What's going to happen is a group of charlatans will rise to power (probably AN's gang) who will gain enough grip on the system that leaves Khamenei (or his replacement) no choice but to open talks with the west. Once that happens, slowly the economy will stablize and the nation will once again go about their lives (just like Rafsanjani/Khatami era).
The cycle will continue until someone makes a suicidal decision to start a war. There's war written in Iran's near future. Even with a fully democratic system and a happy nation, Iran is not a country that can avoid war for too long. Iranians are waaaaay too proud/stupid to sit silently and be out of headlines.
The cycle will continue until someone makes a suicidal decision to start a war. There's war written in Iran's near future. Even with a fully democratic system and a happy nation, Iran is not a country that can avoid war for too long. Iranians are waaaaay too proud/stupid to sit silently and be out of headlines.
Yes, there was a lot of confusion in those early hours. Mousavi did get a little over-excited and made the announcement that he had won. People who wanted change (and viewed Mousavi as the only candidate who could deliver them) showed up to his campaign headquarters and started celebrating - this is while the voting was still going on! NE dispersed the crowds with teargas and the situation got completely out of control from that point on - this was between 12-2 a.m. on the 13th. When the official election results were announced around 2 a.m., Mousavi's supporters (not Mousavi) said the vote count was rigged and fraudulent and they were already clashing with NE on several fronts - clashes that carried through starting 7 a.m. again the next morning all over Tehran.
This is an article from early that morning: http://www.iranhumanrights.org/2009/06/electionfraud/ As you can see, it doesn't mention anything about a news release by Mousavi claiming the elections were rigged, while the protests were going on.
These are videos of the 13th - as you can see everything was in full motion since 7 a.m. that day before Mousavi had made any comments yet: http://www.iranhumanrights.org/2009/06/protest-videos/
By 1:30 p.m. (Terhan time) Makhmalbaf in Paris fanned the flames by saying that the ministry officials had told Mousavi he was the winner and claiming to speak on behalf of Mousavi (Mousavi's office later denied the news and that Makhmalbaf was his spokesperson!!!). At 1:00 p.m. Mousavi ALLEDGEDLY releases a news statement, not saying that the regime rigged the results, but that people were surprised at the results. The emphasis here is on ALLEDGEDLY, because I can not find the Persian text of thie letter anywhere, nor anyone who has released the English translation has said how they obtained that letter!!!
The next day, Mousavi officially disputed the results through leagal means requesting the Guardian council to look into the matter. It's tough to fathom, not only how Mousavi would have released a statement (since his offices were shut down and his computers ceased the night before and no one knew his whereabouts), but also how such an important document would have completely vanished from the web and why Mousavi's office officially denied that anyone was speaking on his behalf on that day. All news releases outside the country were based on this one translated document whose authenticity has been questioned and I can not find it at all.
If you can find that news release by Mousavi in Persian or any other article where Mousavi admits to putting out that news release I would be VERY interested to see it and it would be MUCH appreciated.
No, I supported the struggle from the beginning and gave them the benefit of the doubt. But all I saw from them was one statement after another in support of VF and wanting to save the system. Like I said before, there was even some violence reported during the polling, so this thing was in the making for at least two months before Mousavi claimed to be the winner. Whoever, was responsible for organizing the students, fooled Mousavi into taking some uncalculated steps in those early hours - from that point on and in retrospect, everything these guys did was damage control.
Reports of Mousavi Telling People to Go Home (June 15th): http://eldercato.wordpress.com/2009/06/15/reports-of-mousavi-telling-people-to-go-home/
Reports of Mousavi Telling People to Go Home (June 15th): http://eldercato.wordpress.com/2009/06/15/reports-of-mousavi-telling-people-to-go-home/
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This is very interesting too - BBC interview with Makhmalbaf on June 15th - for all we know, someone (the real opposition) could have fooled Mousavi with that phone call from the ministry making him believe that he had won. While he was alledgedly on the phone with Makhmalbaf, NE arrived and said they're not accepting the green revolution?! What revolution - not one by Mousavi, that's for sure!!! I'm telling you guys NE knew about this weeks in advance. Both sides used Mousavi as a tool:
[video]<iframe src="http://archive.org/embed/MohsenMakhmalbaf-bbcRadio4June152009" width="500" height="30" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="true" mozallowfullscreen="true" allowfullscreen></iframe>[/video]
Text of the interview: http://warlaw.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/mohsen-makhmalbaf-bbc-radio-4-monday-june-15-2009-518pm/
[video]<iframe src="http://archive.org/embed/MohsenMakhmalbaf-bbcRadio4June152009" width="500" height="30" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="true" mozallowfullscreen="true" allowfullscreen></iframe>[/video]
Text of the interview: http://warlaw.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/mohsen-makhmalbaf-bbc-radio-4-monday-june-15-2009-518pm/
I am sorry but I don’t mean to disrespect your hard work in finding sources to back up your claim but I don’t consider your source trustworthy because it’s a very biased source. First you said Musavi didn’t claim the votes were rigged or manipulated but there is clear evidence he made that claim in the early hours of the day after the votes . Also , the days after the elections in the morning there were no signs of any major protests , people were heading to work but were upset and hear broken. Mussavi made a statement about voting irregularities and manipulation is the early hours of Saturday 6.13 which was the day after the elections , Karoubi did the same thing. Mussavi in fact warned that his supporters would come on the streets and protest if his demands weren’t meet and then later late morning-afternoon people started coming out more and more.
Well, I'm not saying there isn't "clear evidence" - I'm simply saying that I haven't seen it and everything I have seen has been to the contrary. That clear evidence would be the actual news release from Mousavi in Farsi and/or an acknowledgement of it by Mousavi or an official spokesperson for Mousavi - not a highly unreliable foreign news organization regurgitating information from other sources. We obviously can't accuse the media of sensationalism one day and believe everything these say the next. Here's the full English text on EA:
http://www.enduringamerica.com/home...ack-text-of-mousavi-letter-to-his-suppor.html
Click on the link for the Persian text and see what happens (we'll come back to this)! All of the news organizations based their news on a tweet by TehranBureau.com (who was a very active tweeting entity at that time and for a few months after). They said that it was Mousavi's statement and that they had obtained it without giving their source. The story was spread by a US private intelligence company and then picked up by New York Times and mentioned in their live blog from which point it all snow-balled and was reported by dozens of news organizations, although all in a different format and with varying degrees of criticality of the elections.
Although TehranBureau.com remained active for some time after the elections, soon it became known in the Tweeter community that she was not a reliable source of information, contrary to previous beliefs. Soon after, they vanished from the scene. Type TehranBureau.com and see what you get! That's right, it's some news outlet that belongs to PBS (i.e. the first link you clicked from the EA article to find that no such text existed)!!!
Whether it was a hoax or a calculated move by someone, I don't know, but all I know is that the press release has completely vanished from the web as has the organization or entity that 1st reported it (this link gives the details of what happened and should clear out most confusion surrounding this imaginary document - feel free to click on the links on that page too and see if they show you the document:
http://smtp.www.ufppc.org/us-a-worl...-june-13-letter-from-mousavi-translation.html)
Again, if someone has the original document or a link to it, or a link by Mousavi or one of his official spokespeople mentioning that news release, I would love to see it.
http://www.enduringamerica.com/home...ack-text-of-mousavi-letter-to-his-suppor.html
Click on the link for the Persian text and see what happens (we'll come back to this)! All of the news organizations based their news on a tweet by TehranBureau.com (who was a very active tweeting entity at that time and for a few months after). They said that it was Mousavi's statement and that they had obtained it without giving their source. The story was spread by a US private intelligence company and then picked up by New York Times and mentioned in their live blog from which point it all snow-balled and was reported by dozens of news organizations, although all in a different format and with varying degrees of criticality of the elections.
Although TehranBureau.com remained active for some time after the elections, soon it became known in the Tweeter community that she was not a reliable source of information, contrary to previous beliefs. Soon after, they vanished from the scene. Type TehranBureau.com and see what you get! That's right, it's some news outlet that belongs to PBS (i.e. the first link you clicked from the EA article to find that no such text existed)!!!
Whether it was a hoax or a calculated move by someone, I don't know, but all I know is that the press release has completely vanished from the web as has the organization or entity that 1st reported it (this link gives the details of what happened and should clear out most confusion surrounding this imaginary document - feel free to click on the links on that page too and see if they show you the document:
http://smtp.www.ufppc.org/us-a-worl...-june-13-letter-from-mousavi-translation.html)
Again, if someone has the original document or a link to it, or a link by Mousavi or one of his official spokespeople mentioning that news release, I would love to see it.
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BH jan there is no doubt that MHM/MK saw that the "nezam" was in trouble and they could have thrown their arms up in the air. They could have enjoyed being the "abaki" opposition party and easily win in 1392 election in a landslide but the fact is they didn't and paid a price for it by being under arrest. That we should recognize and move on. The fact that they ruined the overthrow by saying go home is overstatement. If the mood was there someone else would have filled the vacume and a jomhooriye Irani was in place. People didn't want to pay the price for a IR light or the unknown.
Siavash jaan, my opinion is that we owe it, not only to the hundreds of people that were killed and the thousands that were tortured or jailed, but to the millions that poured onto the streets and braved the odds and fought the regime for weeks and months, to at least seek the truth and find out the real reasons of why they failed, because their aspirations haven't changed and their struggles haven't got any easier.
I acknowledge that it's much easier on our conscience to blame the grand failure on the ball-less and cowardly Iranian population who stumbled in the footseteps of two great visionaries and giant revolutionaries, but that's not the truth. The people on the streets were the great visionaries and the revolutionary giants and the ball-less cowards are those who for 30 years talked about martyrdom and now live like a couple of fish in a fish bowl.
If they weren't the real leaders of the movement, then let's stop saying that they were. And if they were the leaders of the movement, then the blame should go to no one else but them. Not once did Mousavi and Karroubi ask people to come to the streets and the people didn't show up. But you know how many times people showed up on the streets without Mousavi and Karroubi? You think that's how revolutionary leaders in Egypt "led" their people?
I acknowledge that it's much easier on our conscience to blame the grand failure on the ball-less and cowardly Iranian population who stumbled in the footseteps of two great visionaries and giant revolutionaries, but that's not the truth. The people on the streets were the great visionaries and the revolutionary giants and the ball-less cowards are those who for 30 years talked about martyrdom and now live like a couple of fish in a fish bowl.
If they weren't the real leaders of the movement, then let's stop saying that they were. And if they were the leaders of the movement, then the blame should go to no one else but them. Not once did Mousavi and Karroubi ask people to come to the streets and the people didn't show up. But you know how many times people showed up on the streets without Mousavi and Karroubi? You think that's how revolutionary leaders in Egypt "led" their people?
Come on Behroujan. What do you mean?
Mousavi and Karoubi asked people to come to the streets and got arrested. The same people that were chanting "Mousavi dastgir beshe, Iran ghiamat mishe" backed down and went home. That's not Mousavi's fault.
When you're on a strike in your company and the leader of your strike gets fired, you're not really supposed to go back to work and pretend like nothing has happened.
In any case, these things are irrelevant to the grand picture which is of Sepah's absolute dominance over Iran. It wouldn't have mattered if people showed up in millions or thousands. Sepah would've unleashed tanks and bombers on them. We are seeing examples of Sepah's work in Syria.
It was a lose/lose situation from day one. It's still a lose-lose situation. These are the consequences of decades if not centuries of messed up priorities and poverty. Iranians can think what they want, but the world moves on with or without them. Islam is not going to save them from suffering as a third-world nation. There's no hope for a nation that is not willing to change. Emam Zaman will not come. Allah Akbar will not work. Marg bar this, marg bar that is not gonna work. Reza Pahlavi will not take Iran back to shah's era. Shahram Homayoon is not gonna save Iran. VOA, BBC, Farsi1 and .... are not the answer to our problems.
And no, Iranian youth are NOT brave. Very few of them might be, but they're a very small fraction and small fractions don't really count.
Mousavi and Karoubi asked people to come to the streets and got arrested. The same people that were chanting "Mousavi dastgir beshe, Iran ghiamat mishe" backed down and went home. That's not Mousavi's fault.
When you're on a strike in your company and the leader of your strike gets fired, you're not really supposed to go back to work and pretend like nothing has happened.
In any case, these things are irrelevant to the grand picture which is of Sepah's absolute dominance over Iran. It wouldn't have mattered if people showed up in millions or thousands. Sepah would've unleashed tanks and bombers on them. We are seeing examples of Sepah's work in Syria.
It was a lose/lose situation from day one. It's still a lose-lose situation. These are the consequences of decades if not centuries of messed up priorities and poverty. Iranians can think what they want, but the world moves on with or without them. Islam is not going to save them from suffering as a third-world nation. There's no hope for a nation that is not willing to change. Emam Zaman will not come. Allah Akbar will not work. Marg bar this, marg bar that is not gonna work. Reza Pahlavi will not take Iran back to shah's era. Shahram Homayoon is not gonna save Iran. VOA, BBC, Farsi1 and .... are not the answer to our problems.
And no, Iranian youth are NOT brave. Very few of them might be, but they're a very small fraction and small fractions don't really count.
Oh, I didn't mean you personally my good sir - just talking generalities (for which I always use "we" - as in we Iranians in general). The last two "you" questions didn't mean you specifically either, although I'd be interested to know what you think. They're for any you's who read the post and like to answer them. 
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Come on bro, that was two years after the events we're talking about!!! Of course, no one's going to give a shit about these guys, after they repeatedly didn't deliver what they said they would and repeatedly said they're there to save the regime and VF. Don't tell me you're disappointed that people didn't actually go out and get shot for these two clowns! Would you have?!
And if you think Iranian youth are bi-gheyrat, just remember how we were all feeling (yeah, I know, we're no spring chickens any more) watching the events from far away and how some of us wanted to even go back and join the revolution how everyone was chipping in and doing whatever they could, whether it was DNS attacks or just spreading the news. Don't think that those feelings and that longing for something better had died in any of us. And even if it has died in us far away, it has only become stronger in people who have to deal with it daily. When the spark starts, you'll see how gheyrati all of us will be again!
:chat:
And yes, Sepah is strong and ruthless, but everything has a price and at some point people will be willing to pay that price because they have little to lose. Revolutions in a country of 70 million isn't going to happen with a few hundred lives, but it would have been over before the loss of life got to a few thousand - just like in Egypt and in Iran in 1979. There's absolutely no way Iran would have or will become Syria. Both in Syria and Libya the people in the capitals were/are behind the regime and supporting it because they stood to lose much from the uprising. that's not the case in countries like Iran, Egypt, Tunisia, or Eastern Bloc countries. In these countries the regime would first lose the support of the capital and your forces can not continue to fight street battles with you own people in an economically crippled capital.
And if you think Iranian youth are bi-gheyrat, just remember how we were all feeling (yeah, I know, we're no spring chickens any more) watching the events from far away and how some of us wanted to even go back and join the revolution
how everyone was chipping in and doing whatever they could, whether it was DNS attacks or just spreading the news. Don't think that those feelings and that longing for something better had died in any of us. And even if it has died in us far away, it has only become stronger in people who have to deal with it daily. When the spark starts, you'll see how gheyrati all of us will be again! :chat:
And yes, Sepah is strong and ruthless, but everything has a price and at some point people will be willing to pay that price because they have little to lose. Revolutions in a country of 70 million isn't going to happen with a few hundred lives, but it would have been over before the loss of life got to a few thousand - just like in Egypt and in Iran in 1979. There's absolutely no way Iran would have or will become Syria. Both in Syria and Libya the people in the capitals were/are behind the regime and supporting it because they stood to lose much from the uprising. that's not the case in countries like Iran, Egypt, Tunisia, or Eastern Bloc countries. In these countries the regime would first lose the support of the capital and your forces can not continue to fight street battles with you own people in an economically crippled capital.
I personally think that if it was not Mousavi who on the night of election said, "tasmime in sahne arayee khatranak nemisham", then there would not have been any protests. Every time MHM called people to protest, they did.
I also do not think that he is a clown. He has had an idiotic past, but when i look at other clowns that are suppose to be our opposition figures, I choose him and many of the people surroundings him. The key in my opinion is the Kian circle. You do not understand Western political philosophy, you do not understand democracy. That is what makes these people look more progressed to me. On other hand, looking other opposition, they remind me of Khamenei but in different clothes: People who talk about democracy in Iran but their actions illustrate they are encloset khameneis, who in case of being on power wont do anything different than him.
I also do not think that he is a clown. He has had an idiotic past, but when i look at other clowns that are suppose to be our opposition figures, I choose him and many of the people surroundings him. The key in my opinion is the Kian circle. You do not understand Western political philosophy, you do not understand democracy. That is what makes these people look more progressed to me. On other hand, looking other opposition, they remind me of Khamenei but in different clothes: People who talk about democracy in Iran but their actions illustrate they are encloset khameneis, who in case of being on power wont do anything different than him.
Feyenoord jaan, even if that sentence and statement was genuine (which I'm still not convinced), his beef was only with AN, not with VF. He's just not the revolutionary or leader many people have and continue to make him. He was always pro IR, pro VF, pro Emam and committed to the revolution (the 1st one ).
I think this is a case of us having seen what we wanted to see, rather than seeing things for what they were. Please watch this video (his first televised interview after the elections) and tell me if you still have the same impression of him afterward. This is 4 months after the elections and while the struggle was still going on pretty hard:
[video=youtube_share;miU0q1qLQVw]http://youtu.be/miU0q1qLQVw[/video]
). I think this is a case of us having seen what we wanted to see, rather than seeing things for what they were. Please watch this video (his first televised interview after the elections) and tell me if you still have the same impression of him afterward. This is 4 months after the elections and while the struggle was still going on pretty hard:
[video=youtube_share;miU0q1qLQVw]http://youtu.be/miU0q1qLQVw[/video]
جناب
بخاطر اینکه موسوی و کروبی ورقهای سوخته هستند
کسی به ورقهای سوخته اهمیتی نمیدهد اگر فردا مثلا اقای اکس بلند شود و بتواند صدها هزار ایرانی را برای هفته ها به خیابانها بیاورد و غرب کم کم احساس کند که
ممکن است اقای اکس انقلاب کند
باور کنید چنان رسانه های غربی از اکس می نویسند و می شنویدو می خوانید که سوریه و افغانستان و عراق ماقبل تاریخ می شوند
امریکا تا از چیزی حداقل هفتاد هشتاد درصد مطمئا نباشد نمی اید و خودش را زشت کند
نگاه کنید الان سوریه چون امریکا می داند ارتش به بشار اسد وفادار است با قدرت برخورد نکرده است
چه رسد به موسوی و کروبی که انزمان هم که خیلی ادعایشان می شد روزبرزو طرفدارانشان عقب نشینی میکردند
انتظار نداشته باش غربیها از یک ترسو برای تو قهرمان بسازند
کسی نمیتواند قهرمانی را بسازد بجز خود قهرمان !!!ا
موسوی و کروبی
حالا کروبی یکم دل و جراتی داشت بخاطر عمامه اش که در جمهوری اسلامی و بین عوام احترامی دارد
موسوی چه بود ؟
هیچ
بخاطر اینکه موسوی و کروبی ورقهای سوخته هستند
کسی به ورقهای سوخته اهمیتی نمیدهد اگر فردا مثلا اقای اکس بلند شود و بتواند صدها هزار ایرانی را برای هفته ها به خیابانها بیاورد و غرب کم کم احساس کند که
ممکن است اقای اکس انقلاب کند
باور کنید چنان رسانه های غربی از اکس می نویسند و می شنویدو می خوانید که سوریه و افغانستان و عراق ماقبل تاریخ می شوند
امریکا تا از چیزی حداقل هفتاد هشتاد درصد مطمئا نباشد نمی اید و خودش را زشت کند
نگاه کنید الان سوریه چون امریکا می داند ارتش به بشار اسد وفادار است با قدرت برخورد نکرده است
چه رسد به موسوی و کروبی که انزمان هم که خیلی ادعایشان می شد روزبرزو طرفدارانشان عقب نشینی میکردند
انتظار نداشته باش غربیها از یک ترسو برای تو قهرمان بسازند
کسی نمیتواند قهرمانی را بسازد بجز خود قهرمان !!!ا
موسوی و کروبی
حالا کروبی یکم دل و جراتی داشت بخاطر عمامه اش که در جمهوری اسلامی و بین عوام احترامی دارد
موسوی چه بود ؟
هیچ
Again this Mozdor wants to earn his pay check. Question is about Human Rights and not them being hero or not. By the way, what happened to your yesterday's hero AN, don't worry the same out come is awaiting for your Arbabhayat, soon will be Ali Geda turn and his Bayt. I have asked you this question once before, the reason that you ONLY post your comments is so Arbabhayat can see your work then you could get paid for it.
