I had a dream about this last night and woke up a little worried. In my dream Iran kept rejecting the proposals in the negotiations and then after that process Israel goes ahead and attacks Iran nuclear sites. Who knows, it might've just been a reaction to the news like Iran's war games and such, but at the same time, given the craziness of Poop & Netanyahu combined, I wouldn't discount this possibility from happening, especially since it seems Poop would enjoy the domestic aspects in terms of the Green Movement with regard to a war. Netanyahu has a false image of Poop as being Hitler who needs to be stopped before he attacks the Jews, when in reality the better comparison is maybe to a chimpanzee with rabies in the zoo. I seriously doubt the akhounds would attack Israel first, despite how deranged they are.
Nonetheless, here's what I think would happen:
1) Israel attacks all of Iran's suspected nuke sites over several days.
2) Iran responds through hizbollah/hamas and throws scuds at Israeli bases and military installations.
3) US is forced to come into action because of a combination of fear over US forces being attacked and pressure from Israel and pro-Israeli lobby groups.
4) Iran reacts by hitting hard in Iraq and Afghanistan through Shia insurgents, killing at least 10 American soldiers a day with its actions.
5) US public anger forces President Obama to warn Iran to stop or be hit hard.
6) Poop goes on IRIB like a gay chimpanzee with his arms crossed over his head trying to make himself look taller, saying that Iran won't give in one inch and that Iran wasn't the one who initiated the attack. He asks for Israel and the US to stop and apologize.
7) Obama decides he has no choice and orders the military to attack Iran full throttle, short of nukes. Almost every military site throughout Iran is bombarded with cruise missiles.
8) Iran continues to hit back as much as it can but soon runs short of its shahab missiles and other weapons because of how most of them have been destroyed.
9) The US continues to attack until it pretty much wipes out all of Iran's military installations, nuclear facilities, and maybe even political offices.
10) Iran decides to go down the terrorism route, trying to stage attacks on US embassies or other US interests, maybe even in the US itself. However, all of these are prevented by US intelligence agencies which predicted Iran might do this. Thus Iran can't do much unless the US decides to invade Iran, which Obama would never do, in which case it could make an insurgency movement. But Iran wouldn't have any power to hit back either the US or Israel, and its nuclear program would fall behind by at least 5-10 years if not more.
All in all, I'm not saying that this is what would happen for sure, but that it seems that after Iran was unable to purchase those advanced Russian anti-aircraft missiles, Iran wouldn't be able to really defend itself. And if decided to hit back in Israel or at US interests, its own military would be decimated in the process. Plus, there's a very real possibility that the US would conduct a naval and air blockade of Iran's borders, like it did with the no-fly zones in Iraq.
I don't see this possibility happening for maybe another 6 months, since it seems President Obama wants to go down the negotation route as much as he can. But at the same time, it's not beyond the realm of possibility for Israel to initiate an attack and for Iran to respond by trying to hit back harder.
It's scary for those of us with relatives in Iran and the possibilities of "collateral damage." Yet at the same time, I suspect Poop would enjoy this scenario because it would mean he could pretty much squash the internal dissent at home, arrest Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, and executing a bunch of the younger dissidents, including students. All in all it's a scary thought, and I just wish there were one or two less shitheaded people in the government in Iran to realize the position that Iran's in and to look beyond the tip of their noses on this. For if this does happen, and they do squash internal dissent even further, I would suspect that instead of gaining support from the people like they did when Bush started making threats against Iran some years ago, this time most people would blame Poop and his buddies for the attacks happening and not finding a solution in the negotiations. I doubt people, except for the 5-10% of hizbollahis, would want to go to war against Israel or the US or would think it's right to do so.
Let's all just hope this war doesn't happen.
Nonetheless, here's what I think would happen:
1) Israel attacks all of Iran's suspected nuke sites over several days.
2) Iran responds through hizbollah/hamas and throws scuds at Israeli bases and military installations.
3) US is forced to come into action because of a combination of fear over US forces being attacked and pressure from Israel and pro-Israeli lobby groups.
4) Iran reacts by hitting hard in Iraq and Afghanistan through Shia insurgents, killing at least 10 American soldiers a day with its actions.
5) US public anger forces President Obama to warn Iran to stop or be hit hard.
6) Poop goes on IRIB like a gay chimpanzee with his arms crossed over his head trying to make himself look taller, saying that Iran won't give in one inch and that Iran wasn't the one who initiated the attack. He asks for Israel and the US to stop and apologize.
7) Obama decides he has no choice and orders the military to attack Iran full throttle, short of nukes. Almost every military site throughout Iran is bombarded with cruise missiles.
8) Iran continues to hit back as much as it can but soon runs short of its shahab missiles and other weapons because of how most of them have been destroyed.
9) The US continues to attack until it pretty much wipes out all of Iran's military installations, nuclear facilities, and maybe even political offices.
10) Iran decides to go down the terrorism route, trying to stage attacks on US embassies or other US interests, maybe even in the US itself. However, all of these are prevented by US intelligence agencies which predicted Iran might do this. Thus Iran can't do much unless the US decides to invade Iran, which Obama would never do, in which case it could make an insurgency movement. But Iran wouldn't have any power to hit back either the US or Israel, and its nuclear program would fall behind by at least 5-10 years if not more.
All in all, I'm not saying that this is what would happen for sure, but that it seems that after Iran was unable to purchase those advanced Russian anti-aircraft missiles, Iran wouldn't be able to really defend itself. And if decided to hit back in Israel or at US interests, its own military would be decimated in the process. Plus, there's a very real possibility that the US would conduct a naval and air blockade of Iran's borders, like it did with the no-fly zones in Iraq.
I don't see this possibility happening for maybe another 6 months, since it seems President Obama wants to go down the negotation route as much as he can. But at the same time, it's not beyond the realm of possibility for Israel to initiate an attack and for Iran to respond by trying to hit back harder.
It's scary for those of us with relatives in Iran and the possibilities of "collateral damage." Yet at the same time, I suspect Poop would enjoy this scenario because it would mean he could pretty much squash the internal dissent at home, arrest Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, and executing a bunch of the younger dissidents, including students. All in all it's a scary thought, and I just wish there were one or two less shitheaded people in the government in Iran to realize the position that Iran's in and to look beyond the tip of their noses on this. For if this does happen, and they do squash internal dissent even further, I would suspect that instead of gaining support from the people like they did when Bush started making threats against Iran some years ago, this time most people would blame Poop and his buddies for the attacks happening and not finding a solution in the negotiations. I doubt people, except for the 5-10% of hizbollahis, would want to go to war against Israel or the US or would think it's right to do so.
Let's all just hope this war doesn't happen.
