The Green That Turned Yellow Before Autumn

[Bi-honar]

Behrooz Jan

How can you possibly claim that Khamenei is stronger now that he was before?

He had the stamp approval of khobregan (boring people's) assembly even before.

The constant criticism that has been going his way and the taboos that were broken are what you have to consider a step forward. Before nobody dared to say Death to Khamenei now they call him a murderer openly and on regime days on the streets of Tehran.

Before they would lock you up and make sure you suffered long and hard for criticizing his majesty and now Mahmood Vahid Nia dares to stand up and criticize Khamenei at his own home while he is surrounded by all the baboons.

Khamenei's words does not cut it with AN either. Heck look where Mashayi is now.

Even the higher clerics are criticizing Khamenei. How often would Montazeri come out and say Khamenei does not have the necessary qualifications to be a Marja?

What this proves is that the people are fearless and that they will stop at nothing to remove this pathetic regime. Change is coming!

FI jaan, again the chants of death to Khamenei have nothing to do with the so-called Green Movement and are clearly against their goals and agenda. The so called Green Movement fully supports the supreme leader. I gave you examples of why I think he's stronger. The mere fact that someone's chanting death to the dictator doesn't make him weaker. If anything, it shows his strength in having dealt with the situation from what it was in June to the ever deacreasing chants of death to the dictator now. We must take note of the frequency and severity of dissent to be objective here, not the mere presence of dissent and use it as an argument to say he's stronger. Do you disagree with that?

Yes, I agree with you that people are fearless now, there's a lot of dissent even within the system and that change is coming. My only argument is that it's not coming from the Green Movement or anything within the system.

 

[Bi-honar]

Well, I'm not making any assumptions on my own. You said Mousavi is the leader of the green movement. I disagreed because I think people that were in the streets today were the green movement. I then went on to say that those people weren't following Mousavi in being in the streets today. They would've been demonstrating even without Mousavi (that is an assumption I am adding, do you disagree?). That means Mousavi is not their leader. I don't know what assumptions I'm making on my own or where I'm changing your words.

Sorry Bi-honar jan if I'm being argumentative. I'm just trying to get to the bottom of our disagreement or misuderstanding.

LOL. No worries bro, I like a good discussion as much as the next guy or wouldn't be here.

Okay, the assumption you're making is that Mousavi is NOT the leader of the Green Movmenet, but he is (gave you verifiable source and reasons). The other assumption you're making is that the people on the street today follow the Green Movement. That's not enitrely true anymore. Maybe it was up until Qods day, but people are now feeling disconnected and let down by the Green Movement. That's not to say that there's no movement, but it's not Green. If you notice, even the number of people wearing green has significantly decreased. The total number of protesters has also decreased. The reason is that we are in a transitional period, where people, being discontent with the Green Movmenet are continuing the resistance and struggle on their own terms. So, you are absolutely correct in saying that they're not there following Mousavi and they would have done so regardless. The mere chants of "death to the dictator" continuing is the perfect proof that this is now beyond the Green Movement. Does that make any more sense?

 

[Farbod (ADC)]

No one, so what? That is the point. People are running this thing and that's what matters.

Leaderless resistance might work for animal rights or environmental groups but can you tell me one time in Human History that it has ever worked?

Kourosh
Che
Lenin
Reza Pahlavi
Khomeini
George Washington
Zapata
Trotsky
William Wallace
Robespierre
Ataturk

Like them or not. Agree with them or not. These were revolutionaries. Ideas are great and are immortal, but name one time an idea alone without someone to give it life ever made real change.

 

[Bi-honar]

There's valid points to both arguments.

I have to agree that Mousavi as a person who people have trusted and put at least a fraction of their hopes in has somewhat failed to make progressive improvements in his leadership tactics. I called for him to willingly take steps to get arrested 1 week after the protests started. I can dig up the post and paste it here. That would've been a great achievement for him and the movement. He didn't. He decided to go silent. His released statements have been far behind the actual position of the movement on the path to victory. He's following the lead of events which is exactly what a person with 30 million votes should not do if he/she wants to retain that level of popularity.

At the same time I would humbly ask friends to be careful when referring to the movement as "Green Movement". The Green Movement is just a name for people's general struggling and fighting against the Islamic regime since Khordad of 1388. It happens to have originated from Mousavi's election campaign which had a green theme.

The Green struggle is very alive and kicking. The leadership, not so much. Does that matter? Of course it does. It means people have to struggle even harder to achieve victory. Does it mean the movement is weak? Absolutely not. In fact, this lack of action on Mousavi's part may indeed end up being what this movement needs for the majority to finally decide that a secular regime is the only way to go and they should not demand anything less than the abolition of Islamic Republic all together.

Putting down people's effort is not going to work. If Mousavi and Khatami have failed to utilize the support they have, it doesn't mean their supporters are all idiots. Those supporters will eventually get what they want which is freedom. In the meantime a wise leader or two could emerge and greatly help the progress.

Who knows? Maybe Mousavi wakes up one of these days and finds himself fed up with all the crap and decides to be another Che Guevara. Maybe he won't. The end result is the same, but the events and timing leading to the end result will vary a lot depending on the leadership.

Sorosh jaan, thank you for that post and I agree fully with your 1st paragraph. The part that I think is getting a little bit blurry for all of us and I'm glad I wrote this piece to stir up the $hit, is this limiting definition of the Green Movement. Yes, you are absolutely correct and the struggle is alive and well. But, do we need to continue using the term "Green Movment" for it and for most parts, limit its scope, reach and golas? That's the question that I was trying to pose, although judging by the circular arguments I have created, I'm feeling a little green behind the ears!

 

[Zob Ahan]

Thanks Zob Ahan jaan, I'm actually not frustrated any more and almost feel liberated as of this afternoon!

About your first point, as the old Samurai saying goes, whatever doesn't kill you, will make you stronger. He has withstood a very strong challenge to his leadership and since, he has received an outpouring of emotion support from both the reformists and conservatives saying how great he is and quoting his speeches, left, right and cetntre. He has received a stamp of approval from Khebregan solidifying his leadership position. His newspapers have dragged his softest oppoistion through the mud. He has fully demonstrated his power over the people, media and all political groups. He has given an order for the reform of universities which most likely would have been very harsh 6 months ago with full support. None of these are subjective, they are facts. And based on these facts, I'm concluding that he's stronger today than he was before. If you could counter these with some examples of how he's weaker, I'm certainly open to modifying my position.

And on your 2nd point, I think the lines between "the movement" and the "Green Movement" are becoming a little blurry in this discussion. I just want to make sure we're all talking about the same thing. Where did the color Green come from?

Maybe I missed the outpouring of emotional support of reformers to KH. Could you tell me who has done so.
All I have seen is AN defying his orders to drop Mashai and a student getting behind the mike and critisizing him in broad daylight on his home turf and weeks going by without a public appearance and body language that shows that he is all screwed up in the head. People don't even know if he was the leader of the coup or Sepah twisted his arm or Mojtaba is the main culprit. Before all this happened I don't remember seeing a marg bar khamenei anywhere but nowadays thats all you see. All of this tells me that he and the office of VF has been weakened.

 

[footballeirani]

Bi Honar Jan

I think others have previously made the point that neither Mousavi and Karroubi are the leaders of the green movement and rather followers of it. So could you please remind me where you got the idea or read that saying Death to Khamenei is against the goals and agenda of this movement when the people are clearly chanting them in their rallies? :confused-

I think you are getting a little too technical with the definitions and what is the green movement and what is not or what they wish to accomplish or not.

 

[Zob Ahan]

LOL. No worries bro, I like a good discussion as much as the next guy or wouldn't be here.

Okay, the assumption you're making is that Mousavi is NOT the leader of the Green Movmenet, but he is (gave you verifiable source and reasons). The other assumption you're making is that the people on the street today follow the Green Movement. That's not enitrely true anymore. Maybe it was up until Qods day, but people are now feeling disconnected and let down by the Green Movement. That's not to say that there's no movement, but it's not Green. If you notice, even the number of people wearing green has significantly decreased. The total number of protesters has also decreased. The reason is that we are in a transitional period, where people, being discontent with the Green Movmenet are continuing the resistance and struggle on their own terms. So, you are absolutely correct in saying that they're not there following Mousavi and they would have done so regardless. The mere chants of "death to the dictator" continuing is the perfect proof that this is now beyond the Green Movement. Does that make any more sense?

BH jan I think alot of people weren't wearing green out of fear. Even Sazegara said not to wear green to minimize the risk of getting beaten up.

 

[masoudA]

Bi-Honar jaan
I too share your frustration - especialy after the high anxiety and expectations that was created around 13 Aban. I even tried yesterday to make sure expectations are not set too high (check the thread "Farda") so we would not experience a big let-down. What did you think - agovernment taht is fully armed and totally willing to kill the citizens to just disappear with a demonstration? We are just in the begining of a long road buddy - and would be extremely lucky if we can bring IRI down without extreme bloodshed and without military support by the international community.

 

[Bi-honar]

Maybe I missed the outpouring of emotional support of reformers to KH. Could you tell me who has done so.
All I have seen is AN defying his orders to drop Mashai and a student getting behind the mike and critisizing him in broad daylight on his home turf and weeks going by without a public appearance and body language that shows that he is all screwed up in the head. People don't even know if he was the leader of the coup or Sepah twisted his arm or Mojtaba is the main culprit. Before all this happened I don't remember seeing a marg bar khamenei anywhere but nowadays thats all you see. All of this tells me that he and the office of VF has been weakened.

You just have to read Parlemannews for a few days ZobAhan jaan. There's so much indirect ass kissing, it's not even funny. Rahbar said, people's rights have to be protected. Rahbar said don't attack people in the media, blah, blah, blah. All the while Rahbar's Keyhan is sticking it to these guys left, right and centre and to complain, again they quote what Rahbar said. I have not seen a single "official" direct statement to the contrary.

Well, AN is a different story, he's a loose canon, but still that Mashaei incident is long behind them. There has been a lot of kissing and making up since then, even with the reformists. This "tarhe maslehate nezaam" that seemed to have just vanished into thin air, brought everyone on the same page behind closed doors - of course there's no direct proof of that, other than what we see today compared to 2 months ago.

Again ZA jaan, mere existence of dissent does not make any entity weaker, nor does the voicing of such dissent. There's absolutely no shred of evidence that Khamenei's position is in danger, threatened or challenged, even as much as it was challenged by a large group of people 3 months ago (i.e. he has solidified his position in every way possible). You and I can scream death to the dictator in small groups, every couple of months till the end of time, but that doesn't mean he's just going to pack his bags and leave.

Had the situation continued at the levels it was in June, before the so called Green Movement urged the people to be peaceful and request change from within the syste (i.e. no chants of death to the dictator), it would have been a totally different story. Having said that, that point in June will come again, but under a different banner and with a new leader and it won't be non-violent, it won't request change within the system, etc. Then, we can say that his position is challenged and he's weakend once again.

 

[deerouz]

Surely, you agree that there's less freedom in Iran that there was 6 months ago. Surely, you agree that nothing has changed for the positive whatsoever. In fact, I think you'll be hard pressed to disagree with many of the other statements in there.

wow dear BH! I am completely with Khodam here. Nothing has changed for positive whatsoever? We have got every red line crossed, one whole generation of IRI ex-leaders and a great fraction of the former IRI supporters almost completely torn apart from the velayat-faghih system and you are still saying what was the positive outcome? I guess this is a valid question, depending on what outcome you expected to see within six month. A complete overhaul of a brutal ideological system? How long did it take for Mandela (27 years), Gandhi (30 years), Post-Stalin Soviet reformers (40 years), even MLK (One generation) to bring down the system? Six month and the system is still there. Terrible!

I have been a harsh critic of Khatami not because he didn't do anything, but because he could do even more. He shook the ideological foundation of the regime to the core and planted the seeds for the civil movement that followed afterwards. he could have done a lot more if he was stronger, but that was not in his nature. It was not a sham. He didn't defraud us. He had not promised anything that he did not try to achieve. He was unable to deliver more, but it is quite unfair to say he did not do anything.

Sure, he was followed by Ahmadinejad. Khroshchev, the first Soviet reformer, was also followed by Brezhnev. But the reforms that he planted took root in the heart of the soviet empire and eventually led to a Gorbachev 20 years down the road. Brezhnev became a caricature of Stalin, as Khamenei is now merely a caricature of Khomeini.

We should definitely ask what we want. If you want a revolution and quick change in Iran, you are right. This movement will not get you there any time soon. Me, I oppose revolutions. We had one 30 years a go and ruined our country. Why are we looking for another one?! I recall you were always in favour of deep cultural changes. You do the comparison and tell me if there has been no cultural change in Iran between early 1990s and now?

This is something that has taken root. If we want deep, permanent changes, we have to accept that the society will move at its own pace. And this society includes everyone; including its current rulers. Permanent changes arrive when it becomes impossible for rulers to rule in the old dictatorial style; the way it was achieved most prominently in south America. Once the society advances to that level, the IRI ceases to exist. Any rapid changes before that, you will end up with another dictatorial system with only cosmetic differences.

My 2 cents.

 

[Bi-honar]

Bi Honar Jan

I think others have previously made the point that neither Mousavi and Karroubi are the leaders of the green movement and rather followers of it. So could you please remind me where you got the idea or read that saying Death to Khamenei is against the goals and agenda of this movement when the people are clearly chanting them in their rallies? :confused-

I think you are getting a little too technical with the definitions and what is the green movement and what is not or what they wish to accomplish or not.

Maybe I am bro. But, when you have Mohajerani coming to the US and presenting the views of the "Green Movement", he sure as hell is not asking what the majority of people in Iran are asking for, but what the leaders of the Green Movmenet are after. Mousavi in August even went as far as changing the name of the Green Movement to the Green Path of Hope, so that he could continue under that banner without the special permits needed for a "movement" or party.

You guys are saying that the people all of a sudden came up with the name Green Movement and then Mousavi and Krroubi decided to follow them. I don't think this is accurate. Green was the color of Mousavi's campaign and he has been adament about this from the start. I'm suggesting that he brought the people's movement (which had no name or leaders) under his own brand, called it the Green Movement and has been directing it since, although the people have now caught on to the deception.

BH jan I think alot of people weren't wearing green out of fear. Even Sazegara said not to wear green to minimize the risk of getting beaten up.

To be honest with you ZA jaan, I think that was a face saving suggestion. Green has been slowly dying among the protesters for a while and they want to say that they're still calling the shots. I think most of you are agreeing with me that they're not. At least not anymore.

Bi-Honar jaan
I too share your frustration - especialy after the high anxiety and expectations that was created around 13 Aban. I even tried yesterday to make sure expectations are not set too high (check the thread "Farda") so we would not experience a big let-down. What did you think - agovernment taht is fully armed and totally willing to kill the citizens to just disappear with a demonstration? We are just in the begining of a long road buddy - and would be extremely lucky if we can bring IRI down without extreme bloodshed and without military support by the international community.

Bingo. I think the majority will come to this conclusion sooner or later.

 

[footballeirani]

Behrooz Jan

I do not think at this point it is wise for us to say the minority majles members are or are not a part of the green movement. In fact I would say everyone of these groups or factions are a part of the greens and do contribute to the movement at their own capacity but that does not mean their agendas are the agendas of the movement as a whole and their goals are shared by all those who identify themselves with the greens.

Unity is what we need at this point and I think you are wrong in your estimates that people are going their own way. Just look where the majority of beatings and violence took place today, the 7 Tir square where Karroubi was going to show up and join the protesters. If people were sick and felt disconnected from him, they would not be chanting his name most of the time in their rally.

And I think most associate and recognize the main and broad opposition as Greens, so why try going your own way and suggest a split just because someone else in the same movement may not want to say Death to Khamenei?

 

[deerouz]

You just have to read Parlemannews for a few days ZobAhan jaan. There's so much indirect ass kissing, it's not even funny. Rahbar said, people's rights have to be protected. Rahbar said don't attack people in the media, blah, blah, blah. All the while Rahbar's Keyhan is sticking it to these guys left, right and centre and to complain, again they quote what Rahbar said. I have not seen a single "official" direct statement to the contrary.

Well, AN is a different story, he's a loose canon, but still that Mashaei incident is long behind them. There has been a lot of kissing and making up since then, even with the reformists. This "tarhe maslehate nezaam" that seemed to have just vanished into thin air, brought everyone on the same page behind closed doors - of course there's no direct proof of that, other than what we see today compared to 2 months ago.

Strangely, we read the events in completely different ways. I am not suggesting that my view is necessarily right, but simply that I really don't see the events in that way at all.

Had the situation continued at the levels it was in June, before the so called Green Movement urged the people to be peaceful and request change from within the syste (i.e. no chants of death to the dictator), it would have been a totally different story.

It would have been a totally different story only in the sense that had it followed your advice, it would have been crushed by now, with thousands dead and thousands more in prison, likely a complete military style government with no one daring to breath anywhere, let alone chanting 'death to dictator". We experienced exactly that scenario in 1981.

 

[Bi-honar]

wow dear BH! I am completely with Khodam here. Nothing has changed for positive whatsoever? We have got every red line crossed, one whole generation of IRI ex-leaders and a great fraction of the former IRI supporters almost completely torn apart from the velayat-faghih system and you are still saying what was the positive outcome? I guess this is a valid question, depending on what outcome you expected to see within six month. A complete overhaul of a brutal ideological system? How long did it take for Mandela (27 years), Gandhi (30 years), Post-Stalin Soviet reformers (40 years), even MLK (One generation) to bring down the system? Six month and the system is still there. Terrible!

I have been a harsh critic of Khatami not because he didn't do anything, but because he could do even more. He shook the ideological foundation of the regime to the core and planted the seeds for the civil movement that followed afterwards. he could have done a lot more if he was stronger, but that was not in his nature. It was not a sham. He didn't defraud us. He had not promised anything that he did not try to achieve. He was unable to deliver more, but it is quite unfair to say he did not do anything.

Sure, he was followed by Ahmadinejad. Khroshchev, the first Soviet reformer, was also followed by Brezhnev. But the reforms that he planted took root in the heart of the soviet empire and eventually led to a Gorbachev 20 years down the road. Brezhnev became a caricature of Stalin, as Khamenei is now merely a caricature of Khomeini.

We should definitely ask what we want. If you want a revolution and quick change in Iran, you are right. This movement will not get you there any time soon. Me, I oppose revolutions. We had one 30 years a go and ruined our country. Why are we looking for another one?! I recall you were always in favour of deep cultural changes. You do the comparison and tell me if there has been no cultural change in Iran between early 1990s and now?

This is something that has taken root. If we want deep, permanent changes, we have to accept that the society will move at its own pace. And this society includes everyone; including its current rulers. Permanent changes arrive when it becomes impossible for rulers to rule in the old dictatorial style; the way it was achieved most prominently in south America. Once the society advances to that level, the IRI ceases to exist. Any rapid changes before that, you will end up with another dictatorial system with only cosmetic differences.

My 2 cents.

Great post Deerouz jaan and I agree with you completely (with the minor exception below). I don't think that most people understand or appreciate that at this rate, change is to be expected in 20-30 years. I fully appreciate that and do not oppose this type of slow and steady change. But most Iranians are expecting change much quicker than that, in a matter of months or worst case scneraio years, not decades. The Green Movement or Green Path of Hope is not going to bring them this type of change - that's what I'm trying to say.

As for the minor exception, I don't think they're completely torn apart from the concept of VF. I think every single one og these guys knows that without VF, none of them would have been where they are today and without VF and in a fully democratic Iran, none of them would be where they are today. VF is the hand that feeds them and they may have been dissatisfied and voiced some scattered concerns and indirect criticism, but I think they've either come to that realization or beeen reminded of that in very clearl terms behind the scenes.

-------------

PS. I gotta run to my mom's now guys, or I will never hear the end of dinner got cold!

 

[Bache Tehroon]

What a great thread this turned out to be. ISP staff, see that's what I mean by "valuable members" when I scream my lungs out about keeping the intelligent posters around? Try getting this much value out of a thread consisting of posts by trolls and ideological retards.

This is what I come here for, not stuff like imported nuclear technology or "Hezbe Mehr" announcements.

 

[Zob Ahan]

Maybe I am bro. But, when you have Mohajerani coming to the US and presenting the views of the "Green Movement", he sure as hell is not asking what the majority of people in Iran are asking for, but what the leaders of the Green Movmenet are after. Mousavi in August even went as far as changing the name of the Green Movement to the Green Path of Hope, so that he could continue under that banner without the special permits needed for a "movement" or party.

You guys are saying that the people all of a sudden came up with the name Green Movement and then Mousavi and Krroubi decided to follow them. I don't think this is accurate. Green was the color of Mousavi's campaign and he has been adament about this from the start. I'm suggesting that he brought the people's movement (which had no name or leaders) under his own brand, called it the Green Movement and has been directing it since, although the people have now caught on to the deception.



To be honest with you ZA jaan, I think that was a face saving suggestion. Green has been slowly dying among the protesters for a while and they want to say that they're still calling the shots. I think most of you are agreeing with me that they're not. At least not anymore.



Bingo. I think the majority will come to this conclusion sooner or later.

BH jan, What did Mohajerani say that is not in line with what the "people" want? You are also suggesting that the same "people" were deceived by Mousavi and the Green Movement. To me it seems like you are separating the "people" and the "Green Movement". If the people have caught on to this deception then some new leadership should be emerging. Who do you suggest that is? Who do you suggest it should be?

 

[footballeirani]

BH jan, What did Mohajerani say that is not in line with what the "people" want? You are also suggesting that the same "people" were deceived by Mousavi and the Green Movement. To me it seems like you are separating the "people" and the "Green Movement". If the people have caught on to this deception then some new leadership should be emerging. Who do you suggest that is? Who do you suggest it should be?

Mohajerani said something along the lines of those who say "Esteghlal Azadi Jomhoori Irani" are trying to appease USA and Israel.

I do not think you could take the reformist politicians and somehow make them the faces and leaders of the current green movement or say their ideas or agendas constitute what the people are asking for.

The likes of Mohajerani and Masoumeh Ebtekar may be reformists but they by no mean are the spokesperson for the people.

 

[khodam]

I don't think that most people understand or appreciate that at this rate, change is to be expected in 20-30 years.

That is the point. As Deerouz said if you're after revolution, then this movement as it is moving ahead now won't be it. But I think we will have major reforms in 2-5 years and in 20 years will enjoy a vibrant democracy. I know that 20 years sounds a distant future but hey, we've been at this for a century. What is 20 years?!!

 

[khodam]

What a great thread this turned out to be. ISP staff, see that's what I mean by "valuable members" when I scream my lungs out about keeping the intelligent posters around? Try getting this much value out of a thread consisting of posts by trolls and ideological retards.

This is what I come here for, not stuff like imported nuclear technology or "Hezbe Mehr" announcements.

Wonders of troll-free boards!

We better use it in the next few days before Goroohban Ghandali's back!

 

[deerouz]

Great post Deerouz jaan and I agree with you completely (with the minor exception below). I don't think that most people understand or appreciate that at this rate, change is to be expected in 20-30 years. I fully appreciate that and do not oppose this type of slow and steady change. But most Iranians are expecting change much quicker than that, in a matter of months or worst case scneraio years, not decades. The Green Movement or Green Path of Hope is not going to bring them this type of change - that's what I'm trying to say.

My bad. I should not have said 20-30 years. Who knows how long. Could be 1-2 years or 20 years. As much as it takes until the society is ready. And the people in Iran know it. I think the criteria is what they think of Mousavi and Green movement. Do people in Iran think it is too slow? Once they do, or if Mousavi fails in his leadership people will abondon him no doubt. As they did with Khatami when they realised there is nothing more he could do. Have they abondoned Mousavi and karoubi? I don't see it yet. So far the green supporters have been supporting their leadership in trying to minimize the human cost and to protect lives; and I absolutely agree with them on this point.

As for the minor exception, I don't think they're completely torn apart from the concept of VF. I think every single one og these guys knows that without VF, none of them would have been where they are today and without VF and in a fully democratic Iran, none of them would be where they are today. VF is the hand that feeds them and they may have been dissatisfied and voiced some scattered concerns and indirect criticism, but I think they've either come to that realization or beeen reminded of that in very clearl terms behind the scenes.

Perhaps in the past, but not anymore. there is no question that there will be no future for these reformist politicians in the VF system from this point on. Their opposition may be out of spite or the fact that they have been forced out of power. But even among them a few will start to question their beliefs. and the rest will keep with the green movement out of spite for Khamenei. That's sufficient.

Enjoy your dinner BTW!