Mowj do you get the feeling that I do that the PoopCoupCrew(and maybe their Russian masters) are trying to provoke Israel into attacking Iran?
Personally I don't see Israel as being dumb enough, even with the idiot religious extremist Netanyahu in charge, to do so. Instead, I think that what the PCC has miscalculated is the willingness of Europe to follow the US into sanctioning Iran, and the HUGE price that Iran would pay if this happens:
1) inflation and unemployment reaching record levels
2) mass exodus of money and people from Iran
3) Iran starts to become internationally isolated akin to North Korea now or Albania during communist times
Nonetheless I could see Iran trying to get Hizbollah and Hamas to stir up trouble in order to provoke a retaliation, but this could instead result in those groups being defanged if Israel fights back with full force against those groups the way it did in Gaza where it showed it doesn't care about international opinion or killing innocents.
But I also think the PoopCoupCrew underestimates the level of anger and resentment within the people in Iran if both the democratic aspects of the IRI are completely thrown aside AND the economy goes down the shithole. How they think that they can get by with only 10-15% of the people, at most, supporting them is incredible!
Personally I don't see Israel as being dumb enough, even with the idiot religious extremist Netanyahu in charge, to do so. Instead, I think that what the PCC has miscalculated is the willingness of Europe to follow the US into sanctioning Iran, and the HUGE price that Iran would pay if this happens:
1) inflation and unemployment reaching record levels
2) mass exodus of money and people from Iran
3) Iran starts to become internationally isolated akin to North Korea now or Albania during communist times
Nonetheless I could see Iran trying to get Hizbollah and Hamas to stir up trouble in order to provoke a retaliation, but this could instead result in those groups being defanged if Israel fights back with full force against those groups the way it did in Gaza where it showed it doesn't care about international opinion or killing innocents.
But I also think the PoopCoupCrew underestimates the level of anger and resentment within the people in Iran if both the democratic aspects of the IRI are completely thrown aside AND the economy goes down the shithole. How they think that they can get by with only 10-15% of the people, at most, supporting them is incredible!
I also don't think Israel will attack Iran even if a weaker Hezbollah or weak er Hamas try to create some disturbances on its border. Israel tought a very harsh lesson to both Hezbollah and Hamas that if they think they can get away with smallest incident, they don't.
The only sanction that will work effectively against the regim and not the people is boycot of oil/gas and that is not likely due to China/Russia role.
This regim is so incompetent as I said
مکافات شکنجه، کشتار، تجاوز به جوانان دختر و پسر ايران کمترين مشکل حکومت کودتاست. چهار سال بی لياقتی و غارتگری مطلق منابع کشور هم گريبانگير اين ارازل و اوباش دزد و جنايتکار دجال رابزودی خواهد گرفت.
And Mousavi put it well that we should be very watchful of regim in digging their own graves with their own conducts not to provoke us (helping them) into hurting our beloved country.
Patient and persistance in a peacful approach is the key and has worked so well so far and in near future....
this could be a ploy to cancel ghods day:
1) arrest karroubi.
2) there will be street protests this week.
3) scuffles and regime will make sure some banks and buses are burnt.
4) then due to "irresponsible eghteshahgaran" the regime, with great regret, will have to cancel ghods day and maybe even declare martial law.
1) arrest karroubi.
2) there will be street protests this week.
3) scuffles and regime will make sure some banks and buses are burnt.
4) then due to "irresponsible eghteshahgaran" the regime, with great regret, will have to cancel ghods day and maybe even declare martial law.
Abedzaadeh jAn, these satanic tactics were used and failed for the few weeks right after 22 Khordad coup all the way throughout the circus courts. No success.
Now, it was the naked force that Vali Vaghih was speaking of in threatening the people of Iran again.
Regim knows well that the time to fool and deceive anyone with such exposed tactics are long gone.
What regim is terrified of now is to see its forces falter, refuse to carry out order, run away from bases, or possibly turn against their own commanders.
So, puppeteers sent out Vali Vaghih to portray they mean business to scare people off before a potential confrontation. It did not work on Sunday after the 22 Khordad and it sure wont work now that people don't give a hoot about a completely washed off, exposed, worthless Vali Vaghih now.
Regim/IRGC can not back off and can not move forward, they are in state og Gog Gijegi until the end that is near.
Now, it was the naked force that Vali Vaghih was speaking of in threatening the people of Iran again.
Regim knows well that the time to fool and deceive anyone with such exposed tactics are long gone.
What regim is terrified of now is to see its forces falter, refuse to carry out order, run away from bases, or possibly turn against their own commanders.
So, puppeteers sent out Vali Vaghih to portray they mean business to scare people off before a potential confrontation. It did not work on Sunday after the 22 Khordad and it sure wont work now that people don't give a hoot about a completely washed off, exposed, worthless Vali Vaghih now.
Regim/IRGC can not back off and can not move forward, they are in state og Gog Gijegi until the end that is near.
In the short-term of months to maybe 1 year, this is true. But over a longer time frame, since Iran's biggest trade has been with EU countries, especially Germany, this would have the unintended consequence of sparking inflation and mass migration, whether legally or illegally, to greener economic pastures where jobs exist.
I honestly don't think Putin gives a shit about Iran but is using Iran to stop Nato expansion and US saber-rattling at its borders. Basically it wants the US and Nato to give it back regional sovereignty on the former USSR, and Iran is simply one card, albeit a big one, in this power play.
China will be back to 9 or 10% growth next year and needs Iran to feed its oil thirst. That's why it's also not cared about what Sudan has done in Darfur and gone on to make major oil deals there.
I definitely agree with you on this. Personally I think after al-Burrito gave the Majlis his 'vision' to accept all of Poop's ministers, that Poop will stay on in power for the full second term. I think without the 'vision' Majlis would've rejected all but 1 or 2 of the ministers and could've even thought about impeaching Poop if economic conditions keep on worsening. But on the other hand, Poop and al-Burrito's support among the population, which could at the moment be estimated to be around 25-30% of Iranians as a whole, could be down to 10% by 4 years from now. Even the Sepah which helped carry out this coup can only depend on its top brass to be supportive of the coup regime. EVEN the basij is probably only half supportive of this, with the other half not so hizbollahi or in the basij for economic reasons only.
I say this because when inflation spikes, unemployment keeps going higher by 3-5% a year, and lots of money and investment starts to flow out of Iran, it'll be a vastly different scenario to what we've seen thus far, where to a certain extent, even during the war period(ironically thanks to Mousavi), the economy has been prevented from extreme stagflation.
I think the PoopCoupCrew simply thought out 2 scenarios:
1) Iran is attacked by Israel and the US, and in response Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, starts attacking US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, and tells hizbollah and hamas to do terrorist activities around the world. All of this will end up pressuring Obama to blink and not go into full-scale war with Iran, and thus Iran's nuclear program is simply accepted.
2) The rest of the world pressures Iran but Iran doesn't cave in, bluffing about attacks but never attacking. Iran is allowed to breakout into having weapons capability, and all without being caught by the IAEA red-handed. After an initial period of pressure, the US and EU back down when they see that Russia and China won't accept sanctions at the UN, and thus Iran's nuclear program is accepted by the world.
What they don't calculate is that going down the North Korea route, whereby Iran is isolated from much of the world, at least the US and Europe, maybe even Japan and a few others like Argentina(mad at Iran's defense minister selection), that the Iranian people wouldn't simply act the same as North Koreans and accept the situation for what it is. And if the situation starts to get out of control throughout Iran, and not just in big cities, then they would literally need the WHOLE military to be 100% on their side, and that means all rank and file as well. I don't see the rank and file in Iran's military as being like their counterparts in Turkey or Pakistan to simply accept orders no matter what. Maybe 1/2 of the basij would, and an even smaller percentage of the Sepah, and this would be enough to supress dissent in Tehran perhaps, but not throughout the country on a large scale.
So either they've totally miscalculated the character of Iranian people and thought that Iranians are just like North Koreans or Iraqis under Saddam, OR they've miscalculated how much the rank and file of the military would follow orders from the top brass of sepah. Either way, the PoopCoupCrew really didn't think this out on the larger scale. Maybe they thought that peoples' muted reaction in 2005 meant that Iranians had changed and no longer cared about the government or who ruled it. This is the only possibility that makes sense to me, and if true would just go to show how short-sighted they really are.
I honestly don't think Putin gives a shit about Iran but is using Iran to stop Nato expansion and US saber-rattling at its borders. Basically it wants the US and Nato to give it back regional sovereignty on the former USSR, and Iran is simply one card, albeit a big one, in this power play.
China will be back to 9 or 10% growth next year and needs Iran to feed its oil thirst. That's why it's also not cared about what Sudan has done in Darfur and gone on to make major oil deals there.
I definitely agree with you on this. Personally I think after al-Burrito gave the Majlis his 'vision' to accept all of Poop's ministers, that Poop will stay on in power for the full second term. I think without the 'vision' Majlis would've rejected all but 1 or 2 of the ministers and could've even thought about impeaching Poop if economic conditions keep on worsening. But on the other hand, Poop and al-Burrito's support among the population, which could at the moment be estimated to be around 25-30% of Iranians as a whole, could be down to 10% by 4 years from now. Even the Sepah which helped carry out this coup can only depend on its top brass to be supportive of the coup regime. EVEN the basij is probably only half supportive of this, with the other half not so hizbollahi or in the basij for economic reasons only.
I say this because when inflation spikes, unemployment keeps going higher by 3-5% a year, and lots of money and investment starts to flow out of Iran, it'll be a vastly different scenario to what we've seen thus far, where to a certain extent, even during the war period(ironically thanks to Mousavi), the economy has been prevented from extreme stagflation.
I think the PoopCoupCrew simply thought out 2 scenarios:
1) Iran is attacked by Israel and the US, and in response Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, starts attacking US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, and tells hizbollah and hamas to do terrorist activities around the world. All of this will end up pressuring Obama to blink and not go into full-scale war with Iran, and thus Iran's nuclear program is simply accepted.
2) The rest of the world pressures Iran but Iran doesn't cave in, bluffing about attacks but never attacking. Iran is allowed to breakout into having weapons capability, and all without being caught by the IAEA red-handed. After an initial period of pressure, the US and EU back down when they see that Russia and China won't accept sanctions at the UN, and thus Iran's nuclear program is accepted by the world.
What they don't calculate is that going down the North Korea route, whereby Iran is isolated from much of the world, at least the US and Europe, maybe even Japan and a few others like Argentina(mad at Iran's defense minister selection), that the Iranian people wouldn't simply act the same as North Koreans and accept the situation for what it is. And if the situation starts to get out of control throughout Iran, and not just in big cities, then they would literally need the WHOLE military to be 100% on their side, and that means all rank and file as well. I don't see the rank and file in Iran's military as being like their counterparts in Turkey or Pakistan to simply accept orders no matter what. Maybe 1/2 of the basij would, and an even smaller percentage of the Sepah, and this would be enough to supress dissent in Tehran perhaps, but not throughout the country on a large scale.
So either they've totally miscalculated the character of Iranian people and thought that Iranians are just like North Koreans or Iraqis under Saddam, OR they've miscalculated how much the rank and file of the military would follow orders from the top brass of sepah. Either way, the PoopCoupCrew really didn't think this out on the larger scale. Maybe they thought that peoples' muted reaction in 2005 meant that Iranians had changed and no longer cared about the government or who ruled it. This is the only possibility that makes sense to me, and if true would just go to show how short-sighted they really are.
It looks like the Karoubi arrest order is true:
Khamenei Issues Warning to Iranian Opposition
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LinkedinDiggFacebookMixxMySpaceYahoo! BuzzPermalinkBy NAZILA FATHI
Published: September 11, 2009
TORONTO — Iran's Supreme Religious Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned opposition leaders of a “harsh response” Friday if they continued challenging the government, a move that analysts said opens the way for their possible arrest.
His fierce speech today at the Friday prayers at Tehran University came after authorities sealed the offices of two opposition leaders, Mehdi Karroubi, a former speaker of Parliament, and Mir Hussein Moussavi, a former prime minister, this week and arrested their top aides.
On Friday, a Web site linked to Mr. Moussavi, rahesabz.net, quoted Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an influential politician who sided with the opposition, as saying that Ayatollah Khamenei had already issued the order for Mr. Karroubi’s arrest. A person close to Mr. Rafsanjani, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, confirmed the report, saying the order was issued at least two weeks ago.That left open the possibility that Ayatollah Khamenei’s speech was something of a final warning to Mr. Karroubi.
Mr. Karroubi and Mr. Moussavi, who ran against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in the election on June 12, have accused his government of falsifying the results to give him a landslide. They have also recently charged that some Iranians detained after massive protests after the election were raped and tortured in prison.
This was the second time since the election that Mr. Khamenei used the platform of the Friday prayers to issue a warning. A week after the election he endorsed Mr. Ahmadinejad’s election and warned of bloodshed if the protests continued.
Ayatollah Khamenei said Friday that the system tolerated different opinions but would confront what he called “lies and rumors,” referring to the charges of rape and torture against prisoners.
“Confronting the system and the principles of the establishment, resisting it and drawing a sword against it will have a harsh response,” he said in the speech, which was broadcast live on state-run television. Tens of thousands of hard-line supporters who attended the prayers chanted “death to traitors,” according to images showed on state-run television.
“The system tolerates different opinions as long as there are no false accusations, rumors and lies,” he said.
The supreme leader indicated that he was following the path of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the 1979 revolution, in dealing with the opposition. “Imam Khomeini hit back firmly against those who wanted to force wrong ideas upon the system,” he said.
Mr. Khamenei also pointed to the upcoming annual Pro-Palestinian rally on the last Friday of the Islamic month of Ramadan and warned the opposition not to use the opportunity to protest. Protestors had said they would take part in the rally, wearing green, the trademark color of Mr. Moussavi’s supporters, to show that the opposition movement was still alive. Mr. Karroubi vowed that he would participate as well.
Mr. Khamenei’s speech today suggests that the regime was taking the confrontation with the opposition leaders to a new level, analysts said. The arrest this week of Alireza Hosseini-Beheshti, a top aide to Mr. Moussavi and the son of a respected founder of the revolution who was killed in an explosion, illustrates the government’s eagerness to silence the opposition.
“Mr. Khamenei’s speech is a final warning to political leaders,” said one analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “He told the reformers, who claim they are loyal to the values of Khomeini, that he is also following him and would confront them in the same way that Khomeini confronted his opponents.”
Mr. Khamenei and his supporters have tried to portray the opposition and the protests as a plot by foreign enemies to stage a “velvet revolution” against the regime. More than a hundred former officials, activists and journalists are still in detention. Among them is an Iranian-American scholar, Kian Tajbakhsh, and an Iranian-Canadian journalist, Maziar Bahari.
Meanwhile, Mr. Karroubi lashed out about at the raid on his office and the arrest of his aides in a letter to the head of the judiciary late Thursday and said he would not be intimidated, his Web site Etemad Melli reported. “I am even more persistent than before now after the arrests and the intimidations,” he said, referring to his efforts to publicize charges of torture and rape.
He also wrote that a military commander had ordered the health ministry not to issue a medical certificate to those seeking treatment for injuries inflicted during the violence or while in detention. Such certificates could be used to sue the assailants in a court.
The Web site also reported that Mohammad Ozlati-Moghadam, another aide to Mr. Moussavi, was also arrested on Thursday night at his home.
Ayatollah Khamenei also stressed that Iran was not going to compromise over its nuclear program, adding the regime would not show weakness or retreat from what is considers its rights.
“We must stand firm for our rights,” he said. “If we give up our rights, whether nuclear or other rights, this will lead to decline,” he said. “The system should move towards progress.”
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Khamenei Issues Warning to Iranian Opposition
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LinkedinDiggFacebookMixxMySpaceYahoo! BuzzPermalinkBy NAZILA FATHI
Published: September 11, 2009
TORONTO — Iran's Supreme Religious Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned opposition leaders of a “harsh response” Friday if they continued challenging the government, a move that analysts said opens the way for their possible arrest.
His fierce speech today at the Friday prayers at Tehran University came after authorities sealed the offices of two opposition leaders, Mehdi Karroubi, a former speaker of Parliament, and Mir Hussein Moussavi, a former prime minister, this week and arrested their top aides.
On Friday, a Web site linked to Mr. Moussavi, rahesabz.net, quoted Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an influential politician who sided with the opposition, as saying that Ayatollah Khamenei had already issued the order for Mr. Karroubi’s arrest. A person close to Mr. Rafsanjani, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, confirmed the report, saying the order was issued at least two weeks ago.That left open the possibility that Ayatollah Khamenei’s speech was something of a final warning to Mr. Karroubi.
Mr. Karroubi and Mr. Moussavi, who ran against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in the election on June 12, have accused his government of falsifying the results to give him a landslide. They have also recently charged that some Iranians detained after massive protests after the election were raped and tortured in prison.
This was the second time since the election that Mr. Khamenei used the platform of the Friday prayers to issue a warning. A week after the election he endorsed Mr. Ahmadinejad’s election and warned of bloodshed if the protests continued.
Ayatollah Khamenei said Friday that the system tolerated different opinions but would confront what he called “lies and rumors,” referring to the charges of rape and torture against prisoners.
“Confronting the system and the principles of the establishment, resisting it and drawing a sword against it will have a harsh response,” he said in the speech, which was broadcast live on state-run television. Tens of thousands of hard-line supporters who attended the prayers chanted “death to traitors,” according to images showed on state-run television.
“The system tolerates different opinions as long as there are no false accusations, rumors and lies,” he said.
The supreme leader indicated that he was following the path of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the 1979 revolution, in dealing with the opposition. “Imam Khomeini hit back firmly against those who wanted to force wrong ideas upon the system,” he said.
Mr. Khamenei also pointed to the upcoming annual Pro-Palestinian rally on the last Friday of the Islamic month of Ramadan and warned the opposition not to use the opportunity to protest. Protestors had said they would take part in the rally, wearing green, the trademark color of Mr. Moussavi’s supporters, to show that the opposition movement was still alive. Mr. Karroubi vowed that he would participate as well.
Mr. Khamenei’s speech today suggests that the regime was taking the confrontation with the opposition leaders to a new level, analysts said. The arrest this week of Alireza Hosseini-Beheshti, a top aide to Mr. Moussavi and the son of a respected founder of the revolution who was killed in an explosion, illustrates the government’s eagerness to silence the opposition.
“Mr. Khamenei’s speech is a final warning to political leaders,” said one analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “He told the reformers, who claim they are loyal to the values of Khomeini, that he is also following him and would confront them in the same way that Khomeini confronted his opponents.”
Mr. Khamenei and his supporters have tried to portray the opposition and the protests as a plot by foreign enemies to stage a “velvet revolution” against the regime. More than a hundred former officials, activists and journalists are still in detention. Among them is an Iranian-American scholar, Kian Tajbakhsh, and an Iranian-Canadian journalist, Maziar Bahari.
Meanwhile, Mr. Karroubi lashed out about at the raid on his office and the arrest of his aides in a letter to the head of the judiciary late Thursday and said he would not be intimidated, his Web site Etemad Melli reported. “I am even more persistent than before now after the arrests and the intimidations,” he said, referring to his efforts to publicize charges of torture and rape.
He also wrote that a military commander had ordered the health ministry not to issue a medical certificate to those seeking treatment for injuries inflicted during the violence or while in detention. Such certificates could be used to sue the assailants in a court.
The Web site also reported that Mohammad Ozlati-Moghadam, another aide to Mr. Moussavi, was also arrested on Thursday night at his home.
Ayatollah Khamenei also stressed that Iran was not going to compromise over its nuclear program, adding the regime would not show weakness or retreat from what is considers its rights.
“We must stand firm for our rights,” he said. “If we give up our rights, whether nuclear or other rights, this will lead to decline,” he said. “The system should move towards progress.”
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