Just to clarify what is best for us RE: South Korea & Uzbekistan & get a discussion here going ...
Credit to ElNino99 of PFDC for this post
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I've been reading in various threads, how we should be hoping for a Korea win here, to give us an advantage when we travel to Ulsan in a couple of weeks, and to be perfectly honest, I don't think I agree with them.
As it stands, the group shapes as:
Korea 11 pts +6
Uzbekistan 11 pts +2
Iran 10 pts +1
Let's say for argument's sake, we'll beat Lebanon 2-0. That'll give us 13 pts, and a +3 GD. Now on to Korea vs. Uzbek game [wins by one goal margin]:
Scenario 1: KOREA WIN
A win for Korea basically qualifies them for the World Cup. The first tie-breaker is GD, and they have a huge advantage over both Iran and Uzbekistan. This will leave Uzbekistan 2 points behind TM with them chasing us for +2 GD. This means, even if we draw in Ulsan in a couple of weeks, A simple 2-0 win for Uzbekistan against Qatar will send them to Brazil. Also, I've been reading that if Korea is already qualified, it'll make their game vs. us easier. I don't think I agree. Iran vs. Korea is one of the biggest Asian derbies. It's Der Klassiker of Asia. Korea always want to beat us regardless. 4 Years ago, they were already qualified, and when we went 1-0 up, they threw chicken and sink at us and finally got the equalizer which eliminated us. Korea will never drop their performance against us, and I prefer to face them, if they need something from the game, so the pressure and nerve could get them. Unlike Japan, Korea isn't the most calm and composed team, and could easily crumble under pressure. They were extremely close to dropping points vs. Qatar and Lebanon due to the natural pressure on them that they are EXPECTED to win those games. Same thing happened to them in Tehran when they had a player over us, and the pressure for them to take the game to us didn't work for them, and they ended up losing. I much rather face a Korea under pressure, than a Korea already relaxed, qualified, which can play with a lot more tactical freedom.
In this scenario, Uzbekistan know it's a win or die for them vs. Qatar, and they'll go out all guns blazing.
Table in this scenario:
1- Korea 14pts +7
2- Iran 13 pts +3
3- Uzbek 11 pts +1
Scenario 2: DRAW
If this scenario happens, it puts immense pressure on Korea when they play us. It'll send us TOP OF THE GROUP, going into the last day, and presents Uzbekistan a chance that they'll directly qualify to the world cup, NO MATTER WHAT, if they beat Qatar. Here, a draw GUARANTEES us direct qualification. Unlike Scenario 1, when even if we drew, a big win for Uzbekistan could have sent us to play-offs. A draw here, 100% gives us that spot. I much rather we know exactly what we want, than having our ears elsewhere. If you didn't know, Korea vs. Iran , and Uzbek vs. Qatar games will be played AT THE SAME TIME. Korea will be under immense pressure to win in this case. They'll have to take the game to us, and if they don't score early, the crowd will get nervous and this pressure may end in silly mistakes. They have a knack of scoring late goals, but our defense has been fantastic in this campaign, and I am confident if we counter their early pressure, we'll have the upper hand here.
Table in this scenario:
1- Iran 13 pts +3
2- Korea 12 pts +6
3- Uzbek 12 pts +2
Scenario 3: UZBEK WIN
This scenario QUALIFIES Uzbekistan for the world cup. It'll make their last game meaningless, which means Korea-Iran game is a direct play-off. It'll make it a Win or die for Korea. Unlike Scenario 2, Korea can't be hoping for a favour from Qatar, so maybe even a draw will send them through. This is the worst case scenario for us, as it'll separate one team, from the rest. It kills a lot of uncertainties in the group.
Table in this scenario:
1- Uzbek 14 pts +3
2- Iran 13 pts +3
3- Korea 11 pts +5
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I think a draw is undoubtedly the best result for us. WHY :
1- We'll go to last day topping the group. That's a massive confidence boost.
2- We KNOW , 100%, that no matter what, a draw QUALIFIES us for the world cup. In no other scenario, that's the case.
3- Korea & Uzbekistan won't exactly know what they want, as their faith depend on each other's last games. Both teams will be under pressure to go out for the win in front of home fans, and it could backfire.
Things to note: Korea vs. Uzbek game will be done before we play Lebanon. If it's a Korea win/Draw, then we must go all out to put at least 3/4 goals vs. Lebanon, so that on the last day, if it goes to GD, we'll be in advantage. Scenario 3 is the nightmare scenario.
The only way we could lose in Ulsan, and still qualify, is through either scenarios 1 or 2. Though in second one, if we beat Lebanon with a good margin, then Uzbek will need to BEAT Qatar to beat us to second place even if we lose in Ulsan, and a draw won't be enough for them.
Ideal results for me next tuesday ??
Korea 0-0 Uzbekistan (Preferably a couple of red cards for both sides)
Iran 4-0 Lebanon
Credit to ElNino99 of PFDC for this post
================================================================================
I've been reading in various threads, how we should be hoping for a Korea win here, to give us an advantage when we travel to Ulsan in a couple of weeks, and to be perfectly honest, I don't think I agree with them.
As it stands, the group shapes as:
Korea 11 pts +6
Uzbekistan 11 pts +2
Iran 10 pts +1
Let's say for argument's sake, we'll beat Lebanon 2-0. That'll give us 13 pts, and a +3 GD. Now on to Korea vs. Uzbek game [wins by one goal margin]:
Scenario 1: KOREA WIN
A win for Korea basically qualifies them for the World Cup. The first tie-breaker is GD, and they have a huge advantage over both Iran and Uzbekistan. This will leave Uzbekistan 2 points behind TM with them chasing us for +2 GD. This means, even if we draw in Ulsan in a couple of weeks, A simple 2-0 win for Uzbekistan against Qatar will send them to Brazil. Also, I've been reading that if Korea is already qualified, it'll make their game vs. us easier. I don't think I agree. Iran vs. Korea is one of the biggest Asian derbies. It's Der Klassiker of Asia. Korea always want to beat us regardless. 4 Years ago, they were already qualified, and when we went 1-0 up, they threw chicken and sink at us and finally got the equalizer which eliminated us. Korea will never drop their performance against us, and I prefer to face them, if they need something from the game, so the pressure and nerve could get them. Unlike Japan, Korea isn't the most calm and composed team, and could easily crumble under pressure. They were extremely close to dropping points vs. Qatar and Lebanon due to the natural pressure on them that they are EXPECTED to win those games. Same thing happened to them in Tehran when they had a player over us, and the pressure for them to take the game to us didn't work for them, and they ended up losing. I much rather face a Korea under pressure, than a Korea already relaxed, qualified, which can play with a lot more tactical freedom.
In this scenario, Uzbekistan know it's a win or die for them vs. Qatar, and they'll go out all guns blazing.
Table in this scenario:
1- Korea 14pts +7
2- Iran 13 pts +3
3- Uzbek 11 pts +1
Scenario 2: DRAW
If this scenario happens, it puts immense pressure on Korea when they play us. It'll send us TOP OF THE GROUP, going into the last day, and presents Uzbekistan a chance that they'll directly qualify to the world cup, NO MATTER WHAT, if they beat Qatar. Here, a draw GUARANTEES us direct qualification. Unlike Scenario 1, when even if we drew, a big win for Uzbekistan could have sent us to play-offs. A draw here, 100% gives us that spot. I much rather we know exactly what we want, than having our ears elsewhere. If you didn't know, Korea vs. Iran , and Uzbek vs. Qatar games will be played AT THE SAME TIME. Korea will be under immense pressure to win in this case. They'll have to take the game to us, and if they don't score early, the crowd will get nervous and this pressure may end in silly mistakes. They have a knack of scoring late goals, but our defense has been fantastic in this campaign, and I am confident if we counter their early pressure, we'll have the upper hand here.
Table in this scenario:
1- Iran 13 pts +3
2- Korea 12 pts +6
3- Uzbek 12 pts +2
Scenario 3: UZBEK WIN
This scenario QUALIFIES Uzbekistan for the world cup. It'll make their last game meaningless, which means Korea-Iran game is a direct play-off. It'll make it a Win or die for Korea. Unlike Scenario 2, Korea can't be hoping for a favour from Qatar, so maybe even a draw will send them through. This is the worst case scenario for us, as it'll separate one team, from the rest. It kills a lot of uncertainties in the group.
Table in this scenario:
1- Uzbek 14 pts +3
2- Iran 13 pts +3
3- Korea 11 pts +5
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I think a draw is undoubtedly the best result for us. WHY :
1- We'll go to last day topping the group. That's a massive confidence boost.
2- We KNOW , 100%, that no matter what, a draw QUALIFIES us for the world cup. In no other scenario, that's the case.
3- Korea & Uzbekistan won't exactly know what they want, as their faith depend on each other's last games. Both teams will be under pressure to go out for the win in front of home fans, and it could backfire.
Things to note: Korea vs. Uzbek game will be done before we play Lebanon. If it's a Korea win/Draw, then we must go all out to put at least 3/4 goals vs. Lebanon, so that on the last day, if it goes to GD, we'll be in advantage. Scenario 3 is the nightmare scenario.
The only way we could lose in Ulsan, and still qualify, is through either scenarios 1 or 2. Though in second one, if we beat Lebanon with a good margin, then Uzbek will need to BEAT Qatar to beat us to second place even if we lose in Ulsan, and a draw won't be enough for them.
Ideal results for me next tuesday ??
Korea 0-0 Uzbekistan (Preferably a couple of red cards for both sides)
Iran 4-0 Lebanon
