Markets taking a beating: time to buy?

[Chinaski]

Agha, these are my stocks that i put together around 2 years ago. I just did it to see what happens. I somehow got interested into canadian oil, derailing and kashfe chahe nafte canada and stuff like that and invested a little bit. As i said, its quite even after 2 years. If only i put all that money on Ansell. should i change anything about it?

 

[ChaharMahal]

I am not familiar with all the companies. but it seems like most of them are either energy or commodity related.


Well I am not sure about the dollar amount.
for instance if we are talking about 200K you need diversification.
but if we are talking about 15K then maybe diversification would be over rated.

It depends what you want to do.

do you want to preserve your money (grow roughly at inflation rate)
You can in theory (only theory) buy TIPS (Treasury inflation protected Security)

slightly above it the inflation rate.
in theory a mix of bonds (Muni, National bonds and corporate bonds)

grow in tune with the market.
You will need to buy an index.

beat the market. (you will have to pick individual stocks)

weather you stay in individual stocks or you go index funds.
you need some diversification.

That is you need some energy.
you need some medical/drugs/medical services/ hospitals/surgery tools/bio science.
you need some industrial. (car companies, tractor builders, alloy builders ...)
Technology
Financials.


now if you think you can predict which one of these sectors (let alone which company) is a winner.
then by all means go for it.

but if you are like 99.9% of people. then you have to buy a basket that contains some of all these things.

 

[ChaharMahal]

two individual companies that I have been crazy about investing in
have been Republic services and Wastte management.

I have been looking for entry point into these two for 5 years now. but always see them going higher and higher.

Bill Gates' cascade investment has invested in both of them.

 

[Flint]

two individual companies that I have been crazy about investing in
have been Republic services and Wastte management.

Great picks. At the rate Republic is raising our rates you should make plenty of money.

 

[Bache Tehroon]

Oil stocks are getting raped.

The big names are starting to slash their dividends. Seadrill cut theirs today and they're down 24%!

Ehsan, you mentioned RIG. They're expected to stop their dividend any day now.

Normally I would consider this a major buying opportunity for oil stocks, but it looks like the Saudis are willing to take the entire thing down further. Oil at $60 is highly expected in the market today.

 

[Bache Tehroon]

If anyone feels like gambling, go for AWLCF.

Be careful as this is purely a gamble with potentially a huge pay off. The 36% dividend is probably not sustainable unless something happens in the next week.

 

[ChaharMahal]

Oil stocks are getting raped.

The big names are starting to slash their dividends. Seadrill cut theirs today and they're down 24%!

Ehsan, you mentioned RIG. They're expected to stop their dividend any day now.

Normally I would consider this a major buying opportunity for oil stocks, but it looks like the Saudis are willing to take the entire thing down further. Oil at $60 is highly expected in the market today.

That might be the case for now . I think RIG can even go down to 15s.

but it seems to me that we know that oil will get harder to find.

if we accept the premise; and we accept the premise that world population will continue to increase.

It seems like once the Brazil, China and EU economy grow by Even 1% faster than today we will need commodities again.

It may take 5-10 years. but I am still probably buying RIG down at 20% downward increments. and I am also buying SLB. then I will hold them for next 10 years. but that's just me. as a keynes said. in the long run we are all dead. That's because I already have a good share of the majors (chevron, BP, Total, XOM) which by the way have not suffered too much.

 

[TeamMeli]

I say the stock market is just too risky and unless you are a big player, where you will get dividends, you should forget about the stock market. What worked for me in the past and what saved me when I was laid off for a few years, was the fact that I have some properties. You can always do things with property and worst case if your property burns to the ground you still have the land but if your stock goes to zero then you are screwed my friend. If you insist on investing in the stock market, play it save and invest in an S&P 500 Fitch and Moody's are a safe bet now you have 500 companies so if one or two go belly up, you are not sold out of luck. Remember, the first thing they teach you in business school is to diversify your portfolio and good luck to those of you stock market guys. You have more balls than me.

 

[masoudA]

Think "drone".

 

[ChaharMahal]

any thoughts on investing in Europe?

I was thinking about VGK ETF. it seems to have reasonable management fee.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=VGK

but Is there a more targeted one? say European industrial? European Staples? European Transports?

 

[Zob Ahan]

any thoughts on investing in Europe?

I was thinking about VGK ETF. it seems to have reasonable management fee.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=VGK

but Is there a more targeted one? say European industrial? European Staples? European Transports?

Most European ETFs are country or region specific not industry specific. Even small cap or Mid cap or High Dividend European but few targeted to industry. You want to stay away from the ETFs with low market caps anyway. Just buy Siemens & ABB & BASF if you like industrials. Diageo & British American Tobacco and Henkel & Unilever for staples.

 

[ChaharMahal]

Most European ETFs are country or region specific not industry specific. Even small cap or Mid cap or High Dividend European but few targeted to industry. You want to stay away from the ETFs with low market caps anyway. Just buy Siemens & ABB & BASF if you like industrials. Diageo & British American Tobacco and Henkel & Unilever for staples.

yeah man there was an indian ETF with like 300 million under management. It was way too small for me.

I wish there was an ETF that would invest emerging market infrastructure. India, Brazil, South Africa, China. Utilities, Roads, Power Plants, Dams , Toilets, Water treatment plants ,,

 

[Bache Tehroon]

yeah man there was an indian ETF with like 300 million under management. It was way too small for me.

I wish there was an ETF that would invest emerging market infrastructure. India, Brazil, South Africa, China. Utilities, Roads, Power Plants, Dams , Toilets, Water treatment plants ,,

There are actually quite a few of those.

Here are the top performing international ETFs in the past 3 months. Many of them are junk, but there's overy 400 of them.

ASHS
Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 500 China-A Shares Small Cap ETF 17.95% -- -- -- --
INDL
Direxion Daily India Bull 3X Shares 15.21% 90.24% -3.52% -- --
INCO
EGShares India Consumer ETF 12.97% 41.08% 17.52% -- --
RUSS
Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X Shares 11.61% 21.99% -25.15% -- --
CNXT
Market Vectors ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF 11.12% -- -- -- --
HEWJ
iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF 9.50% -- -- -- --
DPK
Direxion Daily Developed Markets Bear 3X Shares 9.32% -10.57% -37.90% -38.36% --
BZQ
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped 9.27% -4.12% -2.48% -11.91% --
KBA
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A ETF 8.87% -- -- -- --
PEK
Market Vectors® ChinaAMC A-Share ETF 7.98% 6.75% -0.17% -- --
DXJH
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Health Care Fund 7.77% -- -- -- --
ASHR
Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF 7.43% -- -- -- --
EFU
ProShares UltraShort MSCI EAFE 6.45% -6.42% -25.52% -24.83% --
INDY
iShares India 50 ETF 5.96% 32.67% 8.14% -- --
QINC
First Trust RBA Quality Income ETF 5.82% -- -- -- --
SMIN
iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF 5.64% 68.35% -- -- --
THD
iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF 5.25% 6.84% 14.20% 19.00% --
INP
iPath® MSCI India Index(SM) ETN 5.17% 30.25% 6.97% 5.35% --
INDA
iShares MSCI India ETF 4.89% 28.73% -- -- --
EPI
WisdomTree India Earnings Fund 4.70% 37.09% 5.68% 3.99% --

396 Matches

 

[ChaharMahal]

yeah there are ones like EMIF that focus on emerging market infrastructure.
but they are all super small.

 

[Bache Tehroon]

yeah there are ones like EMIF that focus on emerging market infrastructure.
but they are all super small.

ETFs are very new to the Asian/European markets. Even stocks is a somewhat unfamiliar concept to the average Asian/European. Plus, tax-sheltered retirement accounts are very much dominated by North American investors who probably don't feel safe (or aren't familiar enough) with foreign ETFs.

I really don't like the lack of transparency with these Indian and Chinese stocks/ETFs. Their numbers are always suspect and the volatility is sometimes completely uncalled for. You just don't know what the hell is going on.

 

[ChaharMahal]

buying Exon Today. 88 was the level that Buffet invested in Exxon

 

[Bache Tehroon]

Mordeshoore in nafto bebaran! Dahane maro gayeed.

There are some seriously tempting sales on oil stocks. Really really really cheap! There are a bunch of experienced investors telling me to keep waiting for better prices. I think I should listen to them.

 

[Flint]

Mordeshoore in nafto bebaran! Dahane maro gayeed.

There are some seriously tempting sales on oil stocks. Really really really cheap! There are a bunch of experienced investors telling me to keep waiting for better prices. I think I should listen to them.

Last time oil was trading at today’s price Exxon was about $68. It has to go a lot lower, dontcha think?

 

[ChaharMahal]

Mordeshoore in nafto bebaran! Dahane maro gayeed.

There are some seriously tempting sales on oil stocks. Really really really cheap! There are a bunch of experienced investors telling me to keep waiting for better prices. I think I should listen to them.

you can't time the market. you just have to dolloar cost average. buy some now. buy some down 20% again. that is if you believe in the likes of XOM CVX, TOT, RDSA, BP, SLB, HAL, COP

They have the massive balance sheet to withstand this for a few years.

 

[Bache Tehroon]

Last time oil was trading at today’s price Exxon was about $68. It has to go a lot lower, dontcha think?

Well the price of a stock doesn't have much to do with actual numbers and prices of commodities. It's all about market perception. Exxon is a behemoth with enough cash to feed the entire world for a few years. That's what people look at while considering the lower oil prices. Last time oil was at today's price, Exxon was not as rich as they are today.

Overall I don't see a way for oil to stay down. I see major wars and crazy political instability on the horizon. All the bullshit "alternative energy" talk aside, oil is still the thing that makes the world go around.

The question right now is, how long can the Saudis and Russians play the $50 barrel game. As powerful as the Arab kingdom might feel when it comes to oil, I believe they're gasping for their last breaths. They've overplayed their hand this time. A few powerful shale producers in the US and then a bunch of dictatorships (Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and such) can easily make life hard for the Saudis, and they will.