Unless fraud is proven, relying on what I consider the two most reliable data we have, which is the election results and the only scientific poll before the election, then it does mean that most of the fluctuations in voter participation has nothing to do with reformers/student/middle class who boytcotted 2005 elections. Their number is around 3+ million it seems.
The first time voters, however, are not in this equation. There is no reason to assume first time voters all went for Mousavi and there must have been people who voted in 2005 for Rafsanjani who are no longer with us.
Anyway, I did the math again, and need to make some adjustments.
Here is what the poll showed:
Hence as of May 2009, using a simple extrapolation converting percentages to number of voters, you had the following numbers from this poll:
Voter turnout:
89% multiplied by 46.2 million: 41.2 million
# of Voters who had decided already to vote for Ahamdinejad:
34% multiplied by 46.2 million: 15.7 million
# of Voters who had decided already to vote for Mousavi:
14% multiplied by 46.2 million: 6.5 million
# of Voters who had decided already to vote for Karrubi:
2% multiplied by 46.2 million: 924,000
# of Voters who had decided already to vote for Rezaie:
1% multiplied by 46.2 million: 462,000
# of Voters who were undecided:
27% multiplied by 46.2 million: 12.5 million
# of Voters who indicated they were not voting:
11% multiplied by 46.2: 5 million
verus Election Results:
Voter turnout: 85% (4% less than the poll projected; not far outside the margin of error or +/- 3%).
Ahmadinejad votes: 24+ million (8+ million more votes than indicated from the poll, meaning a large portion of the undecided must have chosen him at the end)
Mousavi votes: 13+ million (some 5.5 million more than indicated from the poll, meaning he got some of Karrubi's votes plus roughly 40+% of the undecided)
Karrubi votes declined by half compared to the vote, meaning they must have gone to Mousavi.