None.
The theory is that both Rafsanjani and Mashaei are needed so the rigging of votes does not get too ugly (both factions expect the other to get votes). One of them will be assigned more votes in the first round, and then in the 2nd round the voters of the losing party (most likely Mashaei) will be deemed as "pissed off" and magically give their votes to Khamenei's pick.
In the end both will lose and blame each other.
This is all assuming AN's gang doesn't go bezzerk and throw grenades around.
The theory is that both Rafsanjani and Mashaei are needed so the rigging of votes does not get too ugly (both factions expect the other to get votes). One of them will be assigned more votes in the first round, and then in the 2nd round the voters of the losing party (most likely Mashaei) will be deemed as "pissed off" and magically give their votes to Khamenei's pick.
In the end both will lose and blame each other.
This is all assuming AN's gang doesn't go bezzerk and throw grenades around.
No matter what the votes will not count. The winner will be the one the leader & Co decied to be. What will mashaei do? he will run the same policy that AN had. What will Rafsanjani do? He will try to bring dialog with Americans and remove the sanctions.
No one will create conflict with the leader and the system since the chance to win in an e.v.t. conflict with the leader is close to zero. And if it comes so far the Whole system including them self will be in danger.
No one will create conflict with the leader and the system since the chance to win in an e.v.t. conflict with the leader is close to zero. And if it comes so far the Whole system including them self will be in danger.
I think Mashaei is a goner for sure. Don't forget that Khamenei already rejected him for the position of VP, so why would he be qualified to run for president if he wasn't qualified for the vice presidency. Rejecting Rafi would be too controversial IMHO and at the end of the day having a high profile reformist candidate that does not get "selected" would only go to show that the people don't support the reformists - so there's some merit in allowing him to run and not assign too many votes to him.
I think that was tried once in the 2004 or 2005 parliament elections and it gave the conservatives unprecedented power, which to this day they don't want to give up. At the end of the day, if the belief is that the votes are rigged, they'll rig it to make it look like 20 million more people showed and voted, so I'm not sure if anyone's going to be making a point by not voting either. It's one of those damned if you do damned if you don't situations unfortunately.
The stealing part is a given Shahin jaan, but who's going to steal it is not as straight forward. Based on what I have read AN has handpicked and changed a ridiculous number of provincial and municipal governors in the past year - something like two thirds or three quarters of them! These are the people who will be overseeing the elections in the "shahrestans". So, ultimately if Mashaei is allowed to run, it could be AN's gang that will be rigging the votes to suit their needs. I'm sure the insiders know all this stuff, but who knows maybe they've found a way to rig it in their own favour too.
The stealing part is a given Shahin jaan, but who's going to steal it is not as straight forward. Based on what I have read AN has handpicked and changed a ridiculous number of provincial and municipal governors in the past year - something like two thirds or three quarters of them! These are the people who will be overseeing the elections in the "shahrestans". So, ultimately if Mashaei is allowed to run, it could be AN's gang that will be rigging the votes to suit their needs. I'm sure the insiders know all this stuff, but who knows maybe they've found a way to rig it in their own favour too.
he will be disqualified not because of him having any chance of winning, but because GC has to show respect for the word of "Agha" and other top clerics. When Khamenei clearly expressed his displeasure with Mashai, allowing him to run in presidential election could cause disheartening and confusion in the minds of the Bassijis ranks.
By the way the final tally of votes would be decided by the guardian council, not AN's interior ministry. At this point AN is completely without any support. If him or his interior minister took any practical step (other than whining) without the Masters approval, that "Shahid Ahmadinejad expressway" would be opened in no time!
By the way the final tally of votes would be decided by the guardian council, not AN's interior ministry. At this point AN is completely without any support. If him or his interior minister took any practical step (other than whining) without the Masters approval, that "Shahid Ahmadinejad expressway" would be opened in no time!