September 11, News/Discussion

[Niloufar]

It will all depend on the Ghods day rally.

If they (the regime) can suppress people's presence on that day with minimum casualties -by bringing busloads of their supporters, heavy presence of bassij and instilling an atmospher of absolute fear - then they will be convinced that the worst for them is over - at least temporarily - and they are in charge. From then on the regime can have the confidence to bring out its people, and they will likely move quickly against Karoubi and Mousavi.

If otherwise the situation gets out of their control on Ghods day, it could become a totally different story.

The Ghods day rally will be the break point that will determine the short term course of events.

well said deerouz jan. Although even at non-Ghods days, and for smaller demonstrations they have managed to create an atmosphere of absolute fear throughout the city. I witnessed that myself.
Personally, from the military presence they have and their brutal crimes against detained protesters, I doubt it that many ppl show up again.

But I have no doubt that when they arrest Karoubi-Mousavi, ppl's resistence will get stronger and fearless. much much stronger with anger replacing fear.

 

[Zob Ahan]

Mousavi & Karoubi's arrest at this point is inevitable. If the rumors are correct Karoubi will be arrested right away which I think would be a strategic mistake on IR's part because Mousavi will get more aggressive and having Ghods around the corner I think more people will turn up should IR make this stupid mistake. I doubt they are this stupid. They will probably wait for Ghods to pass and if big numbers don't show they will go after both of them at the same time. Ghods is like a do or die match for the movement's short term future. May god protect our people from these animals.

 

[Zaagros]

LOOOOOLLL, Agha Ramin Aziz, injor barkhord ha ba Rostayeean delavar va hamvataneton bodeh ke baes shodeh jonbesh Sabz shekasti sangin dar entekhabat bekhoreh. Afkareh bartari , man tehranieen va man shomale shahri hastam va on dahati va boley Gosfand mideh va .... baes shod ke mardom dar shahrestanha va rostaha bedonand che kasi az anan hemayat mikonad va .... Shoma mitoni benz dashteh bashi va khaneh va villa va eynake Gucci va shalvare Lee 7 va ... ama raye shoma yeki mahsob hast va rayee on rostayee mosalmane sadeh del ahmat kesh ham yeki mahsob misheh va yadet nareh, hamin bache shahretani ha va dahati ha bodan ke ba daste khali 8 sal dar jang va jebhehaye mogahas, khon rikhtan va az namoss shoma va amsale shoma defah kardan be eshgh seyedol shohahda va ajre on Donya.

Weren't what you mentioned above the same reasons you guys had your so called "Revolution", and after 30 years you are coming up with the same excuses, BAALAA SHAHRIA vs PAAEEN SHAHRIA, rich vs poor and so forth. I am glad you are confessing your revolution has failed and has failed miserably. What a pathetic group of people you guys are.
Get ready and pack your bags, your masters in Israel is building homes for you guys in the occupied land.
Don't you ever under estimate the brave villagers and less privileged people of Iran, they know better than to vote for such criminal. They may not live in the best parts of the country and drive the latest cars, but they won't vote for rapists.
Have you started to pack yet.

 

[Ramin]

yeah dude, time to teach your mom how to use a condom

:yohoo:

Priceless!!

 

[The_Referee]

The day before 25 Khordad demonstration shorayeh tamin amniat Tehran had estimated a crowd of up to 50000. They were ready for up to 100000. I know this for a fact. It was the shear number that made the day a success. The regime does not have the capacity of handling very large crowds. Unless the shoot people which so far they have shown they'd avoid. They prefer to kill in the backstreets and jails.

khodam jaan,

That estimate is good for their AMMEH.

Lets just focus on Azadi square and Azadi square only. Here is what Azadi looks like from google map:



As per mathmatical equations, an ellipse's area is

Area = Pi * A * B

Where A is half the semi-major axis of length A and semi-minor axis of length B
From the above picture A is 312 and B is 250 meters, so the Azadi area alone is: 3.14*250*312= 244,920 square meters!

So Azadi square alone and if we say 1 square meter per person, that is very genrous spacing, you know, then half a million can easily fit into the square. Now look at these pictures and judge for yourself, if what Shoraaye Tehran says make any sense. 50,000 people are 1/5th of the above. Does the picture below are 1/5th of Azadi sqaure:

Please bear in mind that I did not take Azadi street into account and also said 1 person for 1 square meter.

Now if you measure Azadi avenue on the map, it is 50 meters wide and between Enghelab to Azadi (excluding Azadi and Engelab squares) is around 4446 meters. We We take 10 meters out of the width for trees etc. That will be another 177, 840 meters. So just the Azadi square and the distance between Engelab and Azadi covers around 422760 meters! I am sure there were many more in the streets around and beyond Enghelab that day, despite the fact that the gathering was actually called off!

They come up with these ridiculously low numbers when IRIB hypes up the same area with millions figure when in 22 Bahman and other times.

Anyhow, they are sh*t scare of the same thing happening again.

 

[spanx]

He's saying they were anticipating crowds of 50k and 100k before and since it was much more than that the day was a success because things got out of their control ...

That's a good analysis though

 

[The_Referee]

He's saying they were anticipating crowds of 50k and 100k before and since it was much more than that the day was a success because things got out of their control ...

That's a good analysis though

Oh OK - thanks for the correction.
Apologies khodam jaan for not reading your post well!

 

[IraneMan]

Part 8
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi9wnChmXOk"]YouTube - ‫Ù￾یلم روزهای سبز حنا مخملباÙ￾ part8 hana makhmallbaf‬‎[/ame]

 

[The_Referee]

I also did some rough calculations on yesterday's crowd. I thought I'd put the 25th Khordad and that one here as a thread of its own:

[ame="http://forums.iransportspress.com/showthread.php?t=61342"]Estimates on Demonstration Crowds in Tehran! - Community - IranSportsPress.com[/ame]

Please add/comment/correct me there.

 

[General Parsaian]

Jamiyate Shomale Tehran 70 Million shodeh !!!

:4:

 

[General Parsaian]

امروز از لحن خامنه ای در خطبه های نماز جمعه معلوم بود که خیلی ترسیده
فکر کنم یا قبل از روز سپاهو بسیج بریزند توی خیابانها و از رفتن مردم به راهپیمایی جلوگیری کنند
یا اینکه یک نفر از بزرگان کشور را ترور کنند و به همین بهانه راهپیمایی را ماست مالی کنند

 

[The_Referee]

Originally Posted by MostafaIrani

Jamiyate Shomale Tehran 70 Million shodeh !!!

:4:

امروز از لحن خامنه ای در خطبه های نماز جمعه معلوم بود که خیلی ترسیده
فکر کنم یا قبل از روز سپاهو بسیج بریزند توی خیابانها و از رفتن مردم به راهپیمایی جلوگیری کنند
یا اینکه یک نفر از بزرگان کشور را ترور کنند و به همین بهانه راهپیمایی را ماست مالی کنند

Khodeti

 

[khodam]

Oh OK - thanks for the correction.
Apologies khodam jaan for not reading your post well!

Yes Referee jan that was what I meant. Interesting analysis though.

 

[DireStraits]

I agree, they are not sure how people will react that's why they haven't arrest neither Mousavi nor Karoubi otherwise they would have done it by now, I think if they do people will lost it.

He must survive until Qods day. I agree with Diruz on this
"It will all depend on the Ghods day rally." If people show their support
massively that day the govenment recognize the power he has behind him self. Otherwise he can be arrested any day.
I myself believe the government will do what ever it can so people dosen't
show up. So If a large support is shown the government will have to show respect to the reformists. Otherwise they should be prepared for cosequences.
It is interesting they start with arresting Karobi.
1- Maybe because they evaluate Karobi to be the smaller stone they should remove
2- Maybe because they know Mosavi will never support seriose fights against the government.

 

[MostafaIrani]

Weren't what you mentioned above the same reasons you guys had your so called "Revolution", and after 30 years you are coming up with the same excuses, BAALAA SHAHRIA vs PAAEEN SHAHRIA, rich vs poor and so forth. I am glad you are confessing your revolution has failed and has failed miserably. What a pathetic group of people you guys are.
Get ready and pack your bags, your masters in Israel is building homes for you guys in the occupied land.
Don't you ever under estimate the brave villagers and less privileged people of Iran, they know better than to vote for such criminal. They may not live in the best parts of the country and drive the latest cars, but they won't vote for rapists.
Have you started to pack yet.

Doste Aziz, Shoma bayad kami deghat konid va post ha ro behtar bekhonid. In Dostan Sabz Shoma hastan ke Rostaeeyan va shahrestani ha ro maskhareh mikonand !!! Inha hastam ke feker mikonan basiji ha hame az Rosta hastan va badan bayad beran Gav va Gosfand to sigeh konand !!! kami ensaf dashteh bashid rasti , az pack kardan bag gofti va .... Doste Azizam, basij va mardom mosalman va vafadar be rahbari be in sadegi taslim nemishan. Ma mesleh gorohi shahollahi nistim ke ta oza kami kharab shod, kifhamon ro jam konim va berim US va Europe !!! ma be in Sadegi Taslim Jasosan Sehyonist va US va Englis nemishim. ma mimanim va ba tamame vojod va ta akharin ghatreh khon, az Rahbar va Iran va Islam, dar barabar hojjjom Jasosan Seyhonist va US va Englis defa mikonim.

 

[MostafaIrani]

yeah dude, time to teach your mom how to use a condom

LOOOOLLL, che bamazeh hasti Gol manGoli !!! Tikehi ke andakhti Javab dareh ama bandeh nemikham ghavanin ISP ro beshkonam va be ghavanin in site Ehteram ghayel hastim. In shallah Rozi bozorg mishi va yad migiri ke chetori ba kasani ke nazareshon ba shoma fargh dareh dorost sohbat koni.Moafagh bashid

 

[Aryo Barzan]

He must survive until Qods day. I agree with Diruz on this
"It will all depend on the Ghods day rally." If people show their support
massively that day the govenment recognize the power he has behind him self. Otherwise he can be arrested any day.
I myself believe the government will do what ever it can so people dosen't
show up. So If a large support is shown the government will have to show respect to the reformists. Otherwise they should be prepared for cosequences.
It is interesting they start with arresting Karobi.
1- Maybe because they evaluate Karobi to be the smaller stone they should remove
2- Maybe because they know Mosavi will never support seriose fights against the government.

Yes Deerouz brought up a valid point as he always does. Ghods day could be a defining moment for this movement, I agree that Karobi seems to be more aggressive towards regime than Mousavi has been but than again it could be part of the arrangement they have to play it that way.