BH jan welcome back. I enjoyed reading your take on this and share your frustration. However I disagree with a couple of your points. First off I don't believe that KH is stronger than ever. On the contrary I think he has never been more weak. Secondly neither Mousavi nor Karoubi have ever claimed leadership of this movement. Mousavi in his statements has even claimed that the youth are the leaders and he is trying hard to not make this into a cult like movement surrounded by figures like himself. Although maybe this is a bad thing. For short term success maybe a leader like Khomeini that talks like "man too dahane in dowlat mizanam" would bring us victory sooner but we all saw what that got us into. In retrospect the strategy needs to change since this movement is stagnating even though alot of people turned out today.
One more thing. Just because the people would rather someone else lead or that he hasnt accepted leadership doesnt mean hes not the leader. Sadly he is the defacto leader no matter what people really want. He is the one that started this whole "green" thing and hes the one that is on the pictures people were holding up. Hopefully someone else will take the baton and run with it. Until then we are all stuck with him...
I don't share your opinion because I don't try to understand the mood in Iran through BBC, CNN, Wikipedia, or Google. When I talk to people around me, I don't get the feeling that they are waiting for Mousavi to go to streets for Ghods or 13 Aban. They would've gone to demonstrations today no matter what Mousavi had said. They have done that in the past. But it helps that he said go to the demonstrations. That's what I call using politicians and "alignment".
Seriously, answer this question: Do you think if Mousavi had told people to stay home today, they would have stayed home? Do you think that if he asks students to be calm in the universities, they won't protest anymore?
The answer to all those is no. Mousavi, Karoubi, and Khatami are behind steps taken by people. They are really followers and they have said that on numerous occasions.
You said his presidency was more of success for the system than for people; I took that as failure. Let me rephrase: What should have he done to make his presidency more of a success for people than for the system?
You gave me your reasons but I am asking what concrete achievements would have made him more of a success for Iran and Iranians than for the system?
Seriously, answer this question: Do you think if Mousavi had told people to stay home today, they would have stayed home? Do you think that if he asks students to be calm in the universities, they won't protest anymore?
The answer to all those is no. Mousavi, Karoubi, and Khatami are behind steps taken by people. They are really followers and they have said that on numerous occasions.
You said his presidency was more of success for the system than for people; I took that as failure. Let me rephrase: What should have he done to make his presidency more of a success for people than for the system?
You gave me your reasons but I am asking what concrete achievements would have made him more of a success for Iran and Iranians than for the system?
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LOL. No need to get personal aziz 
Your question is a blanket hypothetical. Hard not to answer in vague terms because there is context and relevance to everything. Just for arguments sake I will throw somethings out there.
Equality for women.
More power for ELECTED positions as opposed to Unelected positions in the government.
More transparency in government.
Better long term economic model and opportunity.
A drastic modernization of the legal system.
An actual reform platform, not just the "less evil" position by the reformers.
The main thing is. If his presidency were a success, there would be no Ahmadinejad, and at a minimum, this movement wouldve started the first time he was elected...
Your question is a blanket hypothetical. Hard not to answer in vague terms because there is context and relevance to everything. Just for arguments sake I will throw somethings out there.
Equality for women.
More power for ELECTED positions as opposed to Unelected positions in the government.
More transparency in government.
Better long term economic model and opportunity.
A drastic modernization of the legal system.
An actual reform platform, not just the "less evil" position by the reformers.
The main thing is. If his presidency were a success, there would be no Ahmadinejad, and at a minimum, this movement wouldve started the first time he was elected...
Things you're listing are great and fine. Some of those were achieved, at least partially. Some could not be achieved by him. Some, won't be achieved as long as there is IRI. So in short, may of the things you're listing were not realistic.
And in my opinion, this movement did in fact start when Khatami was elected in 97.
The movement is alive and well. Heck I myself am wearing a T shirt with Neda's picture on it. I myself had given up hope on change in Iran but now the movement has changed me.
As it has changed so many of us. Honestly, how many of you folks discussed politics so routinely or stayed up after midnight to follow what is happening in Iran? How many of you thought what is taking place today was even possible?
The regime has used force, they have tried to appease, they have tried to jail, but have not succeeded one bit in stopping this movement that will change this system altogether very soon.
What we saw today was an example of that. People showing up in big number in spite of threats of getting beaten up, locked up in a secret jail, or killed in the streets. Let them use force! That will only anger and encourage more people to join this movement.
Do not pin your hopes on a particular individual. This is a movement. Though I must say Karroubi has exceeded my expectations and proven himself to be one hell of a fighter.
Karroubi said it himself: Mardom agar hamintori vaystand in regime nemitone bishtar davam biareh. So I will say this again,
Natarsid Natarsid ma hameh ba ham hastim!
As it has changed so many of us. Honestly, how many of you folks discussed politics so routinely or stayed up after midnight to follow what is happening in Iran? How many of you thought what is taking place today was even possible?
The regime has used force, they have tried to appease, they have tried to jail, but have not succeeded one bit in stopping this movement that will change this system altogether very soon.
What we saw today was an example of that. People showing up in big number in spite of threats of getting beaten up, locked up in a secret jail, or killed in the streets. Let them use force! That will only anger and encourage more people to join this movement.
Do not pin your hopes on a particular individual. This is a movement. Though I must say Karroubi has exceeded my expectations and proven himself to be one hell of a fighter.
Karroubi said it himself: Mardom agar hamintori vaystand in regime nemitone bishtar davam biareh. So I will say this again,
Natarsid Natarsid ma hameh ba ham hastim!
I wasn't getting personal, of course that was a joke
Things you're listing are great and fine. Some of those were achieved, at least partially. Some could not be achieved by him. Some, won't be achieved as long as there is IRI. So in short, may of the things you're listing were not realistic.
And in my opinion, this movement did in fact start when Khatami was elected in 97.
Things you're listing are great and fine. Some of those were achieved, at least partially. Some could not be achieved by him. Some, won't be achieved as long as there is IRI. So in short, may of the things you're listing were not realistic.
And in my opinion, this movement did in fact start when Khatami was elected in 97.
But thats the problem right there. What is realistic? You cant say none of that is realistic so we must shoot for less. Those things arent a luxery aziz, those are necessary for any successful system of government. Again, people get happy when girls can show some hair and wear makeup without getting harrassed. Is our bar that low?
I understand when it comes to soccer, we should aim for something realistic, like making the world cup. Thats because we must improve as soccer players.
However when it comes to basic humanity and civility. Why must we simply just improve? Are our women any less than western women? Are our doctors any less than western doctors? Is our country any less than western countries?
Sure, we have a lot of backward ass apes in Iran. But why should the rest of us suffer while they learn how to be decent human beings?
Khatami relaxed some things when he was president. But what real changes did he make? How did the economy benefit? The legal system? The political institutions?
Not nearly enough. Even for Iranians
Thanks Zob Ahan jaan, I'm actually not frustrated any more and almost feel liberated as of this afternoon!
About your first point, as the old Samurai saying goes, whatever doesn't kill you, will make you stronger. He has withstood a very strong challenge to his leadership and since, he has received an outpouring of emotion support from both the reformists and conservatives saying how great he is and quoting his speeches, left, right and cetntre. He has received a stamp of approval from Khebregan solidifying his leadership position. His newspapers have dragged his softest oppoistion through the mud. He has fully demonstrated his power over the people, media and all political groups. He has given an order for the reform of universities which most likely would have been very harsh 6 months ago with full support. None of these are subjective, they are facts. And based on these facts, I'm concluding that he's stronger today than he was before. If you could counter these with some examples of how he's weaker, I'm certainly open to modifying my position.
And on your 2nd point, I think the lines between "the movement" and the "Green Movement" are becoming a little blurry in this discussion. I just want to make sure we're all talking about the same thing. Where did the color Green come from?
About your first point, as the old Samurai saying goes, whatever doesn't kill you, will make you stronger. He has withstood a very strong challenge to his leadership and since, he has received an outpouring of emotion support from both the reformists and conservatives saying how great he is and quoting his speeches, left, right and cetntre. He has received a stamp of approval from Khebregan solidifying his leadership position. His newspapers have dragged his softest oppoistion through the mud. He has fully demonstrated his power over the people, media and all political groups. He has given an order for the reform of universities which most likely would have been very harsh 6 months ago with full support. None of these are subjective, they are facts. And based on these facts, I'm concluding that he's stronger today than he was before. If you could counter these with some examples of how he's weaker, I'm certainly open to modifying my position.
And on your 2nd point, I think the lines between "the movement" and the "Green Movement" are becoming a little blurry in this discussion. I just want to make sure we're all talking about the same thing. Where did the color Green come from?
Well, what's your position Khodam jaan? Usually, when you ask a question, you get asked a question! Do you think Khatami's presidency was a success in every sense and if so why? And what concrete examples of his achievements and success can you give us?
Do you think Khatami's presidency was a success in every sense and if so why? And what concrete examples of his achievements and success can you give us?
There are only two achievements that I list for his presidency: Introducing the new political discourse and jargon we see today in Iran and undermining the concept of leadership.
The peaceful disobedience that we see today in people is from him. And believe me, that's the only way this regime can be removed. What most of people outside country (and many inside) saw as his cowardliness, has settled in our society. I'm not saying he invented civil disobedience but he institutionalized it in our society and helped people assimilate it. The fact that majority in Iran now believe in reform rather than revolution was also from him. And finally, he is the one who preached for 8 years that people should not wait for leaders, as they are the leaders. They are practicing it today.
Believe me, I don't want to praise Khatami or derail the discussion from today's events to what is now history. But how we evaluate Khatami is very germane to how well we understand and utilize the current movement. We cannot afford to be impatient. We cannot make the same mistake that we did in 2005; all we'll get is either another Ahmadinejad or a new IRI.
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There's valid points to both arguments.
I have to agree that Mousavi as a person who people have trusted and put at least a fraction of their hopes in has somewhat failed to make progressive improvements in his leadership tactics. I called for him to willingly take steps to get arrested 1 week after the protests started. I can dig up the post and paste it here. That would've been a great achievement for him and the movement. He didn't. He decided to go silent. His released statements have been far behind the actual position of the movement on the path to victory. He's following the lead of events which is exactly what a person with 30 million votes should not do if he/she wants to retain that level of popularity.
At the same time I would humbly ask friends to be careful when referring to the movement as "Green Movement". The Green Movement is just a name for people's general struggling and fighting against the Islamic regime since Khordad of 1388. It happens to have originated from Mousavi's election campaign which had a green theme.
The Green struggle is very alive and kicking. The leadership, not so much. Does that matter? Of course it does. It means people have to struggle even harder to achieve victory. Does it mean the movement is weak? Absolutely not. In fact, this lack of action on Mousavi's part may indeed end up being what this movement needs for the majority to finally decide that a secular regime is the only way to go and they should not demand anything less than the abolition of Islamic Republic all together.
Putting down people's effort is not going to work. If Mousavi and Khatami have failed to utilize the support they have, it doesn't mean their supporters are all idiots. Those supporters will eventually get what they want which is freedom. In the meantime a wise leader or two could emerge and greatly help the progress.
Who knows? Maybe Mousavi wakes up one of these days and finds himself fed up with all the crap and decides to be another Che Guevara. Maybe he won't. The end result is the same, but the events and timing leading to the end result will vary a lot depending on the leadership.
I have to agree that Mousavi as a person who people have trusted and put at least a fraction of their hopes in has somewhat failed to make progressive improvements in his leadership tactics. I called for him to willingly take steps to get arrested 1 week after the protests started. I can dig up the post and paste it here. That would've been a great achievement for him and the movement. He didn't. He decided to go silent. His released statements have been far behind the actual position of the movement on the path to victory. He's following the lead of events which is exactly what a person with 30 million votes should not do if he/she wants to retain that level of popularity.
At the same time I would humbly ask friends to be careful when referring to the movement as "Green Movement". The Green Movement is just a name for people's general struggling and fighting against the Islamic regime since Khordad of 1388. It happens to have originated from Mousavi's election campaign which had a green theme.
The Green struggle is very alive and kicking. The leadership, not so much. Does that matter? Of course it does. It means people have to struggle even harder to achieve victory. Does it mean the movement is weak? Absolutely not. In fact, this lack of action on Mousavi's part may indeed end up being what this movement needs for the majority to finally decide that a secular regime is the only way to go and they should not demand anything less than the abolition of Islamic Republic all together.
Putting down people's effort is not going to work. If Mousavi and Khatami have failed to utilize the support they have, it doesn't mean their supporters are all idiots. Those supporters will eventually get what they want which is freedom. In the meantime a wise leader or two could emerge and greatly help the progress.
Who knows? Maybe Mousavi wakes up one of these days and finds himself fed up with all the crap and decides to be another Che Guevara. Maybe he won't. The end result is the same, but the events and timing leading to the end result will vary a lot depending on the leadership.
Actually, I'm not basing any of my discussions on BBC, CNN, Wiki, Google or the small group of people around me (although you can refer to these sources for verification), rather the representation of Iranian society as whole based on a wide range of news from multiple media sources and people inside Iran. Today's demonstration was planned and sanctioned by the so called Green Movement as was the case with Qods day. As a contrast, demonstrations in universities are organized by smaller groups (people's movement) which may align themselves with the Green Movement, but are independantly controlled and in smaller groups.
I'm not sure where you're going with this or what this has to do with the discussion. I have not suggested, nor am I suggesting that there is no movement without Mousavi. These are some assumptions you're making on your own and not related to my argument at all.
What can I say bro, if I'm going to say something and you take it for something else, why should I bother saying anything at all?!
Farbod gave you a few examples and I agree with them as a good answer to your question. You can take that to be my response as well.
I'm not sure where you're going with this or what this has to do with the discussion. I have not suggested, nor am I suggesting that there is no movement without Mousavi. These are some assumptions you're making on your own and not related to my argument at all.
What can I say bro, if I'm going to say something and you take it for something else, why should I bother saying anything at all?!
Farbod gave you a few examples and I agree with them as a good answer to your question. You can take that to be my response as well.
Behrooz Jan
How can you possibly claim that Khamenei is stronger now that he was before?
He had the stamp approval of khobregan (boring people's) assembly even before.
The constant criticism that has been going his way and the taboos that were broken are what you have to consider a step forward. Before nobody dared to say Death to Khamenei now they call him a murderer openly and on regime days on the streets of Tehran.
Before they would lock you up and make sure you suffered long and hard for criticizing his majesty and now Mahmood Vahid Nia dares to stand up and criticize Khamenei at his own home while he is surrounded by all the baboons.
Khamenei's words does not cut it with AN either. Heck look where Mashayi is now.
Even the higher clerics are criticizing Khamenei. How often would Montazeri come out and say Khamenei does not have the necessary qualifications to be a Marja?
What this proves is that the people are fearless and that they will stop at nothing to remove this pathetic regime. Change is coming!
How can you possibly claim that Khamenei is stronger now that he was before?
He had the stamp approval of khobregan (boring people's) assembly even before.
The constant criticism that has been going his way and the taboos that were broken are what you have to consider a step forward. Before nobody dared to say Death to Khamenei now they call him a murderer openly and on regime days on the streets of Tehran.
Before they would lock you up and make sure you suffered long and hard for criticizing his majesty and now Mahmood Vahid Nia dares to stand up and criticize Khamenei at his own home while he is surrounded by all the baboons.
Khamenei's words does not cut it with AN either. Heck look where Mashayi is now.
Even the higher clerics are criticizing Khamenei. How often would Montazeri come out and say Khamenei does not have the necessary qualifications to be a Marja?
What this proves is that the people are fearless and that they will stop at nothing to remove this pathetic regime. Change is coming!
I don't disagree with you on this Khodam jaan, but you're gauging Khatami's success on the situation in Iran at the moment, which is 4 years after his presidency ended. First of all, I wouldn't dub the current situation in Iran as a success, unless success is actually achieved through this struggle. Secondly, because the situation has come to this point 4 years later and as a result of AN's failures on multiple levels, it's a bit of a stretch to say Khatami is instrumental in creating this situation, don't you think? The first and most important sign of "success" for his presidency IMHO wolud have been the re-election of the reformists.
Well, I'm not making any assumptions on my own. You said Mousavi is the leader of the green movement. I disagreed because I think people that were in the streets today were the green movement. I then went on to say that those people weren't following Mousavi in being in the streets today. They would've been demonstrating even without Mousavi (that is an assumption I am adding, do you disagree?). That means Mousavi is not their leader. I don't know what assumptions I'm making on my own or where I'm changing your words.
Sorry Bi-honar jan if I'm being argumentative. I'm just trying to get to the bottom of our disagreement or misuderstanding.
Sorry Bi-honar jan if I'm being argumentative. I'm just trying to get to the bottom of our disagreement or misuderstanding.