The notion that Sepah can simply overtake the country after Khamenie is gone is a gross oversimplification of balance power in Iran
This assumption comes form the general belief that all clerics are stupid. Case and Point a very prominent and well respected
member here (BiHornar) who kept insisting Khamenie has a lower IQ than an average Iranian.
if anything we can take a look at the 8 year war and how Figures in Tehran always insisted
they will end the war with a Diplomatic solution. They had plenty of chances to end the war after massive military victories but refused to do so.
There is an overwhelming thesis among Sepah that Hashemi, Khamenie and Ahmad Khomeni preferred for the armed forces to be in weak position the war official ends.
To be sure after Khamenie dies (5-20 years from now), Sepah will be a player in determining the next governing regime.
But the notion that Sepah itself is a cohesive unit is misguided. Just take a look at Ali Fazli's interview with Shenasnameh.
Fazli is deputy Commander of Basij. At multiple points he praises Hashemi. This is while a few weeks Ago Ex- Commander of Sepah Safavi and current Commander َAziz Jafari had a public feud with Hashemi.
Sadegh Mahsooli the ex Interior Minister for AhmadiNejad is on records having a public rift with Qalibaf.
If any thing showed a us a year ago political forces in I.R have plenty of damning documents against all military commanders and their disposal.
Remember Two Months ago when Hashmei conveniently released documents that showed khomeni commissioned the head of Artesh ZahirNejad to head a commission to investigate military failure of Sepah Commanders (including General Rahim Safavi). At the same time documents were released showing Sadegh Mahsooli's incompetence as a commander when the Mersad Operation occurred.
Khamenie and Hashemi (originally) have modeled Iranian Armed forces structure sort of from the U.S. The Military Commanders almost without exception
have termed appointments. In Fact in less than a 1.5 year both the Military and Sepah's head will be replaced per previous schedule. The Military has it's own counter intelligence. Sepah has its own Intelligence Agency, the Police has its own Intelligence apparatus and then we have Intelligence ministry. This is almost certainly a total copy of the U.S seven distinct intelligence Agencies. All These units are designed to monitor each other to a large degree rather than an External force.
There is also this very fact that Sepah by design has been created as disperse organization.
Rahbar has his own representative in Sepah, Artesh and Niroo Entezami. and from all photos you can see
that representative is always present in all leadership meetings.
It is no accident that Khamenie makes a point of installing every Sepah Commander himself. He Even Makes the point of Installing the head of every provinces Sepah Commander Himself. this is to ensure There is no unity of Command at peace-time in Sepah.
You can also look at the history of magically Iranian commanders dying. these could have been externally planned, could have been accidents. or could have been planned by the political establishment. The Political establishment in IR always finds a way to tame Armed forces.
the Crash C-130 that killed General Fallahi (head of Artesh), General Fakoori (former head of Airforce), Jahan Ara (Sepah's Commander in Khoramshahr and Abadan), kolah dooz Head of Sepah.
Chamran being shot in the back of head while he intended to run for president.
the mysterious AntiAircraft fire that killed Babaie the head of Airforce when he had grown to be a popular figure.
the mysterious crash of َAhmad Kazemi and other Sepah commanders.
the mysterious explosion that killed Tehrani Sepah's Head Missile program.
