Dear Qahreman, it is obvious both from that report and your response that the authors of this poll did not use any method to guarantee they would receive an honest answer; and as such, the results are scientifically useless. If they have taken any meaningful measure or taken that possibility into they analysis, I would like to hear that. Otherwise, their data is not valid.
This is a made up poll by a organization who is beholden to IRG control. The same post is being passed around to cast doubt. I can take a poll for you that shows whatever you want.
Whatever you want. That's how poll companies work.
haha, so funny that as usual the can't even lie right. 8 out of 10? at least say 6 out 10 !! LOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Whatever you want. That's how poll companies work.
haha, so funny that as usual the can't even lie right. 8 out of 10? at least say 6 out 10 !! LOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Actually, khodam jan, the best evidence we have that these polls are bogus, is the reactions of the Iranian government. If the government has the support of 80% of people, why do they even disqualify opposition politicians from elections? Why they are afraid of referendums? Why do they not allow peaceful assembly of opposition? Why do they close down newspapers? They have 80% support according to those polls, don't they? Nothing is simpler then. Allow open election next time. let all who want nominate themselves. Lift Guardian council filter of candidates. Let everyone, not just Mousavi and khatami and their ilk but even banisadr and reza Pahlavi and seculars and monarchists etc nominate themsleves. If you have 80% support, you will sweep such election, won't you?! 
Simply Ken kojaaee ke yadet be kheyr.
First things first, the neutrality of the Guardian Council is something most ordinary people would agree on, regardless of their affiliation. Diplomatic relations with America is also not as big a deal as it once was, in part due to Obama's presence and also since some of the main conservative figures have openly spoken in favor of it. So this leaves us with the question of election legitimacy.
As Khodam pointed out, according to the methodology 52% of those contacted refused to take part! In an oppressive society like Iran where the "wrong" answer can be quite costly, this refusal rate has a much more significant meaning than it does in the West. If these pollsters understood the society they were attempting to poll, this number would have been a huge red flag for them.
While some of those who refused may simply not have had the time, it's safe to say most of them had other reservations, since a pro-regime individual would surely jump at the chance to offer his views to an international agency when the government is facing its worst crisis ever.
Given that the regime has the strong support of 20% of the masses, it's very likely this poll surveyed a full sample of the pro-regime crowd and less than half of its opponents. In other words, whether it was conducted by "a renowned research group" or a gang of toothless baboons, it's not worth the paper it's written on.
Nice try though.
First things first, the neutrality of the Guardian Council is something most ordinary people would agree on, regardless of their affiliation. Diplomatic relations with America is also not as big a deal as it once was, in part due to Obama's presence and also since some of the main conservative figures have openly spoken in favor of it. So this leaves us with the question of election legitimacy.
As Khodam pointed out, according to the methodology 52% of those contacted refused to take part! In an oppressive society like Iran where the "wrong" answer can be quite costly, this refusal rate has a much more significant meaning than it does in the West. If these pollsters understood the society they were attempting to poll, this number would have been a huge red flag for them.
While some of those who refused may simply not have had the time, it's safe to say most of them had other reservations, since a pro-regime individual would surely jump at the chance to offer his views to an international agency when the government is facing its worst crisis ever.
Given that the regime has the strong support of 20% of the masses, it's very likely this poll surveyed a full sample of the pro-regime crowd and less than half of its opponents. In other words, whether it was conducted by "a renowned research group" or a gang of toothless baboons, it's not worth the paper it's written on.
Nice try though.
They even said, the finding on voting preference are not solid basis for estimating the actual vote. Also "When a residence was reached, an adult was selected randomly using the next birthday technique. An initial attempt and three callbacks were made in an effort to complete an interview. A total of 1,003 interviews were completed; the interview refusal rate was 52 percent."
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Regarding the refusal rate, as many people had a question about it:
As those familiar with statistics know, the refusal rate have minimal effect on the results if it is a contact refusal rate. UNLESS, there is a strong correlation between refusal rate and the topic of the poll, there is no effect on the margin of error.
In this case, the refusal rate was a contact refusal rate. That means that those 52% refused to take part in the poll without knowing the topic or nature of the questions.
What is important is the continual rate when trying to see if the types of questions effected participation. Here, the contact rate was 48% and the continual rate was 90%, a very high percent.
Even the contact rate was very impressive at 48%. Please see this following book, page 168:
http://books.google.com/books?id=wQ...esult&ct=result&resnum=2#v=onepage&q=&f=false
The first paragraph mentions that the contact rate in the US was 27% in 2003.
So in conclusion, there is a good contact rate and the contact refusal rate is not abnormal. Additionally the continual rate alludes that there is no strong correlation between the nature of the poll and the participation of the sample.
As those familiar with statistics know, the refusal rate have minimal effect on the results if it is a contact refusal rate. UNLESS, there is a strong correlation between refusal rate and the topic of the poll, there is no effect on the margin of error.
In this case, the refusal rate was a contact refusal rate. That means that those 52% refused to take part in the poll without knowing the topic or nature of the questions.
What is important is the continual rate when trying to see if the types of questions effected participation. Here, the contact rate was 48% and the continual rate was 90%, a very high percent.
Even the contact rate was very impressive at 48%. Please see this following book, page 168:
http://books.google.com/books?id=wQ...esult&ct=result&resnum=2#v=onepage&q=&f=false
The first paragraph mentions that the contact rate in the US was 27% in 2003.
So in conclusion, there is a good contact rate and the contact refusal rate is not abnormal. Additionally the continual rate alludes that there is no strong correlation between the nature of the poll and the participation of the sample.
This is a world renowned institution. If YOU have proof their data is not valid or their method provides dishonest answers then you can become very famous by disproving it.
I am not a survey researcher, and I am sure you are not either. So in this case, I think we would do well to trust the experts on making sure they are receiving honest answers. I would trust that a top university institute would not make a jackass out of itself to publish bogus poll results with shady answers.
Regardless, there is no reason that I need to be defending this poll. This is a top research institute and they've PUBLISHED their results... meaning it's gone through academic review. It has been looked at by more than enough institutes and they have not cried foul. If some forum members who aren't survey researchers do not like the results then it is up to them to prove it.
There is plenty of literature on survey research that shows that this is a normal and typical poll. Just a little on my part allowed me to explain contact rates, etc in the previous post.
This is how survey research is done, and studies have shown this group to be very reliable in predicting the future. But again, thats not my job. You can easily call PIPA and ask and then share with us your answer.
I am not a survey researcher, and I am sure you are not either. So in this case, I think we would do well to trust the experts on making sure they are receiving honest answers. I would trust that a top university institute would not make a jackass out of itself to publish bogus poll results with shady answers.
Regardless, there is no reason that I need to be defending this poll. This is a top research institute and they've PUBLISHED their results... meaning it's gone through academic review. It has been looked at by more than enough institutes and they have not cried foul. If some forum members who aren't survey researchers do not like the results then it is up to them to prove it.
There is plenty of literature on survey research that shows that this is a normal and typical poll. Just a little on my part allowed me to explain contact rates, etc in the previous post.
This is how survey research is done, and studies have shown this group to be very reliable in predicting the future. But again, thats not my job. You can easily call PIPA and ask and then share with us your answer.
Yes, Of course. Look at it from a different angle!
Staunch supporters of Ahmadinejad have been omnipresent during last 3 months, and did everything they could to remove any doubts about the legitimacy of their president.
They marched many times in millions holding his pictures all over the country especially in Tehran, Isfahan and other major cities where you have good phone lines, and people know how to respond to an opinion survey.
Government forces did not even need to crack down on protesters because these were only soosools from northern Tehran, and so insiginficant in numbers that they were swamped by 63% Ahmadinejad fans.
Especially if you look in youtube for videos of post-election demonstrations you only see millions of Ahmadinejad supporters peacefully confirming his legitimacy.
Therefore we have now an stable government in place with a president who has everything in control and is respected by the public inside the country and abroad!
So why the need for a Poll at all? ;-)
Staunch supporters of Ahmadinejad have been omnipresent during last 3 months, and did everything they could to remove any doubts about the legitimacy of their president.
They marched many times in millions holding his pictures all over the country especially in Tehran, Isfahan and other major cities where you have good phone lines, and people know how to respond to an opinion survey.
Government forces did not even need to crack down on protesters because these were only soosools from northern Tehran, and so insiginficant in numbers that they were swamped by 63% Ahmadinejad fans.
Especially if you look in youtube for videos of post-election demonstrations you only see millions of Ahmadinejad supporters peacefully confirming his legitimacy.
Therefore we have now an stable government in place with a president who has everything in control and is respected by the public inside the country and abroad!
So why the need for a Poll at all? ;-)
most iranians accept the outcome vali khob kos kholan miran too khayaaboon kotak bokhoran.
I am wondering what is the motive behind IR hiring assholes to spam internet forums,
could it be they might feel uncomfortable about what goes on in these forums.
The other forum i attend gets a virus attack every two weeks by KOS KESHs from Hezbollah...
Iranians are as happy with the outcome of a HEYVOON BEING THE HEAD OF THE SHIT-E TRIBE as much as a jew being happy with Joseph Mengele becoming surgeon general of Israel.
che ghadr injaa aadam kos o sher mishnaveh.
I am wondering what is the motive behind IR hiring assholes to spam internet forums,
could it be they might feel uncomfortable about what goes on in these forums.
The other forum i attend gets a virus attack every two weeks by KOS KESHs from Hezbollah...
Iranians are as happy with the outcome of a HEYVOON BEING THE HEAD OF THE SHIT-E TRIBE as much as a jew being happy with Joseph Mengele becoming surgeon general of Israel.
che ghadr injaa aadam kos o sher mishnaveh.
Doosteh aziz,
I was referring to General Gozoo's original persona (when he had first joined, some three years ago). Back then, he kept calling Mullahs arabs and Tazi and unworthy of being called Iranian and generally foaming at the mouth while barking Reza shah this and Reza shah that. We later found out why he was foaming. He was making fun of the people who cant stand the mullahs.
This is why most old timers KNOW he's an Eshalic Republic dalghak. This, along with his Hezbeh Mehr and General Gozoo Bull Sh$t.
Refer to his older posts (circa 2005 - 2006) for more details. I will try to dig up some gold for you. I highly suggest reading them, they give invaluable insight into people with mental disorder, and they are great for a hearty laugh
I was referring to General Gozoo's original persona (when he had first joined, some three years ago). Back then, he kept calling Mullahs arabs and Tazi and unworthy of being called Iranian and generally foaming at the mouth while barking Reza shah this and Reza shah that. We later found out why he was foaming. He was making fun of the people who cant stand the mullahs.
This is why most old timers KNOW he's an Eshalic Republic dalghak. This, along with his Hezbeh Mehr and General Gozoo Bull Sh$t.
Refer to his older posts (circa 2005 - 2006) for more details. I will try to dig up some gold for you. I highly suggest reading them, they give invaluable insight into people with mental disorder, and they are great for a hearty laugh
Look at this bit:
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.
Who did they call? Padegane Mohammad Rasollolah?
If you read the methodology for this poll it says that 70% of those polled claim that the economy has either gotten better or stayed the same since 4 years ago.
Another 70% claim that civil freedom has increased since 4 years ago.
About half of those polled to a degree approved of attacks on US troops in Persian Gulf states! :shocked:
And 76% of those polled believe Khamenei should have given his blessing to AhmadiNejad before the elections!
And here is the shocker, 80% percent of those polled said they do not follow BBCPersian or VOA (Radio or satellite).
And only 20% of those polled have a bachelors degree and above...
65% of those who were polled said they do not have access to internet at all!!! (50% of those polled are under the age of 25)
Seriously are you kidding me? Who were they polling here?
Note to self: Always read the poll methodology before you make a thread and make bogus claims while making yourself look like a complete ass.
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.
Who did they call? Padegane Mohammad Rasollolah?
If you read the methodology for this poll it says that 70% of those polled claim that the economy has either gotten better or stayed the same since 4 years ago.
Another 70% claim that civil freedom has increased since 4 years ago.
About half of those polled to a degree approved of attacks on US troops in Persian Gulf states! :shocked:
And 76% of those polled believe Khamenei should have given his blessing to AhmadiNejad before the elections!
And here is the shocker, 80% percent of those polled said they do not follow BBCPersian or VOA (Radio or satellite).
And only 20% of those polled have a bachelors degree and above...
65% of those who were polled said they do not have access to internet at all!!! (50% of those polled are under the age of 25)
Seriously are you kidding me? Who were they polling here?
Note to self: Always read the poll methodology before you make a thread and make bogus claims while making yourself look like a complete ass.
lool they should have had a small print that all their findings carry a margin error of 225%!
farsnews also took a liking to this survey:
http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8806290409
farsnews also took a liking to this survey:
http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8806290409
