September 11, News/Discussion

spanx

Bench Warmer
Dec 19, 2005
1,310
0
#61
Good on him. He is really courageous doing this from inside Iran! Nikahang baayad boogh bezaneh as he assumes some sacred sh*t status for Khamenei and think of him as a Marja Taghlid!
i'm pretty sure she's a lady ... no?

Nikahang's updates on facebook have all been about how his back is hurting for the past three days ... who cares
 
Oct 18, 2002
11,593
3
#64
i'm pretty sure she's a lady ... no?

Nikahang's updates on facebook have all been about how his back is hurting for the past three days ... who cares
This is Mana neiestani:



Born in Tehran in 1973.
Received a M.A. of Architecture from Tehran University.
Drawing cartoons for the press from 1989.He has worked as a
cartoonist and illustrator for economic,
intellectual, political, cultural and professional magazines.
He started drawing editorial cartoons from 1998,for “Zan” newspaper.
During 1998-2000, He has drawn a lot of cartoons for different reformist
newspapers such as, Asr-e Azadegan, Sobhe Emrooz, Mosharekat, Azad,
Neshat (as a freelance) and for Aftab-e Emrooz (as a staff cartoonist).
Mana has won several medals and honorary diplomas from different
International competitions:4th award of blue-sky contest in Tehran (1997)
2nd award of blue-sky contest in Tehran (1998)2nd
award of housing in Tehran (1999)
2nd award of Atomic Bomb cartoon contest of Golagha magazine(1999)
Diploma of honor of Football international cartoon contest in Iran (1999)
Diploma of honor of 4th biennial international cartoon in Iran (1999)
Selected in section final of comic strip in Umoristi a Marostica in Italy (1999)
Firstaward of the press festival in cartoon in Iran (1999)

Some of his work:
http://www.irancartoon.com/mana/INDEX2.HTM

 

khodam

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
2,458
88
Atlanta
#65
Mowj do you get the feeling that I do that the PoopCoupCrew(and maybe their Russian masters) are trying to provoke Israel into attacking Iran?
Israel doesn't need any provocation to attack Iran. If it was up to Israel (any government in Israel) they would have attacked Iran many times over. And it doesn't matter if the attack is a military success or not. Regardless, it will be a political success for Israel. An attack on Iran would radicalize the regime and solidify Ahmadijenad's grip on the country. That would in turn further isolate Iran. Continued or increased isolation of Iran is a victory for Israel. Again, it doesn't matter the least if they can destroy nuclear facilities or not. It will be a significant success for Israel (and for Ahmadinejad) regardless. This is another example where Israel and AN are natural strategic allies.

I wouldn't doubt for a second that if AN could, he would have asked Israel to attack Iran, but he doesn't need to. They only thing that is preventing an attack is pressure from US, which in turn is because of the mess in Iraq and Afghanistan, and possibly Obama's principles. So in a very twisted way, we may actually be benefiting from Bush's bellicose policies.
 

khodam

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
2,458
88
Atlanta
#66
this could be a ploy to cancel ghods day:

1) arrest karroubi.
2) there will be street protests this week.
3) scuffles and regime will make sure some banks and buses are burnt.
4) then due to "irresponsible eghteshahgaran" the regime, with great regret, will have to cancel ghods day and maybe even declare martial law.
This is very possible but very easy to counter.
 

spanx

Bench Warmer
Dec 19, 2005
1,310
0
#67
If you guys are interested ... the last three parts of hana Makhmalbaaf's movie ...

the dude is uploading them slowly ... BBC should put it up soon

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKv_5Omtvb0"]YouTube - ‫Ù￾یلم روزهای سبز حنا مخملباÙ￾ part5 hana makhmallbaf‬‎[/ame]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBejo5YOJyE"]YouTube - ‫Ù￾یلم روزهای سبز حنا مخملباÙ￾ part6 hana makhmallbaf‬‎[/ame]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPIWTyRk86o"]YouTube - ‫Ù￾یلم روزهای سبز حنا مخملباÙ￾ part7 hana makhmallbaf‬‎[/ame]
 

masoudA

Legionnaire
Oct 16, 2008
6,199
22
#68
hame ba ham barkhisim
they can't arrest 70 million.
Those of you outside Iran - we must make a statement in NY.
 

The_Referee

National Team Player
Mar 26, 2005
5,534
0
Jabolqa Opposite Jabolsa
#69
hame ba ham barkhisim
they can't arrest 70 million.
Those of you outside Iran - we must make a statement in NY.
Agree!

However, easier for us to say it and even do it here than those inside. It takes a great amount of courage for them and I am so proud of them, who are doing it despite all the risks involved. I wish they would all realize that the sooner the more BISHOMAAR they do it the less loss of nation! We should not wait until we have lost someone close to us.

But then again, who am I to say, sitting thousands of miles away! It is a hard thing to say while you are not that close.
 

mowj

National Team Player
May 14, 2005
4,739
0
#73
A very good read...
تظاهرات خارج از کشور: یار شاطر یا بار خاطر

دکتر محمد برقعی


کسانی که این روزها در تظاهرات شرکت می کنند، و به ویژه جمع کثیری که تصمیم دارند در تظاهرات بزرگ اعتراضی در مقابل ساختمان سازمان ملل متحد در نیویورک تظاهرات کنند را می توان، به سه دسته تقسیم کرد.

۱ ـ سرنگونی طلبان، که به طور عمده سلطنت طلبان و مجاهدین خلق هستند و چند گروه کوچک پراکنده چون حزب کمونیست کارگری.

۲ ـ طرفداران آشکار جنبش سبز، که در جو موجود هر روز از تعدادشان کاسته می شود. اینان پرچم سبز با خود می آورند و عکس رهبران جنبش به پیشتازی میرحسین موسوی؛ را به دست می گیرند. عکس هایی که هر روز از تعداد آن ها کاسته می شود. ولی به هر صورت اینان بدون پرده پوشی از همان جنبش سبز درون ایران و خواسته های آنان حمایت می کنند و همان شعارها را هم می دهند.

۳ ـ سرگردان های بی هویت. اینان در تعریف خود می گویند که در نهایت خواسته گروه اول را دارند اما روش مبارزاتی گروه دوم را می پذیرند. و در این پذیرش هم شرط و شروط دارند. از جمله به جای پرچم سبز پرچم سه رنگ می آورند. رهبران جنبش درون ایران و زندانیان سازمانی آن را از خود نمی دانند و به همین سبب به جای عکس رهبران جنبش عکس ندا و سهراب و شهدای گمنام دیگر را می آورند؛ چهره هایی که ضمن آن که نشان دهنده جنایات نظام هستند اما مثل خود این افراد هویت سیاسی مشخصی ندارند. فصل مشترک این جمع پراکنده هزار رنگ با دو دسته دیگر مخالفت با نظام حاکم و دفاع از حقوق بشر است.

هر کس تجربه محدودی در سیاست داشته باشد می داند که از هر تظاهر اعتراضی و حرکت سیاسی یک تصویر کلی به جامعه انتقال می یابد و کسی دقتی به انواع شعارهایی که داده می شود نمی کند. فارغ از آن که چه شعارهایی اینجا و آنجا در جمع داده می شود و چه قطعنامه ای در آن شلوغ بازار خوانده می شود تنها همان تصویر کلی و پیام اصلی آن در اذهان مردم جاگیر می شود. لذا پیامی که از این تظاهرات به حکومت و مردم می رسد چنین خواهد بود:

۱ ـ جمعیت ساختارشکنان: از این روی جمهوری اسلامی با آب و تاب عکس ها و گزارش های تصویری این جماعت را با پرچم سه رنگ و نشان شیر و خورشید یا بدون شیر و خورشید را از رسانه های خود پخش می کند تا نشان دهد که بدنه اصلی این جنبش به دنبال سرنگونی نظام هستند و رهبران و فعالانی که مدعی هستند بدنه اصلی انقلاب هستند و خود را صاحب اصلی انقلاب می دانند به دلیل انحراف ذهنی خود دانسته یا ندانسته آلت دست این ساختارشکنان شده اند. بدین سان هم طرفداران خود را در پذیرش تبلیغات حکومتی استوارتر می کنند و هم، مهمتر از آن، بسیاری از کسانی را که در اثر سابقه رهبران جنبش سبز حاضر به قبول برانداز بودن آن ها نیستند با خود همراه می کنند.

۲ ـ بی پشتوانه بودن رهبری: حضور میلیونی جمعیت در داخل و خارج از کشور در حمایت از جنبش سبز حکومت را در سرکوب آن و از بین بردن رهبریت و شبکه جنبش بیمناک کرده بود. اما این گونه تظاهرات نشان می دهد که پیوند ارگانیک میان رهبریت و جمعیت به ظاهر طرفدار آن بسیار سست است و به دنبال گرفتن همین پیام حکومت هر روز گستاخ تر شده و بر فشار بر رهبران آن و دستگیری اعضای فعال آن افزوده است و می رود که دیر یا زود همه رهبران آن را هم دستگیر کند بی آن که بیمی از عکس العمل شدید مردم داشته باشد.

۳ ـ حرکت توده وار: این جنبش به طور عمده یک حرکت کور، بی شبکه، و توده وار است نه یک جنبش اجتماعی با مطالبات معین. هر اهل سیاستی می داند در همه جوامع در صدی از مردم ناراضی هستند ولی این نارضایتی اگر به هفتاد و هشتاد درصد جامعه هم برسد تا زمانی که تشکل و رهبری ندارد خطری جدی برای هیچ حکومتی نیست.

بدین سان بسیاری از ما ایرانیان خارج از کشور با این شیوه حمایت پر از تردید و مشروطمان که از منزه طلبی و حداکثرخواهی ما سرچشمه می گیرد، در عمل نه تنها کمکی به جنبش داخل کشور نمی کنیم بلکه عزم حکومت را در سرکوب آن جزم تر می کنیم و تا زمانی که ما فرق میان «رهبر» و «نماد رهبری» را که در مقاله جنبش سبز شماره ۲ آورده بودم متوجه نشویم حمایت های ما از همین ویژگی پر از تردید و سر درگم و در نتیجه بدون فایده عملی برخوردار خواهد بود.
 

khodam

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
2,458
88
Atlanta
#74
how? if Martial law is declared next friday it would make it very difficult
If that happens, people shouldn't go to the streets until Friday. Then they won't have an excuse for canceling the Ghods day.

They'll never declare Martial Law. This regime is very high on portraying a safe and stable atmosphere in Iran.
 
Jan 23, 2003
3,619
0
#75
If that happens, people shouldn't go to the streets until Friday. Then they won't have an excuse for canceling the Ghods day.

They'll never declare Martial Law. This regime is very high on portraying a safe and stable atmosphere in Iran.
yes but if they really want to (which as you said probably not anyway) they could send their own people to the streets in pockets damaging public properties etc..
 
Feb 7, 2009
468
0
#77
I hope they hide him. Just notice he means more to the movement
than mosavi. His arrest order has been issued first. If they arrest him there will be more riots. That is for sure.
I agree, they are not sure how people will react that's why they haven't arrest neither Mousavi nor Karoubi otherwise they would have done it by now, I think if they do people will lost it.
 
Oct 18, 2002
11,593
3
#78
I agree, they are not sure how people will react that's why they haven't arrest neither Mousavi nor Karoubi otherwise they would have done it by now, I think if they do people will lost it.
It will all depend on the Ghods day rally.

If they (the regime) can suppress people's presence on that day with minimum casualties -by bringing busloads of their supporters, heavy presence of bassij and instilling an atmospher of absolute fear - then they will be convinced that the worst for them is over - at least temporarily - and they are in charge. From then on the regime can have the confidence to bring out its people, and they will likely move quickly against Karoubi and Mousavi.

If otherwise the situation gets out of their control on Ghods day, it could become a totally different story.

The Ghods day rally will be the break point that will determine the short term course of events.
 

spanx

Bench Warmer
Dec 19, 2005
1,310
0
#79
What we have to notice is that Karoubi and Mousavi represent the symbols of the green movement rather than being guiding leaders of it.

If the Coup government arrests either or both of them, it is indirectly implying that they think the movement has died down and there isn't enough resistance to support these leaders actively.

So while the people's cause is hurt by just the absence of Karoubi among them, his arrest and the reaction to it has a much more significant meaning in the grand scheme of things

As it was mentioned, that's why the coup government hasn't made their move yet, because it is a gamble ... they think the more time passes by the more moderate the backlash would be ... but at the same time, events like roozeh ghods rejuvinate the green movement's momentum ...

So as it was mentioned, that's why they haven't made these arrests just yet ...
 

khodam

Bench Warmer
Oct 18, 2002
2,458
88
Atlanta
#80
It will all depend on the Ghods day rally.

If they (the regime) can suppress people's presence on that day with minimum casualties -by bringing busloads of their supporters, heavy presence of bassij and instilling an atmospher of absolute fear - then they will be convinced that the worst for them is over - at least temporarily - and they are in charge.
I agree with what you're saying but among all the measures you mention, only the fear factor has a chance to work on a day like Ghods. Their only chance is if people don't come to streets because they're scared.

This type of day cannot be controlled by security forces and bussed people. Riot police and Basij are useful for controlling crowds that are not very large in number. When the crowd gets larger than tens of thousand (let alone few hundred thousand), riot police and Basij can't do anything. Note that their strategy since 25 Khordad has been to prevent formation of the nucleus of the crowd. The only time when they could not do this was the Friday Prayer. Of course they can always shoot people in the crowd which they may do on any day but Ghods.

As for busloads of people, they just don't have large enough numbers. If they did, they would have just sent them into the streets in previous demonstrations like the Friday prayer by Hashemi. Ghods is even worse because they run the risk of unrest in many cities as the demonstrations are nationwide.

The day before 25 Khordad demonstration shorayeh tamin amniat Tehran had estimated a crowd of up to 50000. They were ready for up to 100000. I know this for a fact. It was the shear number that made the day a success. The regime does not have the capacity of handling very large crowds. Unless the shoot people which so far they have shown they'd avoid. They prefer to kill in the backstreets and jails.