I think Israel can make a short run air strike with relative success but won't afford the aftermath. They won't do it without the nod from the US anyway but so far US did not find an attack cost-effective. No doubt Iran would be destroyed in any military conflict with the West and its infrasructure would be reduced to rubbles but it would cause so much unstablity in the region that is not to the benefit of anyone.
I have never agreed with the assertion that the existence of the IR is somehow beneficial to the Israelis, nor will I ever. The IR and its proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria for some parts) are existential threats to Isreal and just like Isreal has dealt with all existential threats in the past 60 years, they have dealt very decissively with these 3 proxies in the past 4 years - the only remaining threat which has not yet been dealt with is Iran. Isreal may have lost the public relations war with Hezbollah, but their strategy has been and remains to show brute maximum force in dealing with these situations to insure they are contained. Hezbollah and Hamas have both been "contained", so has Syria after the Isrealis successfully pentrated their air defence system without even being detected (and the entire Syrian-Isreali border is lined with the S-200 system - Iran's pride and joy for mid to high-altitude air defence). The only saving grace for Iran has been geography and the logistical issues for the Isrealis to fly over at least 3 other countries to reach Iran, but should they feel the need, have no doubt that they will try it.
Having said that, they really don't need to go to those lengths to draw international attention to their cause and pull the Iranians into an all out conflict in which they (the Iranians look like the agressors). With their new Dolphin class submarines (nuclear capable) being stationed in the Persian Gulf, all they need to do is launch a few non-nuclear cruise missiles at Bushehr. You only need one hit and some damage to make the Iranian air-defences look weak and humble the regime. You can rest assured that this regime will not just sit there and accept the fact that their nuclear site was hit by the Israelis after all this huff and puff about the Islamic Republic being a force to be contended with, air defence manouvers, military parades, etc.. Their only recourse is to reciprocate the attack and in the best case scenario they have to target the Israeli nuclear reactors or military bases with their medium range ballistic missiles (MRBM's), as targetting any civilian sector will surely draw the US into the conflict.
In order to score a hit with an MRBM, Iran has to launch missiles that will pass through at least 2 countries' airspace before reaching Isreal. That in itself becomes a logistical nightmare for Iran (i.e. the ball's in Iran's court) as no country in the world will be pleased with missiles flying over its territory. It is much more difficult for the Iranians to score a 2000+ km hit, than the Israelis scoring a max. 200 km hit - that's just simple math even if the 2 countries were technologically at par, which they are not. So, either Iran will have to sit there and take the beating without any real response in which case this regime will look weak and feable, or they're going to have to go all-out and engage in assymetric warfare in the Persian Gulf, Iraq or Afghanistan - all of which will undoubtedly pul the US into the conflict and ultimately mean the end of this regime.
The US has over 1000 AGM-86's (cruise missiles) in its arsenal which they need to get rid of as they have been discontinued and will become obsolete. Even with the quoted accuracy (kill ratio) of the Tor-M1 (0.6), only 25% of those missiles are required to take out ALL Iranian air-defence platforms (of any real value) including the Tor-M1 (29), SA-2's (45), S-200's (10) and the SA-6's (8). So, we can carry on the way we're doing for as long as we want with the geniuses running our country thinking that we reallydo have some modern, technologically advanced miliatry, but at the end of the day, everything you hear from the IR is much ado about nothing.
Having said that, they really don't need to go to those lengths to draw international attention to their cause and pull the Iranians into an all out conflict in which they (the Iranians look like the agressors). With their new Dolphin class submarines (nuclear capable) being stationed in the Persian Gulf, all they need to do is launch a few non-nuclear cruise missiles at Bushehr. You only need one hit and some damage to make the Iranian air-defences look weak and humble the regime. You can rest assured that this regime will not just sit there and accept the fact that their nuclear site was hit by the Israelis after all this huff and puff about the Islamic Republic being a force to be contended with, air defence manouvers, military parades, etc.. Their only recourse is to reciprocate the attack and in the best case scenario they have to target the Israeli nuclear reactors or military bases with their medium range ballistic missiles (MRBM's), as targetting any civilian sector will surely draw the US into the conflict.
In order to score a hit with an MRBM, Iran has to launch missiles that will pass through at least 2 countries' airspace before reaching Isreal. That in itself becomes a logistical nightmare for Iran (i.e. the ball's in Iran's court) as no country in the world will be pleased with missiles flying over its territory. It is much more difficult for the Iranians to score a 2000+ km hit, than the Israelis scoring a max. 200 km hit - that's just simple math even if the 2 countries were technologically at par, which they are not. So, either Iran will have to sit there and take the beating without any real response in which case this regime will look weak and feable, or they're going to have to go all-out and engage in assymetric warfare in the Persian Gulf, Iraq or Afghanistan - all of which will undoubtedly pul the US into the conflict and ultimately mean the end of this regime.
The US has over 1000 AGM-86's (cruise missiles) in its arsenal which they need to get rid of as they have been discontinued and will become obsolete. Even with the quoted accuracy (kill ratio) of the Tor-M1 (0.6), only 25% of those missiles are required to take out ALL Iranian air-defence platforms (of any real value) including the Tor-M1 (29), SA-2's (45), S-200's (10) and the SA-6's (8). So, we can carry on the way we're doing for as long as we want with the geniuses running our country thinking that we reallydo have some modern, technologically advanced miliatry, but at the end of the day, everything you hear from the IR is much ado about nothing.