My note on this is that many Iranians learn that they should stay away
from politics.
When I was in Iran i had to go from some where "Fatemi" to Vanak. I was waiting to get a taxi. Sudendly a motor cycle came and said seat back. I
asked the price he said never mind. He drived very crazy all the way even in the opposite direction. When we reached to Vanak I gave him 2000 but he asked for 5000. We started to argue then some people who were walking joined and said this is the price. I said we go to the polic station
who were in the other side of the streets. He said I say 5000 now but if we go to police I will say more.
When we were at the police station I noticed that the police knew him or was his friend. .... The policeman didn't care about how he riding a motorcycle was driving against all the rules. He said pay him 3000 to end this.
I knew then those people who were walking in streets, the motocycle driver and police were there to control people.
Those guys walking in street were watching around once something unusual was going on they took the mobile and repoted that to police.
The police then would send a number of their own guys to take care of
the issue.
That is why I wrote IRI is controlling every thing. It is so difficult for people to get organized against this system.
from politics.
When I was in Iran i had to go from some where "Fatemi" to Vanak. I was waiting to get a taxi. Sudendly a motor cycle came and said seat back. I
asked the price he said never mind. He drived very crazy all the way even in the opposite direction. When we reached to Vanak I gave him 2000 but he asked for 5000. We started to argue then some people who were walking joined and said this is the price. I said we go to the polic station
who were in the other side of the streets. He said I say 5000 now but if we go to police I will say more.
When we were at the police station I noticed that the police knew him or was his friend. .... The policeman didn't care about how he riding a motorcycle was driving against all the rules. He said pay him 3000 to end this.
I knew then those people who were walking in streets, the motocycle driver and police were there to control people.
Those guys walking in street were watching around once something unusual was going on they took the mobile and repoted that to police.
The police then would send a number of their own guys to take care of
the issue.
That is why I wrote IRI is controlling every thing. It is so difficult for people to get organized against this system.
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There are too many issues to cover in regards to this topic and I could easily go on for hours, but the main points are:
1) In this Parliament-AN or Parliament-Khatami comparisons, you are missing the BIG factor: the leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Basically, during Khatami, the leader somehow organized 7th parliament conservatives to counter Khatami's decisions in order to prepare for the 9th presidential elections. In AN era, it is the other way around that is most of the parliament were supporting An when he started, but after a while they got mad at AN in one way or another.
Even between conservatives, there is a big fight going on now, e.g. Mottaki (Ali Larijani's buddy) fired by AN in an embarrassing fashion and judiciary's accusations against AN's vice president Rahimi. Another one is Sepah, clerics and classic conservatives' concerted attacks on AN's buddy Mashaei, an influential relative and ally of him.
Now, even with almost no reformers in the current parliament, those conservatives do not like AN's defiance of their proposed laws and belittling parliaments' role (AN in fact reversing Imam Khomeini's original statement that Majlis is at the pinnacle of affairs calling it obsolete for current power distribution!).
Parliament from time to time says things against AN's antics, but in the end is forced by the leader to keep it clean and do not block the execution. If it Khatami, they would have impeached him by now.
In implementing this plan, AN defied majlis in several aspects: he only started executed it for 3 months rather than the whole 1389 year, hence channeling the rest of subsidies to whatever needs he deems fit without majlis's approval. He took many items' prices to the Persian Gulf price levels OVERNIGHT rather than 3 years that Majlis had planned.
But in the end, out of fear of national security and based on leaders and sepah's warning that there should not be any significant opposition to this plan due to "national security" concerns, the parliament has been very ineffective in getting AN to execute their plan.
2) Indeed, one of the very few positive characteristics of AN is his high confidence and assertiveness and the big protection he provides to a very few key allies of him. In fact AN sometimes easily stands up to leader himself (e.g. appointment of special envoys and defiance of the leader). Now, imagine what Khatami could have done in those golden days (especially 1997-2000) had he have one a bit of AN's confidence and assertiveness. He did not have that and he did not protect his biggest ministers (Nouri and Mohajerani) hence giving judiciary, guardian council and Sepah the green light to sabotage his every decision and his cabinet. He never stood up to the leader's behind the scenes role in many of these crises (1 crisis every 9 days according to Khatami) and he was reduced to a facilitator (tadarokatchi) in his own words, not a decision maker.
So, based on the very limited talent pool that IR had, the best compromise would have been to put AN's balls on Khatami and let him be president.
3) As much as assertiveness and quick decision making is AN's positive point, his extreme reliance on his limited ideas and lack of shrewd advisers has created a lot of disasters.
An example would be the self-employment plan. $25 billion dollars later, he found out that very little number of jobs had been created while huge injection of the money into the society fuelled inflation and unprecedented real estate bubble (150-200% in one year).
4) His petty behavior has blocked many preparations for implementation of such a huge plan. example: based on majlis plans, Tehran's subway system was due to receive $2 billion dollars in cash to invest in expanding the lines and trains. This did not materialize even after two years, why? Mayor is Ghalibaf: AN's foe and head of subway is Rafsanjani's son. So, AN makes things so personal that he hugely damages the society.
The "44 rule plan" that was supposed to privatize huge government-owned companies has been a complete failure. 85% of such companies (worth tens of billions of dollars have been sold to FAKE private entities created by Sepah, basij and some ayatollah's. And almost all of them were priced for much less that their actual worth. So instead of bringing them to profitability, these Sepahis can sell the companies assets and live off those for quite a long time. Too many examples: refer to recent majlis reports and to Palizdar reports.
5) This subsidy cut, up until last year was part of a much bigger plan called "Economic Revolution plan", tarh tahavol eghtesadi.
It was supposed to impose tax on many professions (specially rich tradesmen), attract foreign investment, making economic transaction much more transparent etc etc.
In the end, AN made another trick and reduced the whole plan to subsidy cutting only. He did not cover any of the mentioned plans as he knows BAZAAR is too powerful to fight against (example: gold traders defiance of AN's proposed tax reforms and AN practically backing off that plan.). The IR knows BAZAAR was very influential in bringing them to the power and they have to keep them happy.
The average Joe they can always deal with. The very poor people will be happy with getting cash subsidies from AN (hence more votes for his group in the next election) and the middle class will be dealt with using force and oppression, not to forget very difficult financial condition that will discourage them of thinking about any protest and keep them focused on earning bread and surviving.
There are a lot more issues to cover, but that's it for now.
:work-hard:
1) In this Parliament-AN or Parliament-Khatami comparisons, you are missing the BIG factor: the leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Basically, during Khatami, the leader somehow organized 7th parliament conservatives to counter Khatami's decisions in order to prepare for the 9th presidential elections. In AN era, it is the other way around that is most of the parliament were supporting An when he started, but after a while they got mad at AN in one way or another.
Even between conservatives, there is a big fight going on now, e.g. Mottaki (Ali Larijani's buddy) fired by AN in an embarrassing fashion and judiciary's accusations against AN's vice president Rahimi. Another one is Sepah, clerics and classic conservatives' concerted attacks on AN's buddy Mashaei, an influential relative and ally of him.
Now, even with almost no reformers in the current parliament, those conservatives do not like AN's defiance of their proposed laws and belittling parliaments' role (AN in fact reversing Imam Khomeini's original statement that Majlis is at the pinnacle of affairs calling it obsolete for current power distribution!).
Parliament from time to time says things against AN's antics, but in the end is forced by the leader to keep it clean and do not block the execution. If it Khatami, they would have impeached him by now.
In implementing this plan, AN defied majlis in several aspects: he only started executed it for 3 months rather than the whole 1389 year, hence channeling the rest of subsidies to whatever needs he deems fit without majlis's approval. He took many items' prices to the Persian Gulf price levels OVERNIGHT rather than 3 years that Majlis had planned.
But in the end, out of fear of national security and based on leaders and sepah's warning that there should not be any significant opposition to this plan due to "national security" concerns, the parliament has been very ineffective in getting AN to execute their plan.
2) Indeed, one of the very few positive characteristics of AN is his high confidence and assertiveness and the big protection he provides to a very few key allies of him. In fact AN sometimes easily stands up to leader himself (e.g. appointment of special envoys and defiance of the leader). Now, imagine what Khatami could have done in those golden days (especially 1997-2000) had he have one a bit of AN's confidence and assertiveness. He did not have that and he did not protect his biggest ministers (Nouri and Mohajerani) hence giving judiciary, guardian council and Sepah the green light to sabotage his every decision and his cabinet. He never stood up to the leader's behind the scenes role in many of these crises (1 crisis every 9 days according to Khatami) and he was reduced to a facilitator (tadarokatchi) in his own words, not a decision maker.
So, based on the very limited talent pool that IR had, the best compromise would have been to put AN's balls on Khatami and let him be president.
3) As much as assertiveness and quick decision making is AN's positive point, his extreme reliance on his limited ideas and lack of shrewd advisers has created a lot of disasters.
An example would be the self-employment plan. $25 billion dollars later, he found out that very little number of jobs had been created while huge injection of the money into the society fuelled inflation and unprecedented real estate bubble (150-200% in one year).
4) His petty behavior has blocked many preparations for implementation of such a huge plan. example: based on majlis plans, Tehran's subway system was due to receive $2 billion dollars in cash to invest in expanding the lines and trains. This did not materialize even after two years, why? Mayor is Ghalibaf: AN's foe and head of subway is Rafsanjani's son. So, AN makes things so personal that he hugely damages the society.
The "44 rule plan" that was supposed to privatize huge government-owned companies has been a complete failure. 85% of such companies (worth tens of billions of dollars have been sold to FAKE private entities created by Sepah, basij and some ayatollah's. And almost all of them were priced for much less that their actual worth. So instead of bringing them to profitability, these Sepahis can sell the companies assets and live off those for quite a long time. Too many examples: refer to recent majlis reports and to Palizdar reports.
5) This subsidy cut, up until last year was part of a much bigger plan called "Economic Revolution plan", tarh tahavol eghtesadi.
It was supposed to impose tax on many professions (specially rich tradesmen), attract foreign investment, making economic transaction much more transparent etc etc.
In the end, AN made another trick and reduced the whole plan to subsidy cutting only. He did not cover any of the mentioned plans as he knows BAZAAR is too powerful to fight against (example: gold traders defiance of AN's proposed tax reforms and AN practically backing off that plan.). The IR knows BAZAAR was very influential in bringing them to the power and they have to keep them happy.
The average Joe they can always deal with. The very poor people will be happy with getting cash subsidies from AN (hence more votes for his group in the next election) and the middle class will be dealt with using force and oppression, not to forget very difficult financial condition that will discourage them of thinking about any protest and keep them focused on earning bread and surviving.
There are a lot more issues to cover, but that's it for now.
:work-hard:
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This is a great point. Who is going to stand up to Bazar in Iran ?
These guys have been sucking the blood out of Iranian far longer than Sepah and Basij. They support political figures and movement that make money for them and with their traditional religous roots, do not care about freedom or ...
There should be tighter restriction in place for them or atleast a tax reform for the these people.
These guys have been sucking the blood out of Iranian far longer than Sepah and Basij. They support political figures and movement that make money for them and with their traditional religous roots, do not care about freedom or ...
There should be tighter restriction in place for them or atleast a tax reform for the these people.
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Good post.
Another aspect of this subsidy removal that most people don't realize is that the gov't might have given huge subsidies in gasoline but they made up for it in the price of automobiles and other goods that they controlled. Lets take a Nissan Maxima which in Iran costs $50,000 and in other parts of the world $28,000. Right there the consumer pays for all that subsidized gasoline upfront. Considering the inflation level I would rather take the money upfront rather than over the years. One might argue that the average iranian doesn't drive a Maxima but this is true about any car and its comparables. Take any car/motorcycle/traktor and works out to be the same.