Here's how things are shaping up:
* "Coalition of 5" also called "Followers of Imam's Line" and "Conservatives Majority Alliance": Largest Principlist group to pick 1 candidate from Bahonar, Mottaki, Ale Eshaq, Aboutorabi Fard, and Pourmohammadi (the latter two having joined from the "Combatant Clergy Association"). We will know which candidate on May 7th (day of the registration).
* "Coalition of 3" also called "Progression Alliance": 2nd largest Principlist group to pick 1 candidate from Ghalibaf, Haddad Adel and Velayati. We will know which candidate on May 7th (day of the registration).
* "The Perseverance Front" also called "Front of Islamic Revolutionary Stability": Another Principlist group has already picked Lankarani as its representative and has no plans to join the other groups.
* "United Front of Conservatives": One candidate to be picked on Monday (May 6th) from Larijani and Zakani
* "The Cabinet Front": This is AN's group and will pick their candidate a week from today (May 11th) from Mashaei, Elham, Rahimi, Hashemi, Nikzad, Baqai, Babaee.
My personal notes:
* I think the race is between Mottaki and Bahonar on the party of 5
* Ghalibaf sounds like the obvious choice on the Coalition of 3, although the others should not be dismissed.
* Lankarani already picked from that group,
* Larijani seems a no brainer for the group with the gayest name.
* Mashaei would pretty much be a done deal for the Cabinet Front - may as well have called themselves the Door Knobs
. But it looks like AN's not putting all his eggs in one basket and all the candidates in this group will register to feel out the Guardian Council - that would most likely explain the May 11th deadline for this group. Does anyone know how long the GC has to reject a candidate from the time they've registered?
* The rest are either reformists, haven't announced their candidacy (like Jalili) or running as independants (like Rezaei)
I would completely dismiss the last group as having any real chance at this point. So with 40 days to go, it looks like the real race is going to be between Mottaki, Ghalibaf, Lankarani, Larijani and Mashaei (pending his approval by the GC).