Mousavi not accepting defeat it seems!

Jul 28, 2007
3,866
0
#41
Simply Ken,
Boro gomsho vatanforooshe mozdoor.
[ame="http://forums.iransportspress.com/showthread.php?t=58574"]حمله نیروهای ضد شورش به مردم (laest pics) - Community - IranSportsPress.com[/ame]
 
Oct 18, 2002
7,941
0
704 Houser
#42
I will let the dust settle and then we can have a more dispassionate look at what happened. For now, I don't share your view on the results being fabricated; I don't think that is possible the way things are in Iran. We have a polarized society as it is and the polarization runs deep within the government bucreaucy. It is not as if anyone could easily do any of what is being suggested, but I don't want to assume anything a priori. Which means I will try to keep an open mind, as I see quite a rational explanation for the results but I also admit the numbers initially took me by surprise.
Do you deny that people are getting beat up on the streets right now? Or are those videos fabricated?
 

khodam

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
2,458
88
Atlanta
#43
I will let the dust settle and then we can have a more dispassionate look at what happened. For now, I don't share your view on the results being fabricated; I don't think that is possible the way things are in Iran. We have a polarized society as it is and the polarization runs deep within the government bucreaucy. It is not as if anyone could easily do any of what is being suggested, but I don't want to assume anything a priori. Which means I will try to keep an open mind, as I see quite a rational explanation for the results but I also admit the numbers initially took me by surprise.
do you see rational explanation for Ahmadinejad being declared the winner at 11:00 PM by IRNA when the polls closed at 10:00 PM? Do you find a rational explanation for MOI and IRNA not giving breakdown of votes as they did every year?

We do have a polarized society and even government, that's why this is a coup d'etat and not cheating. They are simply eliminating their opponents.
 

SirAlex

National Team Player
May 6, 2007
5,124
0
#44
Unless fraud is proven, relying on what I consider the two most reliable data we have, which is the election results and the only scientific poll before the election, then it does mean that most of the fluctuations in voter participation has nothing to do with reformers/student/middle class who boytcotted 2005 elections. Their number is around 3+ million it seems.

The first time voters, however, are not in this equation. There is no reason to assume first time voters all went for Mousavi and there must have been people who voted in 2005 for Rafsanjani who are no longer with us.

Anyway, I did the math again, and need to make some adjustments.

Here is what the poll showed:



Hence as of May 2009, using a simple extrapolation converting percentages to number of voters, you had the following numbers from this poll:

Voter turnout:
89% multiplied by 46.2 million: 41.2 million

# of Voters who had decided already to vote for Ahamdinejad:
34% multiplied by 46.2 million: 15.7 million
# of Voters who had decided already to vote for Mousavi:
14% multiplied by 46.2 million: 6.5 million
# of Voters who had decided already to vote for Karrubi:
2% multiplied by 46.2 million: 924,000
# of Voters who had decided already to vote for Rezaie:
1% multiplied by 46.2 million: 462,000
# of Voters who were undecided:
27% multiplied by 46.2 million: 12.5 million
# of Voters who indicated they were not voting:
11% multiplied by 46.2: 5 million

verus Election Results:

Voter turnout: 85% (4% less than the poll projected; not far outside the margin of error or +/- 3%).
Ahmadinejad votes: 24+ million (8+ million more votes than indicated from the poll, meaning a large portion of the undecided must have chosen him at the end)
Mousavi votes: 13+ million (some 5.5 million more than indicated from the poll, meaning he got some of Karrubi's votes plus roughly 40+% of the undecided)
Karrubi votes declined by half compared to the vote, meaning they must have gone to Mousavi.

agha damet garm, very well executed.


I heard AN is looking for a SENIOR ELECTIONS ANALYST with good commmand of English and great number crunching abilties who KEEPS HIS COOL while doing his ANALYSIS. AN is already aiming to win the next elections by 143% of the votes.

If you do really well, you may even have a chance of ending up at "BEYT E RAHBARI".

Bravo.
 
Mar 2, 2003
2,677
0
#46
do you see rational explanation for Ahmadinejad being declared the winner at 11:00 PM by IRNA when the polls closed at 10:00 PM? Do you find a rational explanation for MOI and IRNA not giving breakdown of votes as they did every year?

We do have a polarized society and even government, that's why this is a coup d'etat and not cheating. They are simply eliminating their opponents.
1- The IRNA report was not a tally of votes, but a projection. The same as what reformers were doing, but in the context of Iran which does not have exist polls etc, I endorse neither side jumping the gun. Even if one side had a better view of the voting trend and could make a more educated guess.

2- If the MOI does not give a break down of the votes, as you have suggested, then I certainly will be skeptical and would demand to know why? But I doubt that is the case; Mahsouli is basing the final tally from a computation of results from "form 28" which are the provincial results as confirmed by the GC. We should get a breakdown of the votes.

3- I have not suggested that there is no chance of cheating or fabrication, but I just don't start with that assumption. In other words, I keep an open mind and if and when the evidence emerges that there was such a fabrication, I will not feel I was proven wrong. Merely that I had been unwilling to jump the gun before the evidence came in.

4- If there was such wide scale cheating as you suggest, I will be pissed. That would rob Iran of one of the few things that IMO its system did reasonably well. It would indeed make me feel that a president that does have a large enough following and who could win an election on his own had robbed Iran of the trust its people need in their electoral processes. What to do about it then, however, would still be a vexing problem in my mind: pouring into the streets and demonstrating might be a good idea if it leads to correct these problems and creates an atmosphere where we have a more open society. But if the reverse happens instead, with the other side having as many people to throw into the streets and enjoying the guns and security aparatus on their side, then I am not sure what can be accomplished by that dynamic?
 

SirAlex

National Team Player
May 6, 2007
5,124
0
#48
دروغ بزرگ

دروغ بزرگ اصطلاحی است که اولین بار آدولف هیتلر در کتاب زندگی***نامهٔ خود از آن استفاده کرد و نمایندهٔ تکنیکی در تبلیغات سیاسی است. از نظر او این روش مستلزم آن است که دروغ چنان عظیم باشد که هیچ کس باور نکند که «کسی آنقدر گستاخ باشد که چنین بی***شرمانه حقیقت را تحریف کند».

اولین مورد استفادهٔ دروغ بزرگ در این جملهٔ معروف او مستند شده است:

در دروغ بزرگ همواره نیروی قابل باور بودن موجود است.
 

Niloufar

Football Legend
Oct 19, 2002
29,626
23
#49
رئيس ستاد اصلاح طلبان: مسير انتخابات را تغيير دادند، سازماندهی گسترده برای برخورد با مردم

رئيس ستاد اصلاح طلبان حامی ميرحسين موسوی (ياران خاتمی) از سازماندهی گسترده ای برای برخورد با مردم خبر داد و در عين حال توصيه کرد که مردم از خود خويشتن داری نشان دهند
محسن امين زاده طی ارزيابی نتايج انتخابات اعلام کرد : نظر همه ما در خصوص نتيجه دهمين انتخابات رياست جمهوری همان ارزيابی مهندس موسوی است که در بيانيه خود خطاب به ملت شريف ايران ابراز نموده است. وی که با سايت اصلاح طلبان گفتگو ميکرد افزود مهندس موسوی اين انتخاب را يک بازی بزرگ و تقلب گسترده تعريف کرده که نهايتا نتيجه کار متعارض با همه اطلاعاتی است که در باره رای مردم دريافت ميشد.

رئيس ستاد اصلاح طلبان در پاسخ به اين پرسش که از چه زمانی احساس کرديد شرايط به گونه ی ديگری رقم ميخورد پاسخ داد: "از رفتار ستاد انتخابات کشور با نمايندگان مهندس موسوی ما متوجه شديم که اتفاقاتی نگران کننده در پيش است. تغيير محل نمايندگان کانديداهای رقيب احمدی نژاد، ندادن کارت به آنها، ايجاد موانع برای حضور آنان و نهايتا قطع امکانات ارتباطی اين افراد از طريق پيام های کوتاه و تلفن همراه نشانه هايی بود که حکايت از تحولات ناگوار ميداد. او همچنين اضافه کرد خبرهايی در باره جابجايی گسترده صندوق های رای و اقدامات کاملا جهت دار برگزارکنندگان انتخابات دريافت کرديم که مويد اين مساله بود که ما نگران نتايج انتخابات باشيم."
امين زاده يادآور شد از بعد از ظهر روز جمعه اقدامات نگران کننده تر شد چنانکه سايت های حامی ميرحسين موسوی يکی پس از ديگری فيلتر شدند، لباس شخصی ها مسلح حملاتی را به ستادهای حاميان موسوی حمله کردند چنانکه حمله مسلحانه به ستاد اصلاح طلبان حامی ميرحسين موسوی و سپس ستاد مرکزی مهندس موسوی همه حکايت از شکل گيری يک اقدام شبه کودتا در انتخابات داشت. وی اضافه کرد از حوزه های رای گيری خبرهای متعددی از تخلفات گسترده واصل ميشد، همچنين کمبود برگه رای در حوزه های زيادی در سطح کشور, محدود کردن زمان رای گيری و عدم تمديد ساعت کار حوزه های رای گيری از موارد نگران کننده ی ديگر بود.


رئيس ستاد اصلاح طلبان گفت: ما خبرهای زيادی در باره ی آماده باش های نظامی و آمادگی پليس برای سرکوب دريافت کرده ايم که همه حکايت از تغيير مسير حرکت انتخابات داشت که متاسفانه نتايج انتخابات اين نگرانی ها را تاييد کرد. امين زاده در پاسخ به اين پرسش که واکنش مردم چه بوده گفت: نگرانی مردم خيلی زياد است. ما شاهد حرکتهای خودجوش شکل گرفته از سوی مردم هستيم که به خيابانها ريخته اند ولی متاسفانه پليس با آنها درگير شده است. وی افزود ما شنيده ايم که پليس به شدت به ضرب و شتم دختران و پسران معترض به نتيجه آراء در خيابانها پرداخته است که من اين رفتار را شديدا محکوم ميکنم. امين زاده اضافه کرد : از آنجائيکه نيروهای مسلح رفتار بسيار خشنی دارند و به نظر ميرسد سازماندهی گسترده ای با آمادگی کامل قبلی برای برخورد با مردم شکل داده اند ، توصيه ميکنم مردم از خود خويشتنداری نشان دهند. وی گفت: به هر حال ما منتظر تصميم مهندس موسوی هستيم تا به شکل مناسب و موثری از ايشان حمايت کنيم.

امين زاده در پاسخ به پرسش ديگری که موضع آقايان خاتمی و ميرحسين موسوی را جويا شدند، گفت: مهندس موسوی واکنش صريحی در بيانيه خود نشان داده و اعلام کرده که هرگز تسليم نخواهد شد. از صبح امروز هم جلسات متعددی با حضور آقايان خاتمی و موسوی تشکيل شده است. کميته صيانت از آراء نيز جلسه فوق العاده ای با حضور آنها داشته و در عين حال از آقايان هاشمی رفسنجانی و ناطق نوری طی گفتگو با آنها درخواست کمک شده است. وی اضافه کرد رايزنی ها همچنان ادامه دارد و مهندس موسوی در حال مشورت است تا به تصميم روشنی برسد. پس از آن قطعا با مردم گفتگو خواهد کرد.

امين زاده در خصوص واکنش احزاب حامی ميرحسين موسوی نيز اظهار داشت اين احزاب جلسات فوق العاده ای برای تصميم گيری تشکيل داده اند، از جمله شورای مرکزی مجمع روحانيون مبارز که جلسه فوق العاده ای با حضور آقای خاتمی داشته اند.
 

shahinc

Legionnaire
May 8, 2005
6,745
1
#50
. وی گفت: به هر حال ما منتظر تصميم مهندس موسوی هستيم تا به شکل مناسب و موثری از ايشان حمايت کنيم.

.
Mohandes MUSSAVI TASMIM Begir. Are you with your people or are you with the system that just robbed you out of fair election !!!!!! People are getting beaten up for you, arrested for you , don't dissapoint us !!!!
 

SirAlex

National Team Player
May 6, 2007
5,124
0
#51
RUMOUR: Mosharekat hezb (the main Khatami supporters) office is raided and their members are arrested.
 
Oct 16, 2002
39,533
1,513
DarvAze DoolAb
www.iransportspress.com
#52
Ok, I'm trying to put myself in Mousavi's shoes and I see no reason for his silence. What does this guy have to lose? his life? He's lived a decent life. Why is he being a pussy?

He can become an overnight hero for centuries to come. Even if his movement is defeated he'll go down in history as a hero. Not many people get the chance to be a hero.

I don't get it! People say he believes in the Islamic system. OK. So fucking what?!! He can still claim Islamic legitimacy over the current establishment by getting endorsments from Montazeri and other useless clerics.

Rafsanjanie aldang Where are you? This is your arena. Fuck....
 

Ali(ISP)

Tottenham till I die
Oct 16, 2002
25,912
28
Southampton, UK
#53
Rafsanjanie aldang Where are you? This is your arena. Fuck....
there are reports that rafsanjani is under house arrest. who knows if its true or not, but if they have cut off sms, all mobile phones, sattelite network, closed off mousavi presidential campaign office, why wouldnt they go and arrest mousavi too?
 
Feb 22, 2005
6,884
9
#55
Mousavi is in a tough position. The pressure on him by the regime is intense. He is probably getting lectured by the akhoonds and sepah on how refusal to accept the result will end up in pain to many, might end up in coup with many arrested and executed, etc.. This is probably what broken down Khatami.
 
Jun 18, 2005
10,889
5
#56
I think those guys you mentioned are now under house arrest.

در پی پرسش های مکرر مردم درباره دلیل غیبت میرحسین موسوی در صحنه اعتراضات امروز، در محافل خبری تهران فاش شده که وی از زمانی که در راه خانه آیت الله خامنه ای از حرکت بازداشته شده، در واقع در حبس خانگی به سر می برد. ارتباط مردم با وی تقریبا ناممکن شده است.
در همین ارتباط به خبر ستون دست راست تحت عنوان "گزارش یک بسیجی" مراجعه کنید که درباره حکم بازداشت موسوی با سه امضاء توضیحات کافی داده شده است.
 
Feb 22, 2005
6,884
9
#59
So we are witnessing a silent coup in the making with small group of people on the streets and the rest eating pop corn and drinking coke in their homes rallying them on.
 

paymonM

Bench Warmer
Jun 19, 2003
527
0
#60
1- The IRNA report was not a tally of votes, but a projection. The same as what reformers were doing, but in the context of Iran which does not have exist polls etc, I endorse neither side jumping the gun. Even if one side had a better view of the voting trend and could make a more educated guess.




2- If the MOI does not give a break down of the votes, as you have suggested, then I certainly will be skeptical and would demand to know why? But I doubt that is the case; Mahsouli is basing the final tally from a computation of results from "form 28" which are the provincial results as confirmed by the GC. We should get a breakdown of the votes.


3- I have not suggested that there is no chance of cheating or fabrication, but I just don't start with that assumption. In other words, I keep an open mind and if and when the evidence emerges that there was such a fabrication, I will not feel I was proven wrong. Merely that I had been unwilling to jump the gun before the evidence came in.

4- If there was such wide scale cheating as you suggest, I will be pissed. That would rob Iran of one of the few things that IMO its system did reasonably well. It would indeed make me feel that a president that does have a large enough following and who could win an election on his own had robbed Iran of the trust its people need in their electoral processes. What to do about it then, however, would still be a vexing problem in my mind: pouring into the streets and demonstrating might be a good idea if it leads to correct these problems and creates an atmosphere where we have a more open society. But if the reverse happens instead, with the other side having as many people to throw into the streets and enjoying the guns and security aparatus on their side, then I am not sure what can be accomplished by that dynamic?
have they faxed that form 28 to you yet???? we are all dying to see how that form effects your equations .....