Ukraine - The frontier for Russian and American

[ChaharMahal]

1 - Pro-Russian, heavily armed men have taken over the regional parliament building in Crimea and raised the Russian flag (imagine Azaris or Kurds taking over government buildings and raising Kurdistan or Azerbaijan flags in Iran!)

Get the point, but Not the Best Analogy. That region historically was part of annexed territories by Tsar of Russia which Stalin incorporated into Ukranian Administrative region. Russian Flee has been there ever since and never left.

2 - There are allegations from the ex finance minister that Ynukovich stole $37-75 billion USD (billion, not million) from the state treasury.

There is no question that most politicians in Ex-Soviet republic are a bunch of thieves. but that figure is probably made-up and similar to figure that people in post-revolution of Iran threw around.
Ynukovich is very corrupt and indeed would have probably lost the next election.
Ukraine GDP though is only like 300-400 billion per annum and that figure would be 10% of GDP.



All That aside the most important issue remains whether the EU and the U.S are going to push IMF to hand over temporary backstop for Ukranians Bonds which their maturity is around the corner in two weeks.

I don't think Russia is gone take military action. They are more likely touse their Natural Gas Trump Card again. They will press Ukraine to pay back its Gas Debt like they did back 2007-2009 period.

 

[Bi-honar]

Get the point, but Not the Best Analogy. That region historically was part of annexed territories by Tsar of Russia which Stalin incorporated into Ukranian Administrative region. Russian Flee has been there ever since and never left.

Yeah, but they're still Ukranian bro. It's one thing to have affinities to other countries that speak your language or to where you have some ethnic ties, but to bring down the flag of your country and raise their flag is a little sketchy I think after borders have been drawn, regardless of what belonged to who 50 years ago.

I agree that the figures they're throwing out seems really high and I don't think Russia will take military action either - you're right, the gas card is the only good one they can play. Ukraine's financial problems are HUGE and they do need aid and need it very fast. GDP is around 180 million USD btw.

 

[ChaharMahal]

Euroasian guy Bremen is normally very insightful.

Charlie Rose

 

[Mahdi]

The real danger is if Ukraine Eventually does split in two countries. the larger western part has no access to the ports. Hopefully they will see value to sticking to each other as a country.

but that far only a hundred of so people have been killed. When you put in perspective the situation did not become as bad as it could really get.

What's the danger there?...if it happens peacefully, it's for everyone's best. Ukraine still has large Russian population, they prefer to be with Russia. Split the country, let one half go with Europe and the west, the other with Russia, see what happens. Nations are slightly overrated and the comparisons with Iran and Azerbaijan pretty ridiculous to begin with, but I don't expect much more from Canadian experts.

Anyway, it won't happen, but everyone might just be better off.

 

[Mahdi]

Oh look, three ministries for the fascists...great..no obviously, these guys have no support from the west. Hugely unpopular anywhere in the country but hey, let's give them 3 ministries for their effort.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...e-prime-minister-as-default-battle-looms.html

Sure...Timoshenko, the great leader from the Orange revolution and Klitschko are the great hopes of the Ukraine

 

[Mahdi]

Everyone understands the risks of having an ultra-right extreme party as part of a coalition, so that is given. The problem is that most Ukrainians do not belong to that party, nor will they ever join forces with those num nuts. When you have an uprising, such as the one in Ukraine or Egypt, you have people from all walks of life who are a party to the movement. So jus because there are far-righters protesting along with ordinary folks on the street, and just because US is in support of the Ukrainians pledge to end corruption, it doesn't equate to the US supporting the NeoNazis. It is really not that difficult to understand.

I'm afraid that it's not that easy my dear. First, you can never predict, but history has shown us in the past that especially in young democracies whenever established forms of parties fail, people go towards extremists on either side (hell, it's happening in established democracies as well). Right now Svoboda is a semi-fringe party, but they are already made more important than they are thanks to the coalition of the willing. Timoshenko unfortunately is a crook but she will lead the new government, highly probable at least. I really don't know how and what she will do different than 6 years ago. Then you have the gas dispute with Russia which will continue. Unfortunately, I see a bipolar future with Extreme Right support on one hand and Russia support on the other hand as the near future for Ukraine. At least, it happened everywhere else, don't know why it shouldn't happen in Ukraine. Even in eastern parts of Germany far right and former communist parties are among the most popular parties in most areas after either established CDU or SPD. So...again...not saying what was in Ukraine was great but the optimism is a bit naive and taking sides too.

 

[OSTAD POOYA]

I don't think Russia will let this go lightly at all. They will come in with force under the banner of we are protecting ethnic Russians and will seize control. This is similar to what happened in Georgia a few years back even though Georgia initiated the attacks. Russia came in took more land for those two north and south region that are not a part of the central government and the situation is still the same except the fact Georgia lost more Territory. The same would be done here as where Russia will maintain control or aid to control to have its full presence there. They will not backup easily regardless of the push from the west. Russia is still a powerhouse with a lot of control and power and will continue with this on.

 

[parham79]

Putin is laughing hard at Obamas latest invisible redline. This is another redline which he sets and he never acts.Obama is a laughing stock.

 

[Azhidahak]

What's the danger there?...if it happens peacefully, it's for everyone's best. Ukraine still has large Russian population, they prefer to be with Russia. Split the country, let one half go with Europe and the west, the other with Russia, see what happens. Nations are slightly overrated and the comparisons with Iran and Azerbaijan pretty ridiculous to begin with, but I don't expect much more from Canadian experts.

Anyway, it won't happen, but everyone might just be better off.

I agree with your logic but in reality its not as easy as you might think for several reasons:

1. A split of the country would be absolutely catastrophic for Ukraines economy, especially because of the mines in east of Ukraine!

2. The only part of Ukraine that has a huge population with Russian roots and origins is Crimea which is basically lost already. But the other territorities in east of Ukraine are different, many people SPEAK Russian but the amount of people who are Russian citizens, consider themselves to be Russians or WANT to be part of Russia are no doubt minorities.

3.If Russia progresses further and splits the country as you suggest, then it could create EXTREMELY TENSE situations between Russia and countries like Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland etc. and the entire region would become extremely tense and unstable.

Crimea is already lost and that part of Ukraine is just over and Russia has won the battle without barely starting it (like Nazi Germany and Poland). How things progresses further will be very crucial...

 

[Azhidahak]

Putin is laughing hard at Obamas latest invisible redline. This is another redline which he sets and he never acts.Obama is a laughing stock.

In my mind he hasnt even set any redline. He just hold a speech because he had to but he has clearly (and rightfully so) no intentions EVER to get involved in Ukraine, the chance of him putting foot soldiers in Ukraine is 0,00001%. His message was I think intentionally EXTREMELY vague ("an invasion of Ukraine will be costly"). I guess Putin could reply and say "it will? ok thanks for the info I didnt think so far".

 

[Mahdi]

I agree with your logic but in reality its not as easy as you might think for several reasons:

1. A split of the country would be absolutely catastrophic for Ukraines economy, especially because of the mines in east of Ukraine!

2. The only part of Ukraine that has a huge population with Russian roots and origins is Crimea which is basically lost already. But the other territorities in east of Ukraine are different, many people SPEAK Russian but the amount of people who are Russian citizens, consider themselves to be Russians or WANT to be part of Russia are no doubt minorities.

3.If Russia progresses further and splits the country as you suggest, then it could create EXTREMELY TENSE situations between Russia and countries like Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland etc. and the entire region would become extremely tense and unstable.

Crimea is already lost and that part of Ukraine is just over and Russia has won the battle without barely starting it (like Nazi Germany and Poland). How things progresses further will be very crucial...

I agree but the point I had was if the split happens relatively peaceful. The western Ukraine could focus on the tertiary sector and establish itself in a way that Latvia and Estonia have done so far. Not easy but again, better than coexisting together without any purpose.

Russia is what it is...unfortunately as long as it controls the gas, Europe won't do anything and the US has too little interests in Ukraine to be really bothered by it.

 

[ME]

What's the danger there?.....Split the country, ....see what happens. ....
.

Really I have been avoiding challenging your ideas particularly on football, but this is by far the best I read on ISP ever...

 

[Playboy]

i must admit my knowledge on ukraine is limited.i have tried to follow the recent situation but it is very confusing.
there are 2 pieces of news about the ultra-nationalist party that is disturbing to hear as an american.
one is the very recent threat to start re-building ukraine's nuclear stockpile by the coup leaders:

[video=youtube_share;TQoo_iJgIMc]http://youtu.be/TQoo_iJgIMc[/video]

the other is this piece that i read about ex-idf forces who led and fought in the bloodshed that led to the coup.

[h=1]The ex-Israeli soldier who led a Kiev fighting unit[/h][h=2]'Delta' has headed 'the Blue Helmets of Maidan' of 40 men and women - including several IDF veterans - in violent clashes with government forces.[/h]
http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.577114

 

[Playboy]

and it looks like the eu has underestimated the reaction of russia to a potential
hostile nuclear threat on it's borders.they did not expect this move.

[h=1]Russian upper house approves use of military force in Ukraine[/h]
Simferopol, Ukraine (CNN) -- Russia's upper house of Parliament voted unanimously Saturday to approve sending Russian military forces into Ukraine, amid mounting tensions in the country's Crimea region and in defiance of warnings from Western powers.
The vote followed a request from President Vladimir Putin for approval to send troops into Crimea to normalize the political situation there.
Putin cited the "extraordinary situation in Ukraine" in making his request, adding that the lives of Russian citizens and military personnel based in the southern Crimea region had been threatened.
Ukraine's new government condemned the move.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-politics/

 

[parham79]

Militarily wise the Ukraine dosent stand a chance against the Russians. Their airforce consist of a few Mig-29 Fulcrums and a few Sukhoi Flankers(Su-27). Their only really good bomber is he Sukhoi 24 by that is a medium to long range bomber. they would need to use their frogs or the Sukhoi 25's to repel an invasion. The ussians are using their PAK-50's which is only second to the F-22 as the best fighter in the world. they will clean the ancient Ukeranin airforce in hours.The Russian navy is still a monster and they use the t-90 tanks which are very good for ground troops.

The Russians have no intention of going to kiev but only want to secure the ports.

 

[Flint]

Mere days after Obama decides that the US military is just too big and needs to be cut down to size we get this. What is it about Dems that they do this every chance they get? Carter decimated the military and it took Reagan to build it back up. And how does he bring himself to the podium to threaten Russia after little Assad pissed all over him just a few months ago? Oh, and to all those in favor of "international law", could you send your sheriff down there to enforce it?

 

[ChaharMahal]

Flint,

you make me wonder all the time if you are really know-nothing kind of a guy.

or you are pulling a Steven Colbert on all of us.

 

[ME]

Mere days after Obama decides that the US military is just too big and needs to be cut down to size we get this. What is it about Dems that they do this every chance they get? Carter decimated the military and it took Reagan to build it back up. And how does he bring himself to the podium to threaten Russia after little Assad pissed all over him just a few months ago? Oh, and to all those in favor of "international law", could you send your sheriff down there to enforce it?

What would have the US done if the commies took over Canada?

 

[Flint]

Flint,

you make me wonder all the time if you are really know-nothing kind of a guy.

or you are pulling a Steven Colbert on all of us.

What did I say that is not true? His Defense secretary was all over the news proudly announcing that an army that is already minuscule is getting cut yet again to pay for keeping the 26 year old slackers insured. A country this size with worldwide obligations and only a 400,000 man army? Do you realize that out of that 400,000 perhaps only a 100,000 actually do the fighting? There were 500,000 just in Kuwait before Desert Storm. No wonder nobody is taking him seriously.

 

[ChaharMahal]

What did I say that is not true? His Defense secretary was all over the news proudly announcing that an army that is already minuscule is getting cut yet again to pay for keeping the 26 year old slackers insured. A country this size with worldwide obligations and only a 400,000 man army? Do you realize that out of that 400,000 perhaps only a 100,000 actually do the fighting? There were 500,000 just in Kuwait before Desert Storm. No wonder nobody is taking him seriously.

Didn't your buddies Don Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz also want a smaller Army?

U.S superiority is by the way of It's Airforce and its blue water navy. the Army and Marines are forces that are expensive to maintain. They just need to have a core. if they ever need to scale it up like they did in 2006 time-frame. they will simply offer generous signup bonues 20-40K and all the poor folks in American will join the Army and Marines. That has never been a problem.

besides you never thought the U.S is gone deploy a Million troops to defend Ukraine a Country with No Resources that the west actually wants.