FP jan, note that Rowhani was khamenei's representative in the national security council at the time that Khamenei himself was Rafsanjani's man! That was starting in 1989. The rift between Khamenei and Rafsanjani started years later during Khatami and culminated by AN's election in 2005 when Khamenei finally broke free of Rafi, and subsequently removed Rowhani from his position.
Also Remember that Rowhani was Rafsanjani's deputy (as the commander of all armed force and war efforts) during the war and remained close to him.
Also regardless of the past, in this particular election show there was no doubt that Rowhani was Rafsanjani's favourite candidate.
I absolutely agree with your conclusion that Khamenei let Rowhani win in hope of defusing the pressure from the west, however in doing so I think he accepted the risk of placing a Rafsanjani protege (though the closest to the right faction) in charge. Rowhani is no reformist though, so I have no illusion about him to improve the situation regarding civil rights and freedoms.
Also Remember that Rowhani was Rafsanjani's deputy (as the commander of all armed force and war efforts) during the war and remained close to him.
Also regardless of the past, in this particular election show there was no doubt that Rowhani was Rafsanjani's favourite candidate.
I absolutely agree with your conclusion that Khamenei let Rowhani win in hope of defusing the pressure from the west, however in doing so I think he accepted the risk of placing a Rafsanjani protege (though the closest to the right faction) in charge. Rowhani is no reformist though, so I have no illusion about him to improve the situation regarding civil rights and freedoms.
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From one of the horses' mounths:
پیروزی روحانی پیروزی گفتمان اعتدال بود نه سلطه اصلاح***طلبان
حماسه ۲۴ خرداد دلیل حقانیت نظام و شرمندگی مدعیان تقلب ۸۸ است
پیروزی روحانی پیروزی گفتمان اعتدال بود نه سلطه اصلاح***طلبان
حماسه ۲۴ خرداد دلیل حقانیت نظام و شرمندگی مدعیان تقلب ۸۸ است
I don't read too much into it Deerouz jaan, but I think the psyche of the regime carries some importance in how they move forward. Based on the celebrations on the streets yesterday and Khodam's posts you'd get the feeling that people view Rohani's "election from the selections" as a victory to the people and that the regime has conceded the need for reform. But when you read regime mouthpieces, they have the exact opposite spin on the situation, that this was a victory for nezam and that it just went to show how popular it is and why it doesn't need to change/reform.
Since those two view points are in the exact opposite ends of the spectrum, only one of them can represent the reality of the situation, or at least be much closer to the reality of the situation. At the moment, I'm thinking it's the latter, based on the fact that the people have been consistently defeated in the last 35 years and their views has been consistently proven to be wrong in the long term. The system always has and continues to be cunning and enforcing its will on the people, while giving them the illusion that they have scored a victory here and there. This is starting to look very much like one of those situations again IMHO.
Of course, only time will tell...
Since those two view points are in the exact opposite ends of the spectrum, only one of them can represent the reality of the situation, or at least be much closer to the reality of the situation. At the moment, I'm thinking it's the latter, based on the fact that the people have been consistently defeated in the last 35 years and their views has been consistently proven to be wrong in the long term. The system always has and continues to be cunning and enforcing its will on the people, while giving them the illusion that they have scored a victory here and there. This is starting to look very much like one of those situations again IMHO.
Of course, only time will tell...
I agree that there is much left to be done, but it's hard to argue that this was a little step in the right direction.
As people were chanting: رای ما رو دزدیدن، دارن قسطی پس میدن
And probably the most relevant is what Sohrab's mother says (who didn't vote):
http://masihalinejad.com/?p=6244
As people were chanting: رای ما رو دزدیدن، دارن قسطی پس میدن
And probably the most relevant is what Sohrab's mother says (who didn't vote):
http://masihalinejad.com/?p=6244
My 2 cents about the whole election and nezam.
We should not act or speak the way it shows how disconnected we are with realities inside Iran and the Iranians who live there and ultimately must live with the consequences of what ever they do wrt dealing with this regime. I don’t, even dare to question Iranians political maturity, these are the same people who opened the doors of a building called Parliament for the first time in the history of the entire continent of the Asia, they are only 107 years older and wiser, yes they had a miscalculation in 1979 and they are dearly paying for it but determined to correct it and they will.
The notion of “regime change” has never left their mind only getting stronger and stronger by day, only the strategy and the tactics for achieving it is changing depending on the ambience of the battle field and position of the other side. With experience of 2009 under their belt the idea of regime change by violence has been dropped (rightfully so) and obviously they have decided to attack this regime from inside until it implodes within. In this endeavor they had many small victories during this past 4 years.
As I have mentioned before a War is composed of several battles and you don’t have to win each and every one to claim victory for the whole war, you win some you loose some and when you loose you just fall back, refresh, regroup, rearm and return stronger than before. This election was another battle.
Majority of the votes going to HR was not “Yes” to him, instead it was a big “No” to entire establishment of hardliners headed by Kh.R. The event of 2009 uprising caused this faction to fracture badly and sending 5 presidential candidates to face HR is the obvious indication of it. Some of you think they did it to insure a landslide victory for HR, I disagree. If they wanted to make sure he wins they wouldn’t let a contender like MBG to stay in the race, simply pick a no name idiot who would cause even some hardliner to vote for the opponent. As Deerooz mentioned they are not monolithic to pick a single candidate, they are not united and often commit infighting out in the open.
Another battle was fought and victory was evident as soon as they announced the result. Now what HR is going to accomplish in next 4 years is another story. This was a slap on the face of Kh.R that you can’t come in the open, bark like a rabid dog and against nation’s will pick a monkey for pres. And say “Bodoor keh var”. Those days are numbered.
Who HR is or what is his track record or what is he going to do is not the agenda here, he represented the opponents of khamanei and cohorts and he won. This is a victory for the opponents not HR.
Don’t worry about regime claiming legitimacy, they would have done that anyway and they had enough people to fill up the poles for photo ops, on the other hand if I was a foreigner I should ask why is it that this regime is so sensitive about and often chasing legitimacy? And if I looked close on the results this is what I would’ve seen:
50.7% + 4 million who voted blank + 24% who boycotted the election are against Kh.R. Not a bad victory if you ask me.
We should not act or speak the way it shows how disconnected we are with realities inside Iran and the Iranians who live there and ultimately must live with the consequences of what ever they do wrt dealing with this regime. I don’t, even dare to question Iranians political maturity, these are the same people who opened the doors of a building called Parliament for the first time in the history of the entire continent of the Asia, they are only 107 years older and wiser, yes they had a miscalculation in 1979 and they are dearly paying for it but determined to correct it and they will.
The notion of “regime change” has never left their mind only getting stronger and stronger by day, only the strategy and the tactics for achieving it is changing depending on the ambience of the battle field and position of the other side. With experience of 2009 under their belt the idea of regime change by violence has been dropped (rightfully so) and obviously they have decided to attack this regime from inside until it implodes within. In this endeavor they had many small victories during this past 4 years.
As I have mentioned before a War is composed of several battles and you don’t have to win each and every one to claim victory for the whole war, you win some you loose some and when you loose you just fall back, refresh, regroup, rearm and return stronger than before. This election was another battle.
Majority of the votes going to HR was not “Yes” to him, instead it was a big “No” to entire establishment of hardliners headed by Kh.R. The event of 2009 uprising caused this faction to fracture badly and sending 5 presidential candidates to face HR is the obvious indication of it. Some of you think they did it to insure a landslide victory for HR, I disagree. If they wanted to make sure he wins they wouldn’t let a contender like MBG to stay in the race, simply pick a no name idiot who would cause even some hardliner to vote for the opponent. As Deerooz mentioned they are not monolithic to pick a single candidate, they are not united and often commit infighting out in the open.
Another battle was fought and victory was evident as soon as they announced the result. Now what HR is going to accomplish in next 4 years is another story. This was a slap on the face of Kh.R that you can’t come in the open, bark like a rabid dog and against nation’s will pick a monkey for pres. And say “Bodoor keh var”. Those days are numbered.
Who HR is or what is his track record or what is he going to do is not the agenda here, he represented the opponents of khamanei and cohorts and he won. This is a victory for the opponents not HR.
Don’t worry about regime claiming legitimacy, they would have done that anyway and they had enough people to fill up the poles for photo ops, on the other hand if I was a foreigner I should ask why is it that this regime is so sensitive about and often chasing legitimacy? And if I looked close on the results this is what I would’ve seen:
50.7% + 4 million who voted blank + 24% who boycotted the election are against Kh.R. Not a bad victory if you ask me.
سایت حکومتی افکار نیوز: عناصر معارض جمهوري اسلامي با ابراز ترديد نسبت به حسن روحاني ميگويند او اصلاح طلب نيست و مستقل از اصلاح طلبان به عرصه انتخابات آمده و منصوب رهبري در شوراي عالي امنيت ملي است.
در اين زمينه «محمدرضا-ي» همکار فراري نشريات زنجيره اي به صداي آمريکا گفت: روحاني اصلاح طلب نيست و هيچ اصراري هم ندارد که خودش را اصلاح طلب بنامد. اين در حالي است که عارف خودش را اصلاح طلب مي دانست. اما چون در نظرسنجي ها حتي نظرسنجي هاي اصلاح طلبانه او داراي راي بالايي نبود، اصلاح طلبان از روحاني حمايت کردند.
مرتضي -ک از همکاران متواري گروهک ملي-مذهبي نيز که در پاريس اقامت دارد به يک رسانه اپوزيسيون (راديو کوچه) گفت: روحاني نماينده خامنه ای در شورايعالي امنيت است به ويژه اين که روحاني از معتمدين نظام بوده و بخشي از جريان راست هم او را بر ديگر رقبا ترجيح ميدهند.
وي در مصاحبه با راديو فردا نيز تصريح کرد: حسن روحاني به اصلاح طلبي شهره نيست هر چند هاشمي و کارگزاران و خاتمي از او حمايت کرده اند. او مورد اعتماد رهبري بوده است.
از سوي ديگر عليرضا نوري زاده به شبکه الجزيره گفت: حسن روحاني به هيچ وجه اصلاح طلب نبوده و نيست و نماينده رهبري و نزديک به رهبر بوده است.
نوري زاده گفت: از نظر رهبري اين انتخابات يک همه پرسي براي نظام بود، زيرا مي خواهد بگويد جمهوري اسلامي وجهه مردمي دارد. نظام زيرکي به خرج داد و انتخابات شوراهاي شهر را با انتخابات رياست جمهوري همزمان کرد.(!) مسئولان نظام هر راي دهنده را که پاي صندوقها رفت نماد وجهه قانوني و مردمي نظام تلقي ميکنند.
در اين زمينه «محمدرضا-ي» همکار فراري نشريات زنجيره اي به صداي آمريکا گفت: روحاني اصلاح طلب نيست و هيچ اصراري هم ندارد که خودش را اصلاح طلب بنامد. اين در حالي است که عارف خودش را اصلاح طلب مي دانست. اما چون در نظرسنجي ها حتي نظرسنجي هاي اصلاح طلبانه او داراي راي بالايي نبود، اصلاح طلبان از روحاني حمايت کردند.
مرتضي -ک از همکاران متواري گروهک ملي-مذهبي نيز که در پاريس اقامت دارد به يک رسانه اپوزيسيون (راديو کوچه) گفت: روحاني نماينده خامنه ای در شورايعالي امنيت است به ويژه اين که روحاني از معتمدين نظام بوده و بخشي از جريان راست هم او را بر ديگر رقبا ترجيح ميدهند.
وي در مصاحبه با راديو فردا نيز تصريح کرد: حسن روحاني به اصلاح طلبي شهره نيست هر چند هاشمي و کارگزاران و خاتمي از او حمايت کرده اند. او مورد اعتماد رهبري بوده است.
از سوي ديگر عليرضا نوري زاده به شبکه الجزيره گفت: حسن روحاني به هيچ وجه اصلاح طلب نبوده و نيست و نماينده رهبري و نزديک به رهبر بوده است.
نوري زاده گفت: از نظر رهبري اين انتخابات يک همه پرسي براي نظام بود، زيرا مي خواهد بگويد جمهوري اسلامي وجهه مردمي دارد. نظام زيرکي به خرج داد و انتخابات شوراهاي شهر را با انتخابات رياست جمهوري همزمان کرد.(!) مسئولان نظام هر راي دهنده را که پاي صندوقها رفت نماد وجهه قانوني و مردمي نظام تلقي ميکنند.
Motori Jaan
While I agree with everything you said – I believe people of Iran still need us to be their voice outside Iran. There is no democracy in Iran, there has never been a democracy in Iran, ……..if HR was selected it was not because of any votes, it was due to the IR political needs of the times.
Down with the Islamic Republic – Death to it’s architects outside Iran and it’s implementers inside Iran, Shame on all who support and condone it.
While I agree with everything you said – I believe people of Iran still need us to be their voice outside Iran. There is no democracy in Iran, there has never been a democracy in Iran, ……..if HR was selected it was not because of any votes, it was due to the IR political needs of the times.
Down with the Islamic Republic – Death to it’s architects outside Iran and it’s implementers inside Iran, Shame on all who support and condone it.
I don't think the argument is between voting versus not voting. The original question was whether all the blood shed in election 88 went to waste. Your frame of thoughts khodam jan is exactly what IRI has wanted to impose on its people. And it has done so so briliantly. I guess the saying "beh marg migiran keh beh tab razi Shan" fits perfectly herein. All the blood shed of election 88, all the arrests, all the tortures, etc. did not take place so that someone like Rohani can be Iran's next president. In exchange for rohani's presidency, the price paid was way too much. Real accomplishment would have been achieved if someone like Abdullah Nouri would have been able to run. How could the urest of 88 be considred worthy when right before the election they are calling for the arrest and execution of khatami. Rohani is no outsider. The only thing that makes me happy about this election is that at least now, chances of a having a war breaking out is quite slim. This is my ONLY reason for being happy about this election. No imminent war. Rohani as president is not what Nasrin Sotoodeh stood for.
On a similar note, I remember the value of dollar reaching 4000 tooman. I was talking to friends in Iran and the mood was so low. A couple of weeks later, it dropped to 3500. Spoke with friends again in Iran and they were all pumped and happy. They had completely forgotten that a few months earlier they were complaining each dollar was worth 1700. This is the IRI mentality I am talking about.
On a similar note, I remember the value of dollar reaching 4000 tooman. I was talking to friends in Iran and the mood was so low. A couple of weeks later, it dropped to 3500. Spoke with friends again in Iran and they were all pumped and happy. They had completely forgotten that a few months earlier they were complaining each dollar was worth 1700. This is the IRI mentality I am talking about.
این هم نظرات چند نفر در رابطه با پست/گزارش بالا
حالا فرضن که اصلاح طلب بود یا هست ، بابا این آخوند است !!!!!
اصلا اصلاح طلب و اصولگرا یعنی چه ؟ اینا همشون سر تا پا از یک کرباسن، همه از یک فرقه شیطانی هستند. شما را بخدا مردم را با این حرفا گمراه نکنید ، آنها را روشن کنید . این حرفا کلک های آخوندی است. ما نباید دیگه این کلک ها را بخوریم - ۳۴ سال بسه !
حالا هم که مردم ساده لوح گول خوردن - رفت تا ۸ سال دیگه بدبختی و مفلوکی .......که این آخوند بره و یکی دیگه بیاد!! وای .
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کاملا مطمئن هستم که احمدی نژاد و تیم وی در پیروزی خسن زوحانی رول به سزائی را بازی کرده اند.
احمدی نژاد برای اینکه انتفام کوجگی از اصول گرایان گرقته یاشد از روحانی حمایت کرد.
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کاملا مطمئن هستم که احمدی نژاد و تیم وی در پیروزی خسن زوحانی رول به سزائی را بازی کرده اند.
احمدی نژاد برای اینکه انتفام کوجگی از اصول گرایان گرقته یاشد از روحانی حمایت کرد.
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جان هر کی دوست دارید، یکی به ما بگوید خوشحالی و جشن این مردم بابت چیست؟ خاتمی کم سرتون کلاه گذاشت که حالا به روحانی دل خوش کردید؟
تبریک به امت شریف ولایت فقیه - خامنه ای به خامنه ای رای داد. در ضمن، انتصابات نمایشی جمهوری اسلامی انگلستان را در خاورمیانه به دولت انگلستان تبریک میگوییم.
شعار میر حسین یا حسین، و الله و اکبر، فراموش نشود که بقای ولایت فقیه و چاه جمکران به آن بستگی دارد. در انتظار بهبودی اوضاع اقتصادی و زندگی و سر نوشت خود باشید که همراه روحانی در راه است، روحانی هم نشد نگران نباشید دولت انگلیس و روسیه و آمریکا حتما یکی دیگر را در ترشی خوابانده اند. چیزی که فراوان است، امام و رئیس جمهور های انتصابی...
کورش بخواب که تصویر امام هنوز در ماه است و دیدنی نیست.
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جان هر کی دوست دارید، یکی به ما بگوید خوشحالی و جشن این مردم بابت چیست؟ خاتمی کم سرتون کلاه گذاشت که حالا به روحانی دل خوش کردید؟
تبریک به امت شریف ولایت فقیه - خامنه ای به خامنه ای رای داد. در ضمن، انتصابات نمایشی جمهوری اسلامی انگلستان را در خاورمیانه به دولت انگلستان تبریک میگوییم.
شعار میر حسین یا حسین، و الله و اکبر، فراموش نشود که بقای ولایت فقیه و چاه جمکران به آن بستگی دارد. در انتظار بهبودی اوضاع اقتصادی و زندگی و سر نوشت خود باشید که همراه روحانی در راه است، روحانی هم نشد نگران نباشید دولت انگلیس و روسیه و آمریکا حتما یکی دیگر را در ترشی خوابانده اند. چیزی که فراوان است، امام و رئیس جمهور های انتصابی...
کورش بخواب که تصویر امام هنوز در ماه است و دیدنی نیست.
کلاه بسیار گشادی سرمردم ایران فرو رفت.
But went to waste as a result of what? Of course, losing all those honest, passionate, and brave kids is a waste. What else could it be? But when you ask that question in the context of this election, it becomes about voting or not voting. What else is there to make or break the respect for their blood.
As for the rest of your post, obviously I disagree. And it's obvious most people inside Iran disagree as well (supporters and opponents). I repeat the question I have been asking again. Why is it that we outside Iran see things so differently than those inside? This is a very important question to ask ourselves.
As for the rest of your post, obviously I disagree. And it's obvious most people inside Iran disagree as well (supporters and opponents). I repeat the question I have been asking again. Why is it that we outside Iran see things so differently than those inside? This is a very important question to ask ourselves.
Agha Motori,
Very well said, very well said.
I just want to adjust your numbers a bit if you don't mind. There are reliable accounts that Rohani had 55.8% (21.8m) of the vote but they announced 50.7. That's 44% of the eligible voters. Out of that 27% who didn't vote, I would say at least 20% are against the regime if not more, as well as 3% blank. The total vote for all other candidates is about 32% and I would say at least 7% of that is against the regime that went to Qalibaf and Rezai for their management style. This doesn't include Iranians living abroad, and I maintain that the regime has about 2-4 million additional birth certificates that it uses for elections. If you put all these numbers together, this regime has somewhere between 20-30% support base, which should be closer to the lower end.
Very well said, very well said.
I just want to adjust your numbers a bit if you don't mind. There are reliable accounts that Rohani had 55.8% (21.8m) of the vote but they announced 50.7. That's 44% of the eligible voters. Out of that 27% who didn't vote, I would say at least 20% are against the regime if not more, as well as 3% blank. The total vote for all other candidates is about 32% and I would say at least 7% of that is against the regime that went to Qalibaf and Rezai for their management style. This doesn't include Iranians living abroad, and I maintain that the regime has about 2-4 million additional birth certificates that it uses for elections. If you put all these numbers together, this regime has somewhere between 20-30% support base, which should be closer to the lower end.