What´s all the fuss about??

[Bijan]

I understand that there is a big commotion about the result obtained in Korea and how our chances for qualification are so slim now. True, if we had won we would have had matters in our own hand. But it isn't like we have come to be dependent of too many results now. If we do win the remaining 2 games, the only result that matters to us is that South Korea doesn't lose against Arabia coming wednesday.

These are the possible scenario's:

Scenario 1
South Korea - Arabia: win for Koreans
Iran - Emirates: win for Iran

Table:
South Korea 17 points
North Korea 11 points
Arabia 10 points
Iran 10 points
Emirates 1 point

This would mean that we can either qualify ourselves automatically when the Arabs and North Koreans tie (of course given that we win), or that we can at least have a play off match when one of them wins. The reasoning as in the followingn three scenario's evolving from the previous one:

Scenario 1-A
Sout Korea - Iran: win for Iran
North Korea - Arabia: tie

table:
South Korea 17 points
Iran 13 points --> automatical qualification
North Korea 12 points
Arabia 11 points
Emirates 1 point

Scenario 1-B
Sout Korea - Iran: win for Iran
North Korea - Arabia: win for North Korea

table:
South Korea 17 points
North Korea 14 points
Iran 13 points --> play off
Arabia 10 points
Emirates 1 point

Scenario 1-C
Sout Korea - Iran: win for Iran
North Korea - Arabia: win for Arabia

table:
South Korea 17 points
Arabia 13 points --> aut qualification (better result against us)
Iran 13 points --> play off
North Korea 11 points
Emirates 1 point

Scenario 1-D
Iran - South Korea: tie
Arabia - North Korea: win for North Korea

table:
South Korea 17 points
North Korea 14 points
Iran 11 points --> play off
Arabia 10 points
Emirates 1 point

So if South Korea wins, then we have at least a play-off in our own hands and could be rewarded a aut. qualification if the other Koreans and the our friends from Medina tie (which is quite possible given the stakes they would both be in). And do not forget that despite the political tensions, the South Koreans would want to do their brothers a favour and win against the Arabs. If that happens and the other Koreans win as well, even a tie in South Korea could stand for us! But let's just win to make sure and not be dependent of the second Arab result as well. Yet it is an interesting possibility.


Scenario 2
But let's immagine that the South Korean's don't go all out, which is more plausible, and settle for a tie. Remember that the game is on their home turf, and having beaten the people from Medina already away, they don't want to lose momentum or face at home. In that case, nothing changes for Iran, since if we win our own two games we would at least have a play off match rewarded, and maybe even more. This would be the next scenario's as a consequence of a tie between the Arabs and South Koreans. Then the table going into the last round would look like this:

South Korea - Arabia: tie
Iran Emirates: win for Iran

South Korea 15 points
North Korea 11 points
Arabia 11 points
Iran 10 points
Emirates 1 point

Scenario 2-A
Iran - South Korea: win for Iran
Arabia - North Korea: tie

Table:
South Korea 15 points
Iran 13 points --> automatical qualification
North Korea 12 points
Arabia 12 points
Emirates 1 point

Scenario 2-B
Iran - South Korea: win for Iran
Arabia - North Korea: win for Arabia

Table:
South Korea 15 points
Arabia 14 points
Iran 13 points --> play off
North Korea 11 points
Emirates 1 point

Scenario 2-C
Iran - South Korea: win for Iran
Arabia - North Korea: win for Koreans

table:
South Korea 17 points
North Korea 14 points
Iran 13 points --> play off
Arabia 11 points
Emirates 1 point

Scenario 2-D
Iran - South Korea: tie for Iran
Arabia - North Korea: win for Arabs

table:
South Korea 17 points
Arabia 14 points
Iran 11 points --> play off (better result against North Korea)
North Korea 11 points
Emirates 1 point


Scenario 3
But let's say that with our luck and the Arab grassrolling, South Korea would lose wednesday against Arabia. That would be the least favourable position we want to be in. The table going into the last match would be:

South Korea 14 points
Arabia 13 points
Korea 11 points
Iran 10 points
Emirates 1 point


Scenario 3-A
Sout Korea - Iran: win for Iran
North Korea - Arabia: tie

table:
South Korea 14 points
Arabia 14 points
Iran 13 points --> play off
North Korea 12 points
Emirates 1 point


Scenario 3-B
Sout Korea - Iran: win for Iran
North Korea - Arabia: win for Arabia

table:
Arabia 16 points
South Korea 14 points
Iran 13 points --> play off
North Korea 11 points
Emirates 1 point

Scenario 3-C
Sout Korea - Iran: win for Iran
North Korea - Arabia: win for Korea

table:
South Korea 14 points
North Korea 14 points
Arabia 13 points --> play off (better result against us)
Iran 13 points
Emirates 1 point

Scenario 3-D
Sout Korea - Iran: tie for Iran
North Korea - Arabia: win for Arabia

table:
South Korea 15 points
Arabia 14 points
Iran 11 points --> play off (better result against North Korea)
North Korea 11 points
Emirates 1 point


So, after this very long post with all different scenario's and their calculations, we can conclude that our destiny depends of the South Korea - Arabia result. If South Korea win or if they tie, then we at least have a play off or in some cases even a direct qualification. But even if Arabia win against the South Koreans, the only possible out come that could definitely hurt us is that when North Korea beats the Arabs in Arabia, which is not very likely.

Thus, from the six possible outcomes of Arabia's last two games, only one would count us out: win for them in South Korea and loss for them at home. The other 5 outcomes leave us in control of our own destiny, and even to the extent that in three cases would allow us to get away with a sole tie in Seoul.

This was to cheer you guys up, keep the faith and believe in Ghotbi and the players. Even though I didn't agree with somedecisions Ghotbi made, and which I will write on later, I believe that we are in good hands.

 

[ibrahim]

iran is NOT going to beat korea in seoul. At best, we might get a tie.

saudi will beat nth korea on wednesday, guaranteed especially them playing in riyadh. we'll go through to playoffs and eventually make it to the world up as the 32nd team

 

[mashdi]

saudi will beat nth korea on wednesday, guaranteed especially them playing in riyadh.

Ebi jan.Saudi will play South Korea this Wednesday June 10th.(in Seoul).Saudi's game against North Korea will be on Wednesday June 17th.(in Riyadh).so If Saudi gets 3 points from Seoul,they may not be that motivated in their last game against North Korea as even a draw against North Korea would qualify them directly to WC.

 

[ibrahim]

thanks for the clarification, vali trust me, saudi's will be motivated just knowing they could knock iran out of making it to the world cup so they wont be going for the draw.

 

[Bauvafa]

I think the tie-breaker is not head-to-head results for WC2010, rather it's the goal difference for all group games.

We need S. Korea to beat the Saudis to give us a decent chance. come the last game-day with the Saudis with 10 points and N. Koreans with 11 and Iran with 10 points could be very promising for us. That's our best chance out of all the other possibilities -- a tie against S. korea would give us play off spot. One thing we need to take care of against UAE is scoring goals. So far we have scored 6 and conceeded 6. We need to get 2 or 3 goals past UAE. IMO, the worst case senario is if Saudis beat S. korea and lose to N. Korea.

 

[westwienmaskulin]

thanks Bijan jan..

actually you made things worse for me, because I thought that in all scenarios the fate is still in our own hands. And although Saudi Arabia might want us out and although they might even be sure that they will make it against whoever finishes 3rd in the other group, I don't think that even they will be that stupid to lose intentionally to North Korea and then go through playoffs.
So as you point out very correctly, our destiny is to 95% still in our own hands and we would only need to win against 2 teams who have NOTHING to play for.

 

[spanx]

Any pro player would tell you when a team has nothing to play for, they are able to relax and play better for pride, as opposed to Iran's team who's playing under the watchful eye of 70 million freaks ...

 

[Bijan]

You're welcome Dear Westi! Sorry to have made you even more pessimistic. But as usual you are right in your analysis: we're playing two countries who ain't got nothing to play for. I have good hope of beating them both. I am confident when bagheri and mobali return we have a more creative side and can hurt more in attack because except for the fact that there were no ideas at all from the midfield the ball circulation speed was unbelievably low as well. And both these guys have ideas and speed inherent to their games. But back to the subject, our best chance is if south Korea doesn't lose to the Arabs. How do you see those chances?

 

[Amir]

the question is.... is this team even capable of defeating 2 teams that have 'nothing to play for'?

for the most part, you are assuming that south korea wont win us, and we will breeze through against UAE. i certainly dont see both happening.

 

[Bache Tehroon]

Any pro player would tell you when a team has nothing to play for, they are able to relax and play better for pride, as opposed to Iran's team who's playing under the watchful eye of 70 million freaks ...

Is that way Barcelona and Real Madrid lost most of their last few matches in La Liga?

 

[mashdi]

But back to the subject, our best chance is if south Korea doesn't lose to the Arabs. How do you see those chances?

Bijan jan,

South Korea has a real good reason to play for win against Saudi Arabia.If South Korea beats Saudi Arabia this Wednesday, they will be at 17 points and win the group regardless of their last game against Iran,and winning the group will give South Korea better seeding in the WC Finals group draw.

 

[Bijan]

Now that's what I call insightfull answering Mashdi jan...vaghean ke mashdi hasti! I think we have a decent chance

 

[kambujiyeh]

sorry guys but S Korea has already qualified and will not care on the KSA nor Iran team.

 

[shawshank]

Is that way Barcelona and Real Madrid lost most of their last few matches in La Liga?

well the argument was about the A team going into the last few games without pressure, not their respective youth team with 17 year olds. I know what you mean but UAE is still bringing their best team.

 

[gooshkoob]

All of these scenarios are great, really thanks. but TM hasn't defeated a descent team in a long time, and although I am very optimistic, I think it's not logical to count on 2 wins for us. We have a very very very hard time scoring, we approximately miss more than 90% of our chances in every game, so despite trying hard and playing well, we can not defeat a strong side if we don't use those chances, and I can't think how that would happen. We will have a hard time defeating UAE in Azadi, and we will pull it out, but if Saudis lose to S. Korea as well, Iran momkene mesle ghablan vaghean gheirati bazi kone va kore ro bezan, other than that we can not count on S. Korea to be easy on us. I have many Korean Friends and they love defeating us as much as Arabs do, and they do everything in their power to avoid a home loss to Iran. So don't count that much on them being relaxed and uncaring, they will treat us like their old rival.

 

[westwienmaskulin]

You're welcome Dear Westi! Sorry to have made you even more pessimistic. But as usual you are right in your analysis: we're playing two countries who ain't got nothing to play for. I have good hope of beating them both. I am confident when bagheri and mobali return we have a more creative side and can hurt more in attack because except for the fact that there were no ideas at all from the midfield the ball circulation speed was unbelievably low as well. And both these guys have ideas and speed inherent to their games. But back to the subject, our best chance is if south Korea doesn't lose to the Arabs. How do you see those chances?

I don't see that chance really high of them not losing. Mashdi has an interesting point on seeding for WC but from what I know, Asian teams will be in one group no matter what happens..but could be wrong too.
Anyway...most important thing is that it's still in our own hands.