what next for the green movement

[reza+]

we know mousavi/karrubi et al are/have been discussing the future strategy of the green movement... i've said it here before (a number of times) that the green movement has a sizeable following, particularly amongst the intellectual types, students and the more "affluent or politically open-minded" sections of iran's scoiety... but i still think iri/ahmadi too has a solid (majority) following (particularly amongst the poor/religious types - the majority of iranians)

... but the advantage is clearly with the gov of iri coz, besides having grassroot support, they have the might of the various branches of iri's security apparatus ... control of the media/tv/radio ... etc etc

... in short i don't think the future of iri/ahmadi can be decided on the streets of tehran ... i fully expect ahmadi to finish his term this time as well ... certainly, they (ahmadi/iri) can be a little stretched but i don't think there are enough people willing to further the cause of the green movement ... a great number of people are simply unaware/ignorant of the politics behind the recent election coz they are never exposed to foreign media/internet/satellite etc ... a lot of people (naturally) are reluctant to put their lives at risk and so on ...

so my question is "what next"? what "practical steps" would you take if u were mousavi/karrubi? it's a very complex and difficult question.... should the green movement carry on coming to the streets on various occasions? what if the numbers become lower and lower? the gov is sitting there confident that it can disperse the street protestors with ease... they are not foolish like the shah, who let the situation get out of his control ... we are dealing with a mature, complex and highly organised system of gov...

should they support the likes of rafsanjani (eg) to lessen the powers of the guardian council ... is iri reformable? if it's not reformable, u have to understand it's not going to go away any time soon

how can any movement (within the legal framework of iri) can hope to gain control of political tools of the osolgaras? ... eg, the mosques/state tv/radio (who influence simple folks?) ...the basij/sepah .... is it simply a lost cause? i mean, if there is an election again between ahmadi/mousavi in a month's time, can mousavi win outright knowing that a lot of the influencial decision making centres are firmly under the control of iri/ahmadi's group ... and these institutions influence the simple folks (whether we like it or not, that is the reality on the ground in iran) .... some here say, without cheating, mousavi or anyone else for that matter, would defeat ahmadi... i disagree, ahmadi would still get a solid 40ish percent of the vote plus maybe another 10 or 15 % or so of the undecided who are influened by these institutions and by being promised financial gain and so on

u must remember, iri says the tv/radio etc gave equal air time to the candidates... but for the previous 4 years or so... the state tv had the monopoly of influencing a big (majority) of the population... one of the main complaints of the "reformers" is exactly this.... equal access to the resources of the state at ALL times... but how can they possibly achieve these objectives...

over to you !

 

[ferdosi]

Well Good post....

Unfortunatly our main problems to get rid of IRI the past 31 year have been disunity among the so called Opposition.
Reza Pahlavi as far as I know have been the only person activly calling for Unity the the past 5-10 years atleast, but he hasn't been the least sccessfull in that regard, probably because there is a big distrust towards him. My personal opinion is that he should try to contact/convince people like Kadivar, Sazgara, Makhmalbaf, Sorush, Ganji and Banisadr to start the core/nuclear of the opposition in exile, they should leave the door open for other democracy minded people to join in.

Back to reality, to be honest with you I do not see the above to ever happened. so the only other way should be if Mousavi and Karobi join forces and play a more active role.

Mousavi should announce a cabinet choosing Karoubi as Vice president. He should give out a written publication of how the country will be run as he becomes president (temporary president). They have to have an Economic plan that covers the entire society specially the poor but also industry workers and military personall.


Khomeni managed to fool everybody by promising free electricity and all other utilities and that worked. in 2005 Karoubi was shockingly third and most people where saying that is becaused he promissed every Iranian will get 50000 tomman per month. What I'm trying to say is that Economy does play a major role. Specially poor people want to now if they risk their life there will be somethng in there for them.


These people shoud be informed that in a country like IRan there really should not be any poor, A country with so many natural resources, oil, gas, etc... We should be way ahead of countries like Turkey or even south korea. WE are the only third world country which consistently year after year rank on the top in different math and science competition. We know that we have the brains, we know that we have the natural resources, the only think that we are lacking is a good democratic government. Poor uneducated people have to be informed and educated. They have to know that under a proper government they will do alot better. They have to understand that this stupied government instead of using the oil money to build more industries, universities and create more jobs are spending the money on Libanon, Iraq, PAlestine, Venezuela and sending worms to space....


People want to know that there is a plan for the future, that things will be stable and get to the better if there is a change. An Oraganized and united opposition with a plan in hand will help bringing in alot of support.

 

[masoudA]

1- Moussavi and Karoubi do not lead the Green movement - don't want to lead the movement and on top of all, are not capable to lead it. They are doing everything right in just following the movement and doing nothing to hurt it.
2- what is next is pretty clear - 4-shanbeh Souri is next. Howver, as we have seen, the movement utilizes every opportunity to inflict other blows to IR - inside and outside Iran.

All is extremely well - especially on the international stage. The marathon goes on - IR is cornered - Pasdaran economy is goind down so is the support for IR. Sanctions are going to get tougher.......wait for several significant arrests of Iranian businessmen with IR connections...

 

[ferdosi]

1- Moussavi and Karoubi do not lead the Green movement - don't want to lead the movement and on top of all, are not capable to lead it. They are doing everything right in just following the movement and doing nothing to hurt it.
2- what is next is pretty clear - 4-shanbeh Souri is next. Howver, as we have seen, the movement utilizes every opportunity to inflict other blows to IR - inside and outside Iran.

All is extremely well - especially on the international stage. The marathon goes on - IR is cornered - Pasdaran economy is goind down so is the support for IR. Sanctions are going to get tougher.......wait for several significant arrests of Iranian businessmen with IR connections...

That is exactly what I was talking about, Iranians do not trust anybody.
Just for the sake of question imagine that IRI is toppled on Charshanbe soori, who is supposed to take controll that next day? President RAJAVI?:smoke:

Yeah sure we all agree that there should be free elections and people of Iran should choose whoever they like as their president/primeminister. I'm talking about right the day after this regim is toppled there will be a period of atleast 3-6 month for the country to prepare free/democratic elections. Don't you think this is something that should be decided before regime is changed?

I would rather have someone secular like RP or some of the people mentioned on my list to take over, but as mentioned opposition outside have had 31 years to sit down and talk and unite and prepare a plan for post regim Iran. They had lived for 31 years in democratic countries so nothing have stopped them except for perhaps their ego; to contact each other and try to form an aliance.

Me and Karoubi or Mousavi have probably nothing in common but if a big number of green movement INSIDE Iran wants to back them and Hopefully lead us to democracy I'll back them.

WE just do not have ANY other options. UNLESS opposition outside start maturing up.

 

[masoudA]

Ferdosi Jaan -
The takeover government is all ready - and includes technical people who are already running Iran in every ministry - but are not part of the IR circle of trustess.

 

[Abedzaadeh]

Remember the protestors are not the only challenge to the coup regime. Also in the long term as "khodam" said collapse of dictatorships are a matter of when rather than if.

In the medium term there are 2 "X-factors" that will have a big part:

1) Sepah/Armed forces: - We hear that there are divisions and a great deal of sympathy for the Green movement. The question is do they have any power to challenge the coup side and if so when? Probably not us nor any political analysts have an answer to this.

2) The Economy : - We hear and these days see Irans economy is on the verge of collapse. I have been hearing for the past 2 years that USD/toman rate will burst throught the 1000 level. However the regime has somehow managed to keep things barely intact. If and when they do lose control then I expect more people to join the green that would pose a major internal challenge for the regime.

 

[ferdosi]

Masoud jan I understand that Ordinary people are going to do what they have been doing, like teachers, industry worker, Farmers, and only the very tip of the iceberg will be removed, but we can't kidd ourselves, there need to be a TEMPORARY leader/president/Prime minister to Cordinate and prepare the society for a free election. Now if not one person A FEW trusted well known figures (which could make decisions based on quick votes among them) could take over and controll of the country. But we do need a Temporary government either way, this is something that can't be pushed aside for later....

 

[Chief]

For the leaders, e.g. Mousavi and Karoubi -> Jail or if they are lucky exile.

For the few followers -> looking for new leaders with independent political skills rather than taking orders from u-know-who.

:racecar:

 

[Zob Ahan]

There is no doubt that the IR has temporarily taken some air out of the Green movement by terrorizing people and creating a police state. All of this, and mismanagement by MHM/Karoubi/Katami has cost the movement dearly. Zahra rahnavard on a couple of occasions cleaned up their mess but it was too late. After speaking to some friends and family I gather that the middle class and upper middle class are back to their normal lives and are doing their shabe eid shopping. Evidently the regime has eased up on social restrictions and quite a few new joints have popped up for young people to hang out. I heard in the last few months 3 new upscale bowling alleys have popped up in Isfahan that only had one. My nephew's brother in law owned a cafe that was shut down because of bad hejabi and being a pick up joint a few months back. Just recently he got a strange call from amaaken that wanted him to reopen it and they even gave him some money as reparation. Also a movie that was made in 1980 starring Iraj Ghaderi that was banned got permission to go on screen.

The lower classes who IMHO were not heavily involved in the green movement day by day are getting screwed by inflation. This is another mismanagement by the so called leaders who didn't get the proper message out to them. I think they failed miserably in getting these people out. No revolution will succeed without the working class. The big 3 need to hammer out a message that will resonate with these people and concentrate on this miserable economy.
The green movement is in nuetral gear that is waiting for the next spark that will be spontaneous and not on a special day like 4shanbeh suri.

 

[shahinc]

The lower classes who IMHO were not heavily involved in the green movement day by day are getting screwed by inflation. This is another mismanagement by the so called leaders who didn't get the proper message out to them. I think they failed miserably in getting these people out. No revolution will succeed without the working class. The big 3 need to hammer out a message that will resonate with these people and concentrate on this miserable economy.
.

Nicely Said. That is the key here. There is no other way to go forward than getting the lower class involved first. God knows the economical mismanagement in the hands of AN and his government has open the door for Mussavi and Green to step in and get the vote of this group.

 

[member of day]

قدم بعدی ما باید ساختن بدنه جنبش باشد جنبش بدون سازمان دهی کاری از پیش نخواهد برد
حداقل در کوتاه مدت
باید ارگان های مختلف را در جنبش تشکیل داد تجدید قوا کردو و منتظر فرصت مناسب بود

 

[DireStraits]

I guess IRI hopes to continue until the atom crises is over then to releave people they ma give them some advantage like a form of government with
less irritations be basij. People and outside world are fighting each for their own reason.
So if IRI can manage to get to an agreement with US people of Iran can cry as loud as they can it won't be heard. But if they don't we will face economicall sanctions which will be hard on Sepah. In this regard I think it is importand that people put pressure on Sepah and their families too. Listen to Sazgaras vodeo today and you will hear how these families have put pressure on Sepah from inside.
Like Zobahan I think the IRI has taken some air form the movement. I just can't relate Karobi to it. However I think people must realize they should put pressure on members of Sepah and their family. Even those with the lowest rang.

 

[reza+]

zob ahan - ur completely correct with your analysis ... i've also heard of the so called "relaxation" policy

i think the only way to further this cause is through the available "legal" but restricted channels inside iran itself ... the movement must win the hearts and minds of the poor/religious type but, unfortunately, the movement does not have access to mass media (tv) to influence things ... people like sazegara have no influence on the poor/religious .... things must be done inside iran

i've said it before ... that ahamdi's election promises must be scrutinised and criticised ... his record in gov must be exposed/highlighted to the poor/religious ... his promise to make things better for the poor is a big failure, his claim to fight corruption is a big failure, his claim to make a better puritan society is never going to materialise ...

but how do u expose him/his gov for what he/his gov really are to the simple religious/poor folks? that's the key question ...

 

[reza+]

zob ahan - ur completely correct with your analysis ... i've also heard of the so called "relaxation" policy

i think the only way to further this cause is through the available "legal" but restricted channels inside iran itself ... the movement must win the hearts and minds of the poor/religious type but, unfortunately, the movement does not have access to mass media (tv) to influence things ... people like sazegara have no influence on the poor/religious .... things must be done inside iran

i've said it before ... that ahamdi's election promises must be scrutinised and criticised ... his record in gov must be exposed/highlighted to the poor/religious ... his promise to make things better for the poor is a big failure, his claim to fight corruption is a big failure, his claim to make a better puritan society is never going to materialise ...

but how do u expose him/his gov for what he/his gov really are to the simple religious/poor folks? that's the key question ...

 

[masoudA]

Masoud jan I understand that Ordinary people are going to do what they have been doing, like teachers, industry worker, Farmers, and only the very tip of the iceberg will be removed, but we can't kidd ourselves, there need to be a TEMPORARY leader/president/Prime minister to Cordinate and prepare the society for a free election. Now if not one person A FEW trusted well known figures (which could make decisions based on quick votes among them) could take over and controll of the country. But we do need a Temporary government either way, this is something that can't be pushed aside for later....

Dear Ferdosi - I was addressing it correctly. In every government office theses days there is a "Moaven Fani" or a technical director who is always the main thecnical brain behind running the entity. These people are usually not trused by IR into anything serious such as setting budgets or establishing future policies........ These are the folks which must take over every government entity on day 1. They are already there - and they are already trused usually liked by all co-workers.

 

[keyvan_pars]

Internal armed uprising (without direct intervention of foreign powers)

 

[lordofmordor]

You guys are letting fear, emotion, and impatient have you make irrational responses. Thankfully, iranians inside Iran dont think the way you guys do. They went to demonstrations where all these fears already existed for them and got raped, tortured and murdered and still came out and will come back out.

Remember 18 Tir when the regime tortured, killed, and arrested the students. And everyone thought it was done deal but then came the following movement thousand times more powerful.

You cannot rule over a most majority that are unhappy with the government killing and torturing them forever. Not in a country that is dependent on dealing internationally as they have to sell their oil.

The same way that Iranians dealt with Savak, they will deal with the regime and their agents when the time comes. So, let them use their big mouth in support of a regime that kills, tortures and rapes in par with the worst regimes even invading and ruling Iran.

Barcelona might loose a game and draw few here and there, but it is still the most powerful football team. Now get up breath, and light your day and stop living in the darkness.